
@article{nossalInternationalSanctionsInternational1989,
	title = {International {Sanctions} as {International} {Punishment}},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {00208183, 15315088},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2706704},
	abstract = {Much of the contemporary literature on the utility of international sanctions approaches the apparent riddle of why sanctions are embraced so eagerly when they are supposedly such an "ineffective" tool of statecraft by focusing on the instrumental and rational purposes of sanctions. As a result, one purpose that does not always lend itself to a rational means-end calculus--the purpose of punishment--tends to be overlooked or, more commonly, dismissed outright. This article explores punishment as both a useful and an effective purpose of international sanctions. It argues not only that sanctions should be distinguished from other forms of hurtful statecraft but also that they are a form of "international punishment" for wrongdoing, despite the difficulties of applying the term "punishment" in the context of international relations. The article then examines the purposes of punishment and reveals that only some are understandable when a model of means-end rationality is used, suggesting that the element of the nonrational also plays an important role in international sanctions. The argument is then applied to the case of U.S. sanctions imposed after the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan to demonstrate the different purposes of punishment at work in this case. The article concludes that just as we cannot understand punishment as a purposive human activity solely by reference to a rational model of a means to a clearly delineated end, so too we cannot entirely understand sanctions as a form of international punishment by an attachment to a rational model of policy behavior. However, some forms of punishment are exceedingly effective, and this may explain why sanctions continue to be a popular instrument of statecraft.},
	number = {2},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Nossal, Kim Richard},
	year = {1989},
	pages = {301--322},
}

@article{finnemoreInternationalNormDynamics1998,
	title = {International {Norm} {Dynamics} and {Political} {Change}},
	volume = {52},
	issn = {00208183, 15315088},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2601361},
	abstract = {Norms have never been absent from the study of international politics, but the sweeping "ideational turn" in the 1980s and 1990s brought them back as a central theoretical concern in the field. Much theorizing about norms has focused on how they create social structure, standards of appropriateness, and stability in international politics. Recent empirical research on norms, in contrast, has examined their role in creating political change, but change processes have been less well-theorized. We induce from this research a variety of theoretical arguments and testable hypotheses about the role of norms in political change. We argue that norms evolve in a three-stage "life cycle" of emergence, "norm cascades," and internalization, and that each stage is governed by different motives, mechanisms, and behavioral logics. We also highlight the rational and strategic nature of many social construction processes and argue that theoretical progress will only be made by placing attention on the connections between norms and rationality rather than by opposing the two.},
	number = {4},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Finnemore, Martha and Sikkink, Kathryn},
	year = {1998},
	pages = {887--917},
}

@article{hurdLegitimacyAuthorityInternational1999,
	title = {Legitimacy and {Authority} in {International} {Politics}},
	volume = {53},
	issn = {00208183, 15315088},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2601393},
	abstract = {The idea that the legitimacy of international institutions affects state behavior is increasingly common in discussions of international relations, and yet little has been said about what the term legitimacy means or how it works. This is peculiar, since legitimacy is widely cited in domestic social studies as a major reason, along with coercion and self-interest, that actors obey rules. I examine the concept of legitimacy, defined as the internalization of an external rule, as it is used in domestic studies and in international relations, and find that the existence of institutions that states accept as legitimate has important implications for theories of international relations. Using the norms of sovereign nonintervention as an illustration, I compare coercion, self-interest, and legitimacy as three motivations for rule-following by states. Self-interest and coercion, alone or together, are insufficient to sustain the pattern of behavior we recognize as the system of sovereign states. The degree of settledness of borders, especially among states of unequal power, indicates that the institution of sovereignty owes part of its persistence to the widespread acceptance by states of the norms of sovereignty as legitimate. This is important for international relations because the existence of legitimate rules signals the presence of authority, which is inconsistent with the received image of the international system as anarchic. I conclude the article by charting a course of further research into the ideas of legitimacy, authority, and anarchy.},
	number = {2},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Hurd, Ian},
	year = {1999},
	pages = {379--408},
}

@article{risseLetsArgueCommunicative2000,
	title = {Let's {Argue}! {Communicative} {Action} in {World} {Politics}},
	volume = {54},
	issn = {00208183, 15315088},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2601316},
	abstract = {This article introduces a mode of social action and interaction that has so far been largely overlooked in the U.S.-dominated international relations debate between rational choice and social constructivism that focuses mainly on the differences between instrumental rationality and norm-guided behavior. Drawing on insights from a theoretical debate within the German-speaking international relations community, I suggest that actors have a third mode of social action at their disposal: arguing and deliberating about the validity claims inherent in any communicative statement about identities, interests, and the state of the world. Arguing and truth-seeking behavior presuppose that actors no longer hold fixed interests during their communicative interaction but are open to persuasion, challenges, and counterchallenges geared toward reaching a reasoned consensus. The preconditions for argumentative rationality, particularly a "common lifeworld" and the mutual recognition of speakers as equals in a nonhierarchical relationship, are more common in international relations than is usually assumed. Arguing processes are more likely to occur the more actors are uncertain about their interests and even identities, the less they know about the situation in which they find themselves and the underlying "rules of the game," and the more apparently irreconcilable differences prevent them from reaching an optimal rather than a merely satisfactory solution for a widely perceived problem ("problem solving"). Moreover, arguing is likely to increase the influence of the materially less powerful, be it small states or nonstate actors such as INGOs. I illustrate these claims empirically with two plausibility probes. The first concerns the East-West talks leading to a negotiated settlement of the Cold War in Europe and German unification within NATO. The second case focuses on the implementation of international human rights norms into domestic practices of Third World states.},
	number = {1},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Risse, Thomas},
	year = {2000},
	pages = {1--39},
}

@article{keohaneDemocracyEnhancingMultilateralism2009,
	title = {Democracy-{Enhancing} {Multilateralism}},
	volume = {63},
	issn = {00208183, 15315088},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/40071882},
	abstract = {International organizations are widely believed to undermine domestic democracy. Our analysis challenges this conventional wisdom, arguing that multilateral institutions can enhance the quality of national democratic processes, even in well- functioning democracies, in a number of important ways: by restricting the power of special interest factions, protecting individual rights, and improving the quality of democratic deliberation, while also increasing capacities to achieve important public purposes. The article discusses conflicts and complementarities between multilateralism and democracy, outlines a working conception of constitutional democracy, elaborates theoretically the ways in which multilateral institutions can enhance constitutional democracy, and discusses the empirical conditions under which multilateralism is most likely to have net democratic benefits, using contemporary examples to illustrate the analysis. The overall aim is to articulate a set of critical democratic standards appropriate for evaluating and helping to guide the reform of international institutions.},
	number = {1},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Keohane, Robert O. and Macedo, Stephen and Moravcsik, Andrew},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {1--31},
}

@article{renshonLosingFaceSinking2015,
	title = {Losing {Face} and {Sinking} {Costs}: {Experimental} {Evidence} on the {Judgment} of {Political} and {Military} {Leaders}},
	volume = {69},
	issn = {0020-8183},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/article/losing-face-and-sinking-costs-experimental-evidence-on-the-judgment-of-political-and-military-leaders/ABCA8FF65CE5049DE37A512AF01C13BB},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818315000107},
	abstract = {Abstract
Status has long been implicated as a critical value of states and leaders in international politics. However, decades of research on the link between status and conflict have yielded divergent findings, and little evidence of a causal relationship. I attempt to resolve this impasse by shifting the focus from status to relative status concerns in building a theory of status from the ground up, beginning with its behavioral microfoundations. I build on and extend previous work through an experimental study of status threats and the escalation of commitment, operationalized here as a new behavioral escalation task using real financial incentives and framed around a narrative of war and peace. I utilize a unique sample of high-profile political and military leaders from the Senior Executive Fellow (SEF) program at the Harvard Kennedy School, as well as a group of demographically matched control subjects, allowing me to evaluate the moderating effect of power on status concerns while also addressing typical concerns about external validity in IR experiments. I find strong evidence that the fear of losing status impedes decision making and increases the tendency to “throw good money after bad,” but that power aids decision making by buffering high-power subjects against the worst effects of status loss.},
	number = {3},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Renshon, Jonathan},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {659--695},
}

@article{joCanInternationalCriminal2016,
	title = {Can the {International} {Criminal} {Court} {Deter} {Atrocity}?},
	volume = {70},
	issn = {0020-8183},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/article/can-the-international-criminal-court-deter-atrocity/0A64E6F29E839427A0A5398EBD2273CB},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818316000114},
	abstract = {Abstract
Whether and how violence can be controlled to spare innocent lives is a central issue in international relations. The most ambitious effort to date has been the International Criminal Court (ICC), designed to enhance security and safety by preventing egregious human rights abuses and deterring international crimes. We offer the first systematic assessment of the ICC's deterrent effects for both state and nonstate actors. Although no institution can deter all actors, the ICC can deter some governments and those rebel groups that seek legitimacy. We find support for this conditional impact of the ICC cross-nationally. Our work has implications for the study of international relations and institutions, and supports the violence-reducing role of pursuing justice in international affairs.},
	number = {3},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Jo, Hyeran and Simmons, Beth A.},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {443--475},
}

@article{corbettaCooperativeAntagonisticNetworks2013,
	title = {Cooperative and {Antagonistic} {Networks}: {Multidimensional} {Affinity} and {Intervention} in {Ongoing} {Conflicts}, 1946–20011},
	volume = {57},
	issn = {1468-2478},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12020},
	doi = {10.1111/isqu.12020},
	abstract = {Corbetta, Renato. (2012) Cooperative and Antagonistic Networks: Multidimensional Affinity and Intervention in Ongoing Conflicts, 1946–2001. International Studies Quarterly, doi: 10.1111/isqu.12020 © 2012 International Studies AssociationIn recent years (social) network approaches have been gaining ground in the field of international relations. Networks between states effectively explain patterns of international conflict and cooperation. One issue where conflict and cooperation converge—and where network analysis finds fruitful application—is the issue of third-party states’ intervention in conflicts. This study investigates whether, and how, conflict expands in the international social space through the cooperative and antagonistic networks generated by states’ supportive and oppositional interventions in international disputes. The study adopts a sociological theory of social units’ interaction in the social space as a function of their multidimensional affinity to investigate further how such networks form. The hypotheses derived from this theoretical framework are tested using data on third-party non-neutral intervention in post-World War II militarized interstate disputes from Corbetta and Dixon (2005). Proximity in the international social space effectively predicts the creation of cooperative ties (supportive interventions) between states, while social distance predicts antagonistic ties (oppositional interventions).},
	number = {2},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Corbetta, Renato},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {370--384},
}

@book{waltzTheoryInternationalPolitics1979,
	address = {Boston, Mass},
	edition = {1st ed},
	title = {Theory of {International} {Politics}},
	isbn = {978-0-07-554852-2},
	publisher = {McGraw-Hill},
	author = {Waltz, Kenneth N.},
	year = {1979},
	keywords = {International relations, Philosophy},
}

@article{mutzImpactIngroupFavoritism2017,
	title = {The {Impact} of {In}-group {Favoritism} on {Trade} {Preferences}},
	volume = {71},
	issn = {0020-8183},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/article/impact-of-ingroup-favoritism-on-trade-preferences/09211BA1A10779133C46428819AA9571},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818317000327},
	abstract = {Abstract
Using a population-based survey experiment, this study evaluates the role of in-group favoritism in influencing American attitudes toward international trade. By systematically altering which countries gain or lose from a given trade policy (Americans and/or people in trading partner countries), we vary the role that in-group favoritism should play in influencing preferences.
Our results provide evidence of two distinct forms of in-group favoritism. The first, and least surprising, is that Americans value the well-being of other Americans more than that of people outside their own country. Rather than maximize total gains, Americans choose policies that maximize in-group well-being. This tendency is exacerbated by a sense of national superiority; Americans favor their national in-group to a greater extent if they perceive Americans to be more deserving.
Second, high levels of perceived intergroup competition lead some Americans to prefer trade policies that benefit the in-group and hurt the out-group over policies that help both their own country and the trading partner country. For a policy to elicit support, it is important not only that the US benefits, but also that the trading partner country loses so that the US achieves a greater relative advantage. We discuss the implications of these findings for understanding bipartisan public opposition to trade.},
	number = {4},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Mutz, Diana C. and Kim, Eunji},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {827--850},
}

@book{morgenthauPoliticsNationsStruggle1948,
	address = {New York},
	title = {Politics among nations: the struggle for power and peace},
	isbn = {978-0-394-54101-3 978-0-394-33564-3},
	shorttitle = {Politics among nations},
	publisher = {Knopf},
	author = {Morgenthau, Hans J.},
	year = {1948},
	keywords = {International relations},
	annote = {Maps on lining papers Includes index},
	annote = {Maps on lining papers Includes index},
	annote = {Maps on lining papers Includes index},
}

@book{fujiiKillingNeighborsWebs2009,
	address = {Ithaca},
	title = {Killing neighbors: webs of violence in {Rwanda}},
	isbn = {978-0-8014-4705-1},
	shorttitle = {Killing neighbors},
	publisher = {Cornell University Press},
	author = {Fujii, Lee Ann},
	year = {2009},
	note = {OCLC: 241304747},
	keywords = {Civil War, 1994, Ethnic relations, Genocide, History Atrocities, Rwanda, Civil War, 1990-1993, Ethnic conflict, Political violence, Violence, 1994, Civil War, 1990-1993},
	annote = {Conducting fieldwork in the aftermath of war and genocide -- Violence and identity in historical perspective -- Local narratives and explanations -- The enigma of ethnicity -- The power of local ties -- The logic of groups},
	annote = {Conducting fieldwork in the aftermath of war and genocide -- Violence and identity in historical perspective -- Local narratives and explanations -- The enigma of ethnicity -- The power of local ties -- The logic of groups},
	annote = {Conducting fieldwork in the aftermath of war and genocide -- Violence and identity in historical perspective -- Local narratives and explanations -- The enigma of ethnicity -- The power of local ties -- The logic of groups},
}

@article{silberzahnCrowdsourcedResearchMany2015,
	title = {Crowdsourced research: {Many} hands make tight work},
	volume = {526},
	issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
	shorttitle = {Crowdsourced research},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/526189a},
	doi = {10.1038/526189a},
	number = {7572},
	urldate = {2018-04-16},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Silberzahn, Raphael and Uhlmann, Eric L.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {189--191},
}

@article{sunsteinSocialNormsSocial1996,
	title = {Social {Norms} and {Social} {Roles}},
	volume = {96},
	issn = {00101958},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/1123430?origin=crossref},
	doi = {10.2307/1123430},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2018-04-16},
	journal = {Columbia Law Review},
	author = {Sunstein, Cass R.},
	month = may,
	year = {1996},
	pages = {903},
}

@article{ruggieInternationalRegimesTransactions1982,
	title = {International regimes, transactions, and change: embedded liberalism in the postwar economic order},
	volume = {36},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {International regimes, transactions, and change},
	url = {http://www.journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0020818300018993},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818300018993},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2018-10-16},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Ruggie, John Gerard},
	year = {1982},
	pages = {379--415},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/GTZC9DDP/Ruggie - 1982 - International regimes, transactions, and change e.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{galtungEffectsInternationalEconomic1967,
	title = {On the {Effects} of {International} {Economic} {Sanctions}, {With} {Examples} from the {Case} of {Rhodesia}},
	volume = {19},
	issn = {0043-8871, 1086-3338},
	url = {http://www.journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0043887100000770},
	doi = {10.2307/2009785},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2018-10-02},
	journal = {World Politics},
	author = {Galtung, Johan},
	year = {1967},
	pages = {378--416},
}

@article{mcleanPoliticalRelationsLeader2018,
	title = {Political {Relations}, {Leader} {Stability}, and {Economic} {Coercion}},
	volume = {62},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqy008},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {McLean, Elena and Radtke, Mitchell},
	month = jun,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {357--370},
}

@book{bierstekerTargetedSanctionsImpacts2016a,
	address = {Cambridge},
	title = {Targeted {Sanctions}: {The} {Impacts} and {Effectiveness} of {United} {Nations} {Action}},
	isbn = {978-1-316-46029-0},
	shorttitle = {Targeted {Sanctions}},
	urldate = {2018-10-02},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	editor = {Biersteker, Thomas J. and Eckert, Sue E. and Tourinho, Marcos},
	year = {2016},
	doi = {10.1017/CBO9781316460290},
}

@article{baileyEstimatingDynamicState2017,
	title = {Estimating {Dynamic} {State} {Preferences} from {United} {Nations} {Voting} {Data}},
	volume = {61},
	issn = {0022-0027, 1552-8766},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002715595700},
	doi = {10.1177/0022002715595700},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2018-09-22},
	journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Bailey, Michael A. and Strezhnev, Anton and Voeten, Erik},
	month = feb,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {430--456},
}

@article{grauvogelSanctionsSignalsHow2017,
	title = {Sanctions and {Signals}: {How} {International} {Sanction} {Threats} {Trigger} {Domestic} {Protest} in {Targeted} {Regimes}},
	volume = {61},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	shorttitle = {Sanctions and {Signals}},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqw044},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2018-09-07},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Grauvogel, Julia and Licht, Amanda A. and von Soest, Christian},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {86--97},
}

@article{morganThreatImpositionEconomic2014,
	title = {Threat and imposition of economic sanctions 1945–2005: {Updating} the {TIES} dataset},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {0738-8942, 1549-9219},
	shorttitle = {Threat and imposition of economic sanctions 1945–2005},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0738894213520379},
	doi = {10.1177/0738894213520379},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2018-09-07},
	journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
	author = {Morgan, T. Clifton and Bapat, Navin and Kobayashi, Yoshiharu},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {541--558},
}

@incollection{dreznerEconomicSanctionsTheory2018,
	address = {Oxford, UK},
	title = {Economic {Sanctions} in {Theory} and {Practice}: {How} {Smart} {Are} {They}?},
	isbn = {978-0-19-084633-6 978-0-19-084634-3},
	abstract = {"A state's power to compel or deter other states to either act or refrain from acting has been a foundational source of world politics since the time of Thucydides. Yet the specific features of deterrence and compellence constantly change in accordance with historical development. In our own lifetimes, for instance, the rising significance of non-state actors and the increasing influence of regional powers have dramatically transformed international politics since the height of the Cold War. Yet much of the existing literature on deterrence and compellence continues to draw, whether implicitly or explicitly, upon assumptions and precepts formulated in a state-centric, bipolar world. Although contemporary coercion frequently features multiple coercers targeting state and non-state adversaries with non-military instruments of persuasion, most literature on coercion still focuses primarily on cases where a single state is trying to coerce another single state via traditional military means. In The Power to Hurt, the leading international relations scholars Kelly M. Greenhill and Peter Krause have gathered together an eminent cast of contributors (e.g., Bob Art, Dan Drezner, Alex Downes, Erik Gartzke, and others) to produce what promises to be a field-shaping work on one of IR's most essential subjects: coercion, whether in the form of compellence, deterrence, or a mix of the two. The volume moves beyond these traditional premises and examines the critical issue of coercion in the 21st century, capturing fresh theoretical and policy relevant developments and drawing upon data and cases from across time and around the globe" --},
	booktitle = {Coercion: the power to hurt in international politics},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Drezner, Daniel W.},
	editor = {Greenhill, Kelly M. and Krause, Peter},
	year = {2018},
	keywords = {International relations, Deterrence (Strategy), Intervention (International law), Security, International},
	pages = {251--270},
}

@article{hawkinsQuestioningComprehensiveSanctions2003,
	title = {Questioning comprehensive sanctions: the birth of a norm},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {1475-4835, 1475-4843},
	shorttitle = {Questioning comprehensive sanctions},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1475483032000133088},
	doi = {10.1080/1475483032000133088},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2018-11-15},
	journal = {Journal of Human Rights},
	author = {Hawkins, Darren and Lloyd, Joshua},
	month = sep,
	year = {2003},
	pages = {441--454},
}

@incollection{bierstekerThinkingUnitedNations2016,
	address = {Cambridge},
	title = {Thinking about {United} {Nations} sanctions},
	isbn = {978-1-316-46029-0},
	urldate = {2018-10-02},
	booktitle = {Targeted {Sanctions}: {The} {Impacts} and {Effectiveness} of {United} {Nations} {Action}},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Biersteker, Thomas J. and Eckert, Sue E. and Tourinho, Marcos},
	editor = {Biersteker, Thomas J. and Eckert, Sue E. and Tourinho, Marcos},
	year = {2016},
	doi = {10.1017/CBO9781316460290},
	pages = {11--37},
}

@incollection{giumelliPurposesTargetedSanctions2016,
	address = {Cambridge},
	title = {The purposes of targeted sanctions},
	isbn = {978-1-316-46029-0},
	urldate = {2018-10-02},
	booktitle = {Targeted {Sanctions}: {The} {Impacts} and {Effectiveness} of {United} {Nations} {Action}},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Giumelli, Francesco},
	editor = {Biersteker, Thomas J. and Eckert, Sue E. and Tourinho, Marcos},
	year = {2016},
	doi = {10.1017/CBO9781316460290},
	pages = {38--59},
}

@article{dreznerHiddenHandEconomic2003,
	title = {The {Hidden} {Hand} of {Economic} {Coercion}},
	volume = {57},
	issn = {0020-8183},
	url = {T:\Literaturrecherche Coercion (unvollständig)\Bisherige Recherchen in diversen Formaten\Lisa Riegert 11 2018\Coercion-Riegert (Kopie)\Citavi Attachments\Drezner 2003 - The Hidden Hand of Economic.pdf},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818303573052},
	abstract = {Why do policymakers consistently employ economic sanctions even though scholars consider them an ineffective tool of statecraft? Game-theoretic models of economic coercion suggest the success rate may be understated because of selection effects. When the targeted country prefers conceding to incurring the cost of sanctions, it has an incentive to acquiesce before the imposition of sanctions. The bulk of successful coercion episodes should therefore end with sanctions threatened but not imposed. This contradicts the recent literature on sanctions, which assumes that sanctions rarely, if ever, work at generating significant concessions from the targeted country and are imposed for domestic or symbolic political reasons. If the game-theoretic argument is correct, the crucial cases to study are those in which coercion is threatened but not implemented. A statistical analysis of data on sanctions in pursuit of economic or regulatory goals strongly supports the gametheoretic argument. These results suggest that the significance of economic coercion has been undervalued in the study of statecraft and international relations more generally.},
	number = {3},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Drezner, Daniel W.},
	year = {2003},
	pages = {643--659},
}

@article{hultmanSuccessfulCounterproductiveCoercion2017,
	title = {Successful or {Counterproductive} {Coercion}? {The} {Effect} of {International} {Sanctions} on {Conflict} {Intensity}},
	volume = {61},
	issn = {0022-0027, 1552-8766},
	shorttitle = {Successful or {Counterproductive} {Coercion}?},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002715603453},
	doi = {10.1177/0022002715603453},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2019-01-31},
	journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Hultman, Lisa and Peksen, Dursun},
	month = jul,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {1315--1339},
}

@article{farissRespectHumanRights2014a,
	title = {Respect for human rights has improved over time: {Modeling} the changing standard of accountability},
	volume = {108},
	issn = {00030554},
	url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84902366223&doi=10.1017%2fS0003055414000070&partnerID=40&md5=5ff767c7260938b74ad887942a7a2617},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055414000070},
	abstract = {According to indicators of political repression currently used by scholars, human rights practices have not improved over the past 35 years, despite the spread of human rights norms, better monitoring, and the increasing prevalence of electoral democracy. I argue that this empirical pattern is not an indication of stagnating human rights practices. Instead, it reflects a systematic change in the way monitors, like Amnesty International and the U.S. State Department, encounter and interpret information about abuses. The standard of accountability used to assess state behaviors becomes more stringent as monitors look harder for abuse, look in more places for abuse, and classify more acts as abuse. In this article, I present a new, theoretically informed measurement model, which generates unbiased estimates of repression using existing data. I then show that respect for human rights has improved over time and that the relationship between human rights respect and ratification of the UN Convention Against Torture is positive, which contradicts findings from existing research. © American Political Science Association 2014.},
	language = {English},
	number = {2},
	journal = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Fariss, Christopher J.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {297--318},
	annote = {cited By 131},
}

@article{newmanRisingPowersOrder2018,
	title = {Rising powers and order contestation: disaggregating the normative from the representational},
	volume = {39},
	issn = {01436597},
	url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85033406901&doi=10.1080%2f01436597.2017.1392085&partnerID=40&md5=079284254c4baeb6e045ed759fd1651f},
	doi = {10.1080/01436597.2017.1392085},
	abstract = {A central theme of the literature on rising powers is that new aspirants to great power status pose a challenge to the underlying principles and norms that underpin the existing, Western-led order. However, in much of the literature, the nature and significance of rising powers for international order are imprecisely debated, in particular the concept and practice of ‘contestation’. In this article, we aim to establish a distinction between normative contestation and what can be thought of as ‘contestation over representation’: that is, contestation over who is setting and overseeing the rules of the game rather than the content of the rules themselves and the kind of order that they underpin. The paper engages with debates on international order and international society, and its empirical basis is provided by a thorough analysis of the discourse of rising power summitry. © 2017 Southseries Inc., www.thirdworldquarterly.com.},
	language = {English},
	number = {5},
	journal = {Third World Quarterly},
	author = {Newman, E. and Zala, B.},
	year = {2018},
	keywords = {Brazil, China, India, international relations, conceptual framework, foreign policy, empirical analysis, political power, South Africa, Russian Federation},
	pages = {871--888},
	annote = {cited By 2},
}

@article{deitelhoffNormsChallengeUnpacking2019,
	title = {Norms under {Challenge}: {Unpacking} the {Dynamics} of {Norm} {Robustness}},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {2057-3170, 2057-3189},
	shorttitle = {Norms under {Challenge}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/jogss/article/4/1/2/5347906},
	doi = {10.1093/jogss/ogy041},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2019-02-27},
	journal = {Journal of Global Security Studies},
	author = {Deitelhoff, Nicole and Zimmermann, Lisbeth},
	month = jan,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {2--17},
}

@book{morganCounterfactualsCausalInference2015,
	address = {Cambridge},
	series = {Analytical methods for social research},
	title = {Counterfactuals and causal inference: methods and principles for social research},
	isbn = {978-1-107-06507-9 978-1-107-69416-3},
	shorttitle = {Counterfactuals and causal inference},
	abstract = {"In this second edition of Counterfactuals and Causal Inference, completely revised and expanded, the essential features of the counterfactual approach to observational data analysis are presented with examples from the social, demographic, and health sciences. Alternative estimation techniques are first introduced using both the potential outcome model and causal graphs; after which, conditioning techniques, such as matching and regression, are presented from a potential outcomes perspective. For research scenarios in which important determinants of causal exposure are unobserved, alternative techniques, such as instrumental variable estimators, longitudinal methods, and estimation via causal mechanisms, are then presented. The importance of causal effect heterogeneity is stressed throughout the book, and the need for deep causal explanation via mechanisms is discussed"--},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Morgan, Stephen L. and Winship, Christopher},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {Methodology, Social sciences, Research, Causation, MATHEMATICS / Probability \& Statistics / General},
	annote = {Machine generated contents note: Part I. Causality and Empirical Research in the Social Sciences: 1. Introduction; Part II. Counterfactuals, Potential Outcomes, and Causal Graphs: 2. Counterfactuals and the potential-outcome model; 3. Causal graphs; Part III. Estimating Causal Effects by Conditioning on Observed Variables to Block Backdoor Paths: 4. Models of causal exposure and identification criteria for conditioning estimators; 5. Matching estimators of causal effects; 6. Regression estimators of causal effects; 7. Weighted regression estimators of causal effects; Part IV. Estimating Causal Effects When Backdoor Conditioning is Ineffective: 8. Self-selection, heterogeneity, and causal graphs; 9. Instrumental-variable estimators of causal effects; 10. Mechanisms and causal explanation; 11. Repeated observations and the estimation of causal effects; Part V. Estimation When Causal Effects Are Not Point Identified by Observables: 12. Distributional assumptions, set identification, and sensitivity analysis; Part VI. Conclusions: 13. Counterfactuals and the future of empirical research in observational social science},
	annote = {Revised edition of the authors' Counterfactuals and causal inference, published in 2007},
}

@incollection{brzoskaSecurityCouncilDynamics2016,
	address = {Cambridge},
	title = {Security {Council} dynamics and sanctions design},
	isbn = {978-1-107-13421-8},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/targeted-sanctions/security-council-dynamics-and-sanctions-design/CD951F1CD315A605DD8C512DE571E476},
	abstract = {In 2003 David Malone pointed out that the Security Council as a decision-making body had become both more operational and more professionalized after 1990, as the complexities of issues in peace and security before the United Nations increased throughout the decade. Prominent among the tools of choice for the Council in dealing with international crises – or in UN language, ‘threats to international peace and security’ – was the imposition and maintenance of economic sanctions. Andrea Charron has noted the Council's resort to targeted sanctions involved organizational learning and included the evolution of language and scope of purpose to be more consistent across cases. Thus, the sanctions regimes which had emerged by 2010, she argued, could be classified into four distinct thematic areas: ending violence, promoting democracy and human rights, dealing with terrorism, and controlling nuclear proliferation.In the course of this evolution, Susan C. Hulton documented that the Council became more organizationally focused and cooperative as a decision-making body, and the Council's relatively frequent imposition of sanctions would appear consistent with this pattern. One of her more significant findings for the period 1992–2003 was the declining use of the veto and increased dialogue and cooperation among the Permanent Five (P5) Security Council members, and among the P5 nations and elected Member States. In particular, she notes the dramatic increase in outreach and interaction of the Council members as they receive substantive briefings on a variety of issues and an increased volume of information from the Secretariat, UN agencies, and non-governmental organizations.More recent analysis and our own direct observations also verify increased degrees of informal dialogue, as well improvements due to the information and technological upgrading that UN staff and branches received during this time period. A number of the discrete Council sanctions votes and the general momentum to continued recourse to sanctions were aided by one of the Council's own creations, the Informal Working Group on General Issues of Sanctions, which, from 2000 to 2007, held ongoing seminars, produced various non-papers on sanctions trends and techniques, and documented both best practices and new recommendations for improving sanctions design and effectiveness.The meetings of the Group and other Member State–sponsored seminars and reports led to increased transparency and improvements in the real substantive knowledge held by Council Members of increasingly complex sanctions and evasion techniques.},
	booktitle = {Targeted {Sanctions}: {The} {Impacts} and {Effectiveness} of {United} {Nations} {Action}},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Brzoska, Michael and Lopez, George A.},
	editor = {Tourinho, Marcos and Eckert, Sue E. and Biersteker, Thomas J.},
	year = {2016},
	doi = {10.1017/CBO9781316460290.004},
	pages = {60--78},
}

@incollection{bierstekerThinkingUnitedNations2016a,
	address = {Cambridge},
	title = {Thinking about {United} {Nations} targeted sanctions},
	isbn = {978-1-107-13421-8},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/targeted-sanctions/thinking-about-united-nations-targeted-sanctions/EC25883AFFEC4E28BC7237CC6939F899},
	abstract = {The use of targeted sanctions by the UN Security Council (UNSC) has gone through significant transformation over the past twenty-five years. Following the devastating humanitarian consequences of the comprehensive trade embargo imposed on Iraq in 1990, a substantial review of the design and implementation of sanctions took place. Albeit with some delay, as a response to that policy debacle, the UN Security Council decidedly shifted towards the imposition of targeted, not comprehensive sanctions. In only two instances (the former Yugoslavia in 1992 and Haiti in 1994), the Security Council imposed new comprehensive measures for a period (following targeted ones), but the last time a comprehensive trade embargo was imposed by the UN was in 1994. Today, most international and all UN sanctions are targeted sanctions.Despite this transformation in the use of sanctions, much of the scholarly, policy, and public discussion on the issue remains unchanged. Discussions often fail to distinguish between targeted and comprehensive measures and continue to concentrate exclusively on whether sanctions are able to change the behaviour of targets. Rarely is consideration given to other ways in which sanctions may affect the target or, for example, how they could influence the international norms they are being used to enforce. Explanations of how sanctions should influence a target remain focused on the political outcomes (gain) resulting from economic sanctions (pain), with the implicit assumption that more pain will yield greater gain. The perception that sanctions tend to be ineffective is also widely held, particularly in contrast with expectations about the use of military force. Given the reliance of international actors on targeted sanctions, it is important that conceptual, analytical, and empirical knowledge of sanctions keeps pace with these developments.In the broader context of international sanctions, UN sanctions play a particularly important role. Although unilateral and/or regional sanctions are often important, only those sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council under Chapter VII of the UN Charter are universally applied and legally binding. This is crucial, given that other countries and their commercial entities invariably diminish the impact of unilateral or regional restrictive measures. In addition, UN sanctions carry a legitimating power of their own.},
	booktitle = {Targeted {Sanctions}: {The} {Impacts} and {Effectiveness} of {United} {Nations} {Action}},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Biersteker, Thomas J. and Tourinho, Marcos and Eckert, Sue E.},
	editor = {Tourinho, Marcos and Eckert, Sue E. and Biersteker, Thomas J.},
	year = {2016},
	doi = {10.1017/CBO9781316460290.002},
	pages = {11--37},
}

@article{vonsoestAreDemocraticSanctions2015a,
	title = {Are democratic sanctions really counterproductive?},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {1351-0347, 1743-890X},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2014.888418},
	doi = {10.1080/13510347.2014.888418},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2019-11-06},
	journal = {Democratization},
	author = {von Soest, Christian and Wahman, Michael},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {957--980},
}

@misc{pospiesznaIncentivesCoercionHow2019,
	title = {Incentives and {Coercion}: {How} to {Promote} {Democracy}? {Unpublished} {Working} {Paper}},
	author = {Pospieszna, Paulina and Weber, Patrick M.},
	year = {2019},
}

@article{heinrichSanctionConsequencesCitizen2017a,
	title = {Sanction {Consequences} and {Citizen} {Support}: {A} {Survey} {Experiment}},
	volume = {61},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	shorttitle = {Sanction {Consequences} and {Citizen} {Support}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/isq/sqw019},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqw019},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2020-03-31},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Heinrich, Tobias and Kobayashi, Yoshiharu and Peterson, Timothy M.},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {98--106},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/Q6AER49Q/Heinrich et al. - 2016 - Sanction Consequences and Citizen Support A Surve.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@misc{maliniakJournalArticleDatabase2018,
	title = {Journal {Article} {Database} {Codebook}. {Version} 2.1. {Revised}: 6/11/2018.},
	shorttitle = {{TRIP} {JAD} {Codebook} {V2}.1},
	url = {https://trip.wm.edu/data/replication-and-other-data/TRIP_Journal%20Article%20Database_Codebook2.1.pdf},
	author = {Maliniak, Daniel and Peterson, Susan and Tierney, Michael J.},
	year = {2018},
}

@article{ucdp/prioUCDPPRIOArmed2020,
	title = {{UCDP}/{PRIO} {Armed} {Conflict} {Dataset}, {V19}.1},
	url = {http://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ucdpprio/ucdp-prio-acd-191.csv},
	urldate = {0003-01-01},
	author = {{UCDP/PRIO}},
	year = {2020},
}

@book{nationalacademiesReproducibilityReplicabilityScience2019,
	address = {Washington, D.C.},
	title = {Reproducibility and {Replicability} in {Science}},
	isbn = {978-0-309-48616-3},
	url = {https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25303},
	urldate = {2020-04-08},
	publisher = {National Academies Press},
	author = {{National Academies}},
	year = {2019},
	doi = {10.17226/25303},
	note = {Pages: 25303},
}

@article{coppedgeVDemCodebookV102020,
	title = {V-{Dem} {Codebook} {V10}},
	issn = {1556-5068},
	url = {https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=3557877},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3557877},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2020-04-08},
	journal = {SSRN Electronic Journal},
	author = {Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Knutsen, Carl Henrik and Lindberg, Staffan I. and Teorell, Jan and Altman, David and Bernhard, Michael and Fish, M. Steven and Glynn, Adam and Hicken, Allen and Lührmann, Anna and Marquardt, Kyle M. and McMann, Kelly M. and Paxton, Pamela and Pemstein, Daniel and Seim, Brigitte and Sigman, Rachel and Skaaning, Svend-Erik and Staton, Jeffrey K. and Cornell, Agnes and Gastaldi, Lisa and Gjerløw, Haakon and Mechkova, Valeriya and von Römer, Johannes and Sundström, Aksel and Tzelgov, Eitan and Uberti, Luca Jacopo and Wang, Yi-ting and Wig, Tore and Ziblatt, Daniel},
	year = {2020},
}

@article{peksenWhenImposedEconomic2019,
	title = {When {Do} {Imposed} {Economic} {Sanctions} {Work}? {A} {Critical} {Review} of the {Sanctions} {Effectiveness} {Literature}},
	volume = {30},
	issn = {1024-2694, 1476-8267},
	shorttitle = {When {Do} {Imposed} {Economic} {Sanctions} {Work}?},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10242694.2019.1625250},
	doi = {10.1080/10242694.2019.1625250},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2020-04-24},
	journal = {Defence and Peace Economics},
	author = {Peksen, Dursun},
	month = sep,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {635--647},
}

@article{earlyEconomicSanctionsFlux2020,
	title = {Economic {Sanctions} in {Flux}: {Enduring} {Challenges}, {New} {Policies}, and {Defining} the {Future} {Research} {Agenda}},
	volume = {21},
	issn = {1528-3577, 1528-3585},
	shorttitle = {Economic {Sanctions} in {Flux}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isp/advance-article/doi/10.1093/isp/ekaa002/5822053},
	doi = {10.1093/isp/ekaa002},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Policymakers employ economic sanctions to deal with a wide range of international challenges, making them an indispensable foreign policy tool. While scholarship on sanctions has tended to focus on the factors affecting their success, newer research programs have emerged that explore the reasons for why sanctions are threatened and initiated, the ways they are designed and enforced, and their consequences. This scholarship has yielded a wealth of new insights into how economic sanctions work, but most of those insights are based on sanctions observations from the 20th Century. The ways that policymakers employ sanctions have fundamentally changed over the past two decades, though, raising concerns about whether historically derived insights are still relevant to contemporary sanctions policies. In this forum, the contributors discuss the scholarly and policy-relevant insights of existing research on sanctions and then explore what gaps remain in our knowledge and new trends in sanctions policymaking. This forum will inform readers on the state of the art in sanctions research and propose avenues for future research.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2020-04-24},
	journal = {International Studies Perspectives},
	author = {Early, Bryan R. and Cilizoglu, Menevis},
	month = apr,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {438--477},
}

@article{natureeditorsPraiseReplicationStudies2020,
	title = {In praise of replication studies and null results},
	volume = {578},
	issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00530-6},
	doi = {10.1038/d41586-020-00530-6},
	language = {en},
	number = {7796},
	urldate = {2020-05-12},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {{Nature Editors}},
	month = feb,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {489--490},
}

@article{whangPlayingHomeCrowd2011,
	title = {Playing to the {Home} {Crowd}? {Symbolic} {Use} of {Economic} {Sanctions} in the {United} {States}},
	volume = {55},
	issn = {00208833},
	shorttitle = {Playing to the {Home} {Crowd}?},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00668.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00668.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2020-05-14},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Whang, Taehee},
	month = sep,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {787--801},
}

@article{doxeyInternationalSanctionsFramework1972,
	title = {International {Sanctions}: {A} {Framework} for {Analysis} with {Special} {Reference} to the {UN} and {Southern} {Africa}},
	volume = {26},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {International {Sanctions}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S002081830000299X/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S002081830000299X},
	abstract = {This paper falls into two main parts. In Part I an attempt is made to develop a simple framework which can be used for analyzing the role of sanctions, with special reference to international sanctions.
              1
              In Part II this framework is used to investigate the status of the United Nations as a sanctioning body and, in particular, the relationship between the UN and Southern Africa where Rhodesia has been subjected to international economic sanctions since 1965 and South Africa has been under threat of similar measures since the early 1960s.
              2},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2020-05-27},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Doxey, Margaret},
	year = {1972},
	pages = {527--550},
}

@article{dreznerTargetedSanctionsWorld2015,
	title = {Targeted {Sanctions} in a {World} of {Global} {Finance}},
	volume = {41},
	issn = {0305-0629, 1547-7444},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03050629.2015.1041297},
	doi = {10.1080/03050629.2015.1041297},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2020-05-29},
	journal = {International Interactions},
	author = {Drezner, Daniel W.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {755--764},
}

@article{giumelliUnderstandingUnitedNations2015,
	title = {Understanding {United} {Nations} targeted sanctions: an empirical analysis},
	volume = {91},
	issn = {00205850},
	shorttitle = {Understanding {United} {Nations} targeted sanctions},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/ia/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/1468-2346.12448},
	doi = {10.1111/1468-2346.12448},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2020-05-30},
	journal = {International Affairs},
	author = {Giumelli, Francesco},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {1351--1368},
}

@article{nooruddinModelingSelectionBias2002,
	title = {Modeling {Selection} {Bias} in {Studies} of {Sanctions} {Efficacy}},
	volume = {28},
	issn = {0305-0629, 1547-7444},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03050620210394},
	doi = {10.1080/03050620210394},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2020-05-31},
	journal = {International Interactions},
	author = {Nooruddin, Irfan},
	month = jan,
	year = {2002},
	pages = {59--75},
}

@article{buenodemesquitaSymposiumReplicationInternational2003,
	title = {Symposium on {Replication} in {International} {Studies} {Research}},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {1528-3577},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isp/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/1528-3577.04105},
	doi = {10.1111/1528-3577.04105},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2020-07-03},
	journal = {International Studies Perspectives},
	author = {Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and Gleditsch, Nils Petter and James, Patrick and King, Gary and Metelits, Claire and Ray, James Lee and Russett, Bruce and Strand, Havard and Valeriano, Brandon},
	month = mar,
	year = {2003},
	pages = {72--107},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/HGQIGDHE/Bueno de Mesquita et al. - 2003 - Symposium on Replication in International Studies .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{gleditschReplicationInternationalRelations2016,
	title = {Replication in {International} {Relations}},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {1528-3577, 1528-3585},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isp/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/isp/ekv003},
	doi = {10.1093/isp/ekv003},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2020-07-03},
	journal = {International Studies Perspectives},
	author = {Gleditsch, Nils Petter and Janz, Nicole},
	month = feb,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {361--366},
}

@article{peksenCoerciveCorrosiveNegative2010,
	title = {Coercive or {Corrosive}: {The} {Negative} {Impact} of {Economic} {Sanctions} on {Democracy}},
	volume = {36},
	issn = {0305-0629, 1547-7444},
	shorttitle = {Coercive or {Corrosive}},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03050629.2010.502436},
	doi = {10.1080/03050629.2010.502436},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2020-11-09},
	journal = {International Interactions},
	author = {Peksen, Dursun and Drury, A. Cooper},
	month = aug,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {240--264},
}

@article{peksenBetterWorseEffect2009,
	title = {Better or {Worse}? {The} {Effect} of {Economic} {Sanctions} on {Human} {Rights}},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	shorttitle = {Better or {Worse}?},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343308098404},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343308098404},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2020-11-09},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Peksen, Dursun},
	month = jan,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {59--77},
}

@article{peksenPoliticalEffectivenessNegative2019,
	title = {Political {Effectiveness}, {Negative} {Externalities}, and the {Ethics} of {Economic} {Sanctions}},
	volume = {33},
	issn = {0892-6794, 1747-7093},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0892679419000327/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0892679419000327},
	abstract = {Abstract
            As part of the roundtable “Economic Sanctions and Their Consequences,” this essay discusses whether economic sanctions are morally acceptable policy tools. It notes that both conventional and targeted sanctions not only often fail to achieve their stated objectives but also bring about significant negative externalities in target countries. Economic dislocation and increases in political instability instigated by sanctions disproportionately affect the well-being of opposition groups and marginalized segments of society, while target elites and their support base remain insulated from the intended costs of foreign pressure. Sanctions might also incentivize target governments to use repressive means to consolidate their rule and weaken the opposition. Given these serious shortcomings, I argue that sanctions are ethically problematic tools of foreign policy. Nonetheless, this does not mean that sanctions should be rejected outright, as there might be cases where sanctions are the only viable option, and they might work effectively under certain circumstances. Rather, the essay suggests that policymakers should apply more caution in considering the use of sanctions given their low probability of success, and should be more concerned with the delicate balance between political gain and civilian pain before levying sanctions, whether comprehensive or targeted.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2020-11-09},
	journal = {Ethics \& International Affairs},
	author = {Peksen, Dursun},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {279--289},
}

@book{barnettEyewitnessGenocideUnited2002,
	address = {Ithaca, NY},
	edition = {1. printing Cornell paperback},
	title = {Eyewitness to a genocide: the {United} {Nations} and {Rwanda}},
	isbn = {978-0-8014-8867-2},
	shorttitle = {Eyewitness to a genocide},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Cornell Univ. Press},
	author = {Barnett, Michael N.},
	year = {2002},
	note = {OCLC: 837710677},
	annote = {Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke},
}

@article{besbrisLessTheoryMore2017,
	title = {Less {Theory}. {More} {Description}.},
	volume = {35},
	issn = {0735-2751, 1467-9558},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0735275117709776},
	doi = {10.1177/0735275117709776},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2020-12-10},
	journal = {Sociological Theory},
	author = {Besbris, Max and Khan, Shamus},
	month = jun,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {147--153},
}

@article{samiiCausalEmpiricismQuantitative2016,
	title = {Causal {Empiricism} in {Quantitative} {Research}},
	volume = {78},
	issn = {0022-3816, 1468-2508},
	shorttitle = {Causal {Empiricism}},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/686690},
	doi = {10.1086/686690},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2020-12-18},
	journal = {The Journal of Politics},
	author = {Samii, Cyrus},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {941--955},
}

@article{aronowDoesRegressionProduce2016,
	title = {Does {Regression} {Produce} {Representative} {Estimates} of {Causal} {Effects}?},
	volume = {60},
	issn = {0092-5853, 1540-5907},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12185},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12185},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2020-12-30},
	journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Aronow, Peter M. and Samii, Cyrus},
	month = jan,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {250--267},
}

@article{vonsoestNotAllDictators2015a,
	title = {Not all dictators are equal: {Coups}, fraudulent elections, and the selective targeting of democratic sanctions},
	volume = {52},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	shorttitle = {Not all dictators are equal},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343314551081},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343314551081},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-01-01},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {von Soest, Christian and Wahman, Michael},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {17--31},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/8MYB6CET/von Soest and Wahman - 2015 - Not all dictators are equal Coups, fraudulent ele.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{hoMatchItNonparametricPreprocessing2011,
	title = {{MatchIt}: {Nonparametric} {Preprocessing} for {Parametric} {Causal} {Inference}},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {1548-7660},
	shorttitle = {\textbf{{MatchIt}}},
	url = {http://www.jstatsoft.org/v42/i08/},
	doi = {10.18637/jss.v042.i08},
	language = {en},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2021-01-05},
	journal = {Journal of Statistical Software},
	author = {Ho, Daniel E. and Imai, Kosuke and King, Gary and Stuart, Elizabeth A.},
	year = {2011},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/I8QHSWT9/Ho et al. - 2011 - MatchIt  Nonparametric Preprocessing for P.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{stuartMatchingMethodsCausal2010,
	title = {Matching {Methods} for {Causal} {Inference}: {A} {Review} and a {Look} {Forward}},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {0883-4237},
	shorttitle = {Matching {Methods} for {Causal} {Inference}},
	url = {http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1280841730},
	doi = {10.1214/09-STS313},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-01-05},
	journal = {Statistical Science},
	author = {Stuart, Elizabeth A.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {1--21},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/RGECWQJ8/Stuart - 2010 - Matching Methods for Causal Inference A Review an.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{janzReplicateOthersYou2020,
	title = {Replicate {Others} as {You} {Would} {Like} to {Be} {Replicated} {Yourself}},
	issn = {1049-0965, 1537-5935},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1049096520000943/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S1049096520000943},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-01-05},
	journal = {PS: Political Science \& Politics},
	author = {Janz, Nicole and Freese, Jeremy},
	month = dec,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {1--4},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/GEY5VJAT/Janz and Freese - 2020 - Replicate Others as You Would Like to Be Replicate.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{hufbauerEconomicSanctionsReconsidered2009,
	address = {Washington, DC},
	title = {Economic sanctions reconsidered},
	isbn = {978-0-88132-407-5 978-0-88132-408-2 978-0-88132-412-9 978-0-88132-268-2},
	publisher = {Peterson Institute for International Economics},
	editor = {Hufbauer, Gary Clyde and Schott, Jeffrey J. and Elliott, Kimberly Ann and Oegg, Barbara},
	year = {2009},
	note = {OCLC: ocn175217782},
	keywords = {Case studies, Economic sanctions},
	annote = {Analyzing the utility of sanctions -- Political variables -- Economic variables -- Sanctions after the Cold War -- Conclusions and policy recommendations},
	annote = {Prev. ed. was entered under the authors name: Hufbauer, Gary Clyde},
}

@article{liouRevisitingCausalLinks2020a,
	title = {Revisiting the {Causal} {Links} between {Economic} {Sanctions} and {Human} {Rights} {Violations}},
	volume = {74},
	issn = {1065-9129, 1938-274X},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1065912920941596},
	doi = {10.1177/1065912920941596},
	abstract = {There is some consensus in the literature that economic sanctions might prompt more human rights abuses in target countries. Yet, the causal mechanisms underlining the sanctions–repression nexus remain little understood. Using causal mediation analysis, we examine the processes through which sanctions might deteriorate human rights conditions. We specifically propose two indirect mechanisms driving human rights violations: increased domestic dissent and reduced government capacity. Sanctions are likely to trigger domestic dissent, and this instability would further induce the government to employ repression. Reduced government capacity caused by sanctions will harm the government’s ability to screen and oversee its security agents, which would subsequently lead to increased human rights abuses. Results from a time-series, cross-national data analysis indicate that sanctions-induced dissent, particularly violent dissent, plays a significant mediating role in the sanctions–repression link. Likewise, we find strong evidence that diminished fiscal capacity triggered by sanctions is likely to result in more repression. There is also some modest evidence that corruption as a proxy for poor governance mediates the sanctions–repression relationship.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2021-01-12},
	journal = {Political Research Quarterly},
	author = {Liou, Ryan Yu-Lin and Murdie, Amanda and Peksen, Dursun},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {808--821},
}

@article{lektzianEconomicSanctionsMilitary2016,
	title = {Economic sanctions, military interventions, and civil conflict outcomes},
	volume = {53},
	url = {https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/joupea/v53y2016i4p554-568.html},
	abstract = {Sanctions are designed to reduce the amount of resources available to the targeted actor and have the potential to be an effective tool for bringing disputing sides in a civil conflict to the bargaining table by altering incentives for continued fighting. Thus, there is reason to believe that sanctions can shorten the duration of civil conflicts. However, once sides in a conflict have moved to the use of violence to settle their dispute, it is hard for sanctions, in isolation, to impose enough cost to convince warring factions that settling a conflict has greater value than what could be expected from continued fighting. In this article, we argue that sanctions, in isolation, are unlikely to affect the duration of civil conflicts. However, when sanctions are combined with military interventions they can contribute to conflict management strategies resulting in shorter civil conflicts. We test our expectations empirically using data on civil conflicts from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program Armed Conflict Database and data on economic sanctions from the Threat and Imposition of Economic Sanctions Database. Our results suggest that the best hope for sanctions to shorten the duration of civil conflicts is if they are used as part of a comprehensive international response that includes institutional sanctions and military interventions.},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Lektzian, David and Regan, Patrick M},
	year = {2016},
	keywords = {civil conflicts, interventions, sanctions},
	pages = {554--568},
}

@article{luhrmannRegimesWorldRoW2018,
	title = {Regimes of the {World} ({RoW}): {Opening} {New} {Avenues} for the {Comparative} {Study} of {Political} {Regimes}},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {2183-2463},
	shorttitle = {Regimes of the {World} ({RoW})},
	url = {https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/1214},
	doi = {10.17645/pag.v6i1.1214},
	abstract = {Classifying political regimes has never been more difficult. Most contemporary regimes hold {\textless}em{\textgreater}de-jure{\textless}/em{\textgreater} multiparty elections with universal suffrage. In some countries, elections ensure that political rulers are—at least somewhat—accountable to the electorate whereas in others they are a mere window dressing exercise for authoritarian politics. Hence, regime types need to be distinguished based on the{\textless}em{\textgreater} de-facto{\textless}/em{\textgreater} implementation of democratic institutions and processes. Using V-Dem data, we propose with Regimes of the World (RoW) such an operationalization of four important regime types—closed and electoral autocracies; electoral and liberal democracies—with vast coverage (almost all countries from 1900 to 2016). We also contribute a solution to a fundamental weakness of extant typologies: The unknown extent of misclassification due to uncertainty from measurement error. V-Dem’s measures of uncertainty (Bayesian highest posterior densities) allow us to be the first to provide a regime typology that distinguishes cases classified with a high degree of certainty from those with “upper” and “lower” bounds in each category. Finally, a comparison of disagreements with extant datasets (7\%–12\% of the country-years), demonstrates that the RoW classification is more conservative, classifying regimes with electoral manipulation and infringements of the political freedoms more frequently as electoral autocracies, suggesting that it better captures the opaqueness of contemporary autocracies.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-02-02},
	journal = {Politics and Governance},
	author = {Lührmann, Anna and Tannenberg, Marcus and Lindberg, Staffan I.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {60--77},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/DFXCPPPX/Lührmann et al. - 2018 - Regimes of the World (RoW) Opening New Avenues fo.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{coxDemocraticSanctionsConnecting2006,
	title = {Democratic {Sanctions}: {Connecting} the {Democratic} {Peace} and {Economic} {Sanctions}},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	shorttitle = {Democratic {Sanctions}},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343306068104},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343306068104},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2021-03-24},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Cox, Dan G. and Drury, A. Cooper},
	month = nov,
	year = {2006},
	pages = {709--722},
}

@article{lichtHazardsHasslesEffect2017,
	title = {Hazards or {Hassles}: {The} {Effect} of {Sanctions} on {Leader} {Survival}},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {2049-8470, 2049-8489},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2049847015000254/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/psrm.2015.25},
	abstract = {Recent empirical work scrutinizes the ability of economic sanctions to destabilize targeted leaders. Limitations in data and modeling choices, however, may have inflated estimates of sanctions’ efficacy. I propose a unified theoretical model, incorporating the possibility that leaders targeted with threats and imposed sanctions differ in baseline risks from those who are not. I combine this hazards approach with an empirical strategy to account for differences in
              ex ante
              risks and improved data on leader failure. This approach uncovers a considerably more modest effect. Sanctions rarely destabilize their targets.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-03-29},
	journal = {Political Science Research and Methods},
	author = {Licht, Amanda A.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {143--161},
}

@article{pospiesznaAmplifyingNullifyingImpact2020,
	title = {Amplifying and nullifying the impact of democratic sanctions through aid to civil society},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {0305-0629, 1547-7444},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03050629.2020.1791108},
	doi = {10.1080/03050629.2020.1791108},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2021-03-30},
	journal = {International Interactions},
	author = {Pospieszna, Paulina and Weber, Patrick M.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {724--748},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/AAFGI74J/Pospieszna and Weber - 2020 - Amplifying and nullifying the impact of democratic.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{felbermayrGlobalSanctionsData2020a,
	title = {The {Global} {Sanctions} {Data} {Base} ({GSDB})},
	volume = {129},
	issn = {00142921},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0014292120301914},
	doi = {10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103561},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-03-30},
	journal = {European Economic Review},
	author = {Felbermayr, Gabriel and Kirilakha, Aleksandra and Syropoulos, Constantinos and Yalcin, Erdal and Yotov, Yoto V.},
	year = {2020},
}

@book{brockmeierAkteneinsichtenDeutscheAussenpolitik2021,
	address = {Berlin},
	title = {Akteneinsichten: {Die} deutsche {Außenpolitik} und der {Völkermord} in {Ruanda}},
	shorttitle = {Akteneinsichten},
	url = {https://www.boell.de/de/2021/03/29/akteneinsichten-die-deutsche-aussenpolitik-und-der-voelkermord-in-ruanda},
	abstract = {Mit etwa 800.000 Toten in einhundert Tagen war der Völkermord in Ruanda eine weltpolitische Zäsur, die grundsätzliche Fragen zur internationalen Verantwortung bei Genozid aufwarf und die Handlungsfähigkeit sowohl der Vereinten Nationen (VN) als auch einzelner Mitgliedsstaaten bei Völkermord und Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit grundlegend in Zweifel zog. Viele Fragen zur deutschen Außenpolitik vor und während des Völkermords sind bis heute offen. Das vorliegende Papier zeigt, dass deutsche Diplomat/innen 1993 und 1994 besser über die Lage vor Ort unterrichtet waren als bisher bekannt. Allerdings unterschätzten sie vor dem Völkermord die ethnische Dimension des Konflikts sowie den Organisationsgrad der Gewalt gegen Tutsi und übersahen wichtige Warnzeichen wie die Aktivitäten ruandischer Hetzmedien.Zwar debattierte die Bundesregierung, ihre Entwicklungszusammenarbeit mit Ruanda anzupassen und eine Bundeswehrberatergruppe, die seit 1978 im Land war, im Laufe des Jahres 1993 abzuziehen – doch fehlte es an ganz grundsätzlicher Koordinierung zwischen den relevanten Ministerien sowie einer Anpassung der deutschen außenpolitischen Strategie in Ruanda. Eine frühzeitige Reaktion auf die sich verschlechternde Lage durch die deutsche Außenpolitik blieb dementsprechend aus: Trotz der Selbsteinschätzung Deutschlands, in Ruanda und der Region als ein besonders glaubwürdiger Akteur auf allen Seiten zu gelten, unternahm die damalige Bundesregierung nicht einmal den Versuch, bei den Friedensverhandlungen eine stärkere Rolle zu spielen oder eigene politische Initiativen anzustoßen. Bereits im Sommer und Herbst 1993, im Jahr vor dem Völkermord, baten die Vereinten Nationen, die ruandischen Bürgerkriegsparteien und internationale Partner die Bundesregierung wiederholt um Soldaten und Ausstattung für die VN-Friedensmission in Ruanda. Obwohl das Auswärtige Amt einen solchen Beitrag befürwortete, lehnte die Bundesregierung eine Beteiligung auf Grund von Bedenken im Verteidigungsministerium ab. Auch eine Entsendung von Sanitätssoldaten zur VN-Mission in Ruanda während des Völkermords scheiterte an der Ablehnung des Verteidigungsministeriums.Ein Vierteljahrhundert nach dem Völkermord hat das Politische Archiv des Auswärtigen Amtes erstmals den Zugang zu einer Auswahl an relevanten Akten ermöglicht, die vorwiegend das Jahr 1993 und die Monate ab April 1994 abdecken. Auf Grundlage einer Analyse dieser Dokumente sowie ergänzenden Interviews fasst das vorliegende Papier neue Erkenntnisse zur deutschen Außenpolitik vor und während des Völkermords in drei Themenbereichen zusammen, die es auch heute in der deutschen Außenpolitik noch deutlich stärker zu diskutieren gilt: (1) Früherkennung und politische Analyse für die Krisenprävention («Early Warning»), (2) Koordinierung zwischen einschlägigen Ressorts und Strategiefähigkeit der Bundesregierung in der Krisenprävention und Friedensförderung, (3) die Bedingungen für eine rechtzeitige Reaktion auf Warnzeichen («Early Action»).Brockmeier, Sarah \&amp; Peez, Anton (2021): Akteneinsichten: Die deutsche Außenpolitik und der Völkermord in Ruanda. Berlin: Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. Online unter: https://www.boell.de/sites/default/files/2021-03/Deutsche\_Außenpolitik\_und\_der\_Voelkermord\_in\_Ruanda.pdf.},
	urldate = {2021-04-14},
	publisher = {Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung},
	author = {Brockmeier, Sarah and Peez, Anton},
	month = mar,
	year = {2021},
}

@article{vanbergeijkCanSanctionDebate2019,
	title = {Can the sanction debate be resolved?},
	volume = {20},
	url = {http://hdl.handle.net/1765/124048},
	number = {4},
	journal = {CESifo Forum},
	author = {van Bergeijk, Peter},
	month = jan,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {3--8},
}

@article{neuenkirchImpactUSSanctions2016,
	title = {The impact of {US} sanctions on poverty},
	volume = {121},
	issn = {03043878},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304387816300177},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.03.005},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-05-13},
	journal = {Journal of Development Economics},
	author = {Neuenkirch, Matthias and Neumeier, Florian},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {110--119},
}

@article{mcleanEconomicSanctionsDynamics2018,
	title = {Economic sanctions and the dynamics of terrorist campaigns},
	volume = {35},
	issn = {0738-8942, 1549-9219},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0738894216635023},
	doi = {10.1177/0738894216635023},
	abstract = {Although states rarely use economic sanctions specifically to combat transnational terrorism, potential targets of sanctions often face terrorist campaigns within their territory. States may avoid using sanctions against states with terrorists for fear of weakening target states excessively, thereby indirectly strengthening terrorist groups. However, this argument has not been subjected to rigorous empirical testing. This study presents a theoretical and empirical examination that explores how the imposition of sanctions affects the dynamics of ongoing terrorist campaigns in the targeted state. We argue that comprehensive sanctions that are imposed on targets that are fighting transnational terrorists within their territory should make these groups more resistant to collapse. However, similar sanctions imposed against states that serve as “home bases” or sanctuaries to terrorists should shorten the lifespan of these groups. Our empirical analysis yields results largely supportive of these theoretical expectations.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2021-06-06},
	journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
	author = {McLean, Elena V. and Hinkkainen, Kaisa and De la Calle, Luis and Bapat, Navin},
	month = jul,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {378--401},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/5DN3MBKT/McLean et al. - 2018 - Economic sanctions and the dynamics of terrorist c.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{weberPostColdWarSanctioning2022a,
	title = {Post-{Cold} {War} sanctioning by the {EU}, the {UN}, and the {US}: {Introducing} the {EUSANCT} {Dataset}},
	volume = {39},
	issn = {0738-8942, 1549-9219},
	shorttitle = {Post-{Cold} {War} sanctioning by the {EU}, the {UN}, and the {US}},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0738894220948729},
	doi = {10.1177/0738894220948729},
	abstract = {The European Union, the United Nations, and the United States frequently use economic sanctions. This article introduces the EUSANCT Dataset—which amends, merges, and updates some of the most widely used sanctions databases—to trace the evolution of sanctions after the Cold War. The dataset contains case-level and dyadic information on 326 threatened and imposed sanctions by the EU, the UN, and the US. We show that the usage and overall success of sanctions have not grown from 1989 to 2015 and that while the US is the most active sanctioner, the EU and the UN appear more successful.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-06-14},
	journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
	author = {Weber, Patrick M and Schneider, Gerald},
	year = {2022},
	pages = {97--114},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/2UQQ5HRX/Weber and Schneider - 2020 - Post-Cold War sanctioning by the EU, the UN, and t.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{cunninghamCausalInferenceMixtape2021,
	address = {New Haven},
	title = {Causal {Inference}: {The} {Mixtape}},
	isbn = {978-0-300-25168-5},
	shorttitle = {Causal inference},
	publisher = {Yale University Press},
	author = {Cunningham, Scott},
	year = {2021},
}

@article{lakeChallengesLiberalOrder2021,
	title = {Challenges to the {Liberal} {Order}: {Reflections} on {International} {Organization}},
	volume = {75},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {Challenges to the {Liberal} {Order}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818320000636/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818320000636},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              As
              International Organization
              commemorates its seventy-fifth anniversary, the Liberal International Order (LIO) that authors in this journal have long analyzed is under challenge, perhaps as never before. The articles in this issue explore the nature of these challenges by examining how the Westphalian order and the LIO have co-constituted one another over time; how both political and economic dynamics internal to the LIO threaten its core aspects; and how external threats combine with these internal dynamics to render the LIO more fragile than ever before. This introduction begins by defining and clarifying what is “liberal,” “international,” and “orderly” about the LIO. It then discusses some central challenges to the LIO, illustrated by the contributors to this issue as well as other sources. Finally, we reflect on the analytical lessons we have learned—or should learn—as the study of the LIO, represented by scholarship in
              International Organization
              , has sometimes overlooked or marginalized dynamics that now appear central to the functioning, and dysfunction, of the order itself.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2021-09-14},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Lake, David A. and Martin, Lisa L. and Risse, Thomas},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {225--257},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/FVNH8G9X/Lake et al. - 2021 - Challenges to the Liberal Order Reflections on i.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{grossmannHowSocialScience2021,
	address = {New York, NY},
	title = {How social science got better: overcoming bias with more evidence, diversity, and self-reflection},
	isbn = {978-0-19-751897-7},
	shorttitle = {How social science got better},
	abstract = {"Social science research is facing mounting criticism, as canonical studies fail to replicate, questionable research practices abound, and researcher social and political biases come under fire. Far from crisis, however, social science is undergoing an unparalleled renaissance of ever-broader and deeper understanding and application-made possible by close attention to criticism of our biases and open public engagement. Wars between scientists and their humanist critics, methodological disputes over statistical practice and qualitative research, and disciplinary battles over grand theories of human nature have all quietly died down as new generations of scholars have integrated the insights of multiple sides. Rather than deny that researcher biases affect results, scholars now closely analyze how our racial, gender, geographic, methodological, political, and ideological differences impact our research questions, how the incentives of academia influence our research practices, and how universal human desires to avoid uncomfortable truths and easily solve problems affect our conclusions. To be sure, misaligned incentive structures remain, but a messy, collective deliberation across the research community is boosting self-knowledge and improving practice. Ours is an unprecedented age of theoretical diversity, open and connected data, and public scholarship. How Social Science Got Better documents and explains recent transformations, crediting both internal and public critics for strengthening social science. Applying insights from the philosophy, history, and sociology of science and providing new data on trends in social science research and scholarly views, it demonstrates that social science has never been more relevant, rigorous, or self-reflective"--},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Grossmann, Matthew},
	year = {2021},
	keywords = {Methodology, Social sciences, Research},
	annote = {Social science biases and collective knowledge -- Reform and progress -- The quiet resolution of the science wars -- Me-search all the way down -- American academia: the main setting for social science -- Opportunities and constraints of the disciplines -- Multiple levels of analysis and time scales -- All history and policy -- Motivations and constraints of a practical orientation -- popularization and consilience},
}

@article{imaiMatchingMethodsCausal2023,
	title = {Matching {Methods} for {Causal} {Inference} with {Time}-{Series} {Cross}-{Sectional} {Data}},
	volume = {67},
	url = {http://web.mit.edu/insong/www/pdf/tscs.pdf},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12685},
	number = {3},
	journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Kim, In Song and Wang, Erik},
	year = {2023},
	pages = {587--605},
}

@article{silberzahnManyAnalystsOne2018,
	title = {Many {Analysts}, {One} {Data} {Set}: {Making} {Transparent} {How} {Variations} in {Analytic} {Choices} {Affect} {Results}},
	volume = {1},
	issn = {2515-2459, 2515-2467},
	shorttitle = {Many {Analysts}, {One} {Data} {Set}},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2515245917747646},
	doi = {10.1177/2515245917747646},
	abstract = {Twenty-nine teams involving 61 analysts used the same data set to address the same research question: whether soccer referees are more likely to give red cards to dark-skin-toned players than to light-skin-toned players. Analytic approaches varied widely across the teams, and the estimated effect sizes ranged from 0.89 to 2.93 ( Mdn = 1.31) in odds-ratio units. Twenty teams (69\%) found a statistically significant positive effect, and 9 teams (31\%) did not observe a significant relationship. Overall, the 29 different analyses used 21 unique combinations of covariates. Neither analysts’ prior beliefs about the effect of interest nor their level of expertise readily explained the variation in the outcomes of the analyses. Peer ratings of the quality of the analyses also did not account for the variability. These findings suggest that significant variation in the results of analyses of complex data may be difficult to avoid, even by experts with honest intentions. Crowdsourcing data analysis, a strategy in which numerous research teams are recruited to simultaneously investigate the same research question, makes transparent how defensible, yet subjective, analytic choices influence research results.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2021-10-17},
	journal = {Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science},
	author = {Silberzahn, Raphael and Uhlmann, Eric L. and Martin, D. P. and Anselmi, P. and Aust, F. and Awtrey, E. and Bahník, Š. and Bai, F. and Bannard, C. and Bonnier, E. and Carlsson, R. and Cheung, F. and Christensen, G. and Clay, R. and Craig, M. A. and Dalla Rosa, A. and Dam, L. and Evans, M. H. and Flores Cervantes, I. and Fong, N. and Gamez-Djokic, M. and Glenz, A. and Gordon-McKeon, S. and Heaton, T. J. and Hederos, K. and Heene, M. and Hofelich Mohr, A. J. and Högden, F. and Hui, K. and Johannesson, M. and Kalodimos, J. and Kaszubowski, E. and Kennedy, D. M. and Lei, R. and Lindsay, T. A. and Liverani, S. and Madan, C. R. and Molden, D. and Molleman, E. and Morey, R. D. and Mulder, L. B. and Nijstad, B. R. and Pope, N. G. and Pope, B. and Prenoveau, J. M. and Rink, F. and Robusto, E. and Roderique, H. and Sandberg, A. and Schlüter, E. and Schönbrodt, F. D. and Sherman, M. F. and Sommer, S. A. and Sotak, K. and Spain, S. and Spörlein, C. and Stafford, T. and Stefanutti, L. and Tauber, S. and Ullrich, J. and Vianello, M. and Wagenmakers, E.-J. and Witkowiak, M. and Yoon, S. and Nosek, B. A.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {337--356},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/HY37FFMQ/Silberzahn et al. - 2018 - Many Analysts, One Data Set Making Transparent Ho.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{gutmannPrecisionguidedBluntEffects2020,
	title = {Precision-guided or blunt? {The} effects of {US} economic sanctions on human rights},
	volume = {185},
	issn = {0048-5829, 1573-7101},
	shorttitle = {Precision-guided or blunt?},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11127-019-00746-9},
	doi = {10.1007/s11127-019-00746-9},
	language = {en},
	number = {1-2},
	urldate = {2021-10-24},
	journal = {Public Choice},
	author = {Gutmann, Jerg and Neuenkirch, Matthias and Neumeier, Florian},
	month = oct,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {161--182},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/FIEWUCZH/Gutmann et al. - 2020 - Precision-guided or blunt The effects of US econo.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{gutmannSanctionedDeathImpact2021,
	title = {Sanctioned to {Death}? {The} {Impact} of {Economic} {Sanctions} on {Life} {Expectancy} and its {Gender} {Gap}},
	volume = {57},
	issn = {0022-0388, 1743-9140},
	shorttitle = {Sanctioned to {Death}?},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00220388.2020.1746277},
	doi = {10.1080/00220388.2020.1746277},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-10-25},
	journal = {The Journal of Development Studies},
	author = {Gutmann, Jerg and Neuenkirch, Matthias and Neumeier, Florian},
	month = jan,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {139--162},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/K8ALFASU/Gutmann et al. - 2021 - Sanctioned to Death The Impact of Economic Sancti.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@techreport{greiferCobaltCovariateBalance2021,
	type = {manual},
	title = {cobalt: {Covariate} balance tables and plots},
	url = {https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=cobalt},
	author = {Greifer, Noah},
	year = {2021},
	annote = {R package version 4.3.1},
}

@article{acemogluDemocracyDoesCause2019,
	title = {Democracy {Does} {Cause} {Growth}},
	volume = {127},
	issn = {0022-3808, 1537-534X},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/700936},
	doi = {10.1086/700936},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-10-29},
	journal = {Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Acemoglu, Daron and Naidu, Suresh and Restrepo, Pascual and Robinson, James A.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {47--100},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/62TQXYTG/Acemoglu et al. - 2019 - Democracy Does Cause Growth.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{hainmuellerEntropyBalancingCausal2012,
	title = {Entropy {Balancing} for {Causal} {Effects}: {A} {Multivariate} {Reweighting} {Method} to {Produce} {Balanced} {Samples} in {Observational} {Studies}},
	volume = {20},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	shorttitle = {Entropy {Balancing} for {Causal} {Effects}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1047198700012997/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1093/pan/mpr025},
	abstract = {This paper proposes entropy balancing, a data preprocessing method to achieve covariate balance in observational studies with binary treatments. Entropy balancing relies on a maximum entropy reweighting scheme that calibrates unit weights so that the reweighted treatment and control group satisfy a potentially large set of prespecified balance conditions that incorporate information about known sample moments. Entropy balancing thereby exactly adjusts inequalities in representation with respect to the first, second, and possibly higher moments of the covariate distributions. These balance improvements can reduce model dependence for the subsequent estimation of treatment effects. The method assures that balance improves on all covariate moments included in the reweighting. It also obviates the need for continual balance checking and iterative searching over propensity score models that may stochastically balance the covariate moments. We demonstrate the use of entropy balancing with Monte Carlo simulations and empirical applications.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-11-05},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Hainmueller, Jens},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {25--46},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/3JEEPSRV/Hainmueller - 2012 - Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects A Multivaria.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{rubinUsingPropensityScores2001,
	title = {Using {Propensity} {Scores} to {Help} {Design} {Observational} {Studies}: {Application} to the {Tobacco} {Litigation}},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {13873741},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1023/A:1020363010465},
	doi = {10.1023/A:1020363010465},
	number = {3/4},
	urldate = {2021-11-05},
	journal = {Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology},
	author = {Rubin, Donald B.},
	year = {2001},
	pages = {169--188},
}

@article{lindenUsingBalanceStatistics2013,
	title = {Using balance statistics to determine the optimal number of controls in matching studies: {Optimal} number of controls in matching studies},
	volume = {19},
	issn = {13561294},
	shorttitle = {Using balance statistics to determine the optimal number of controls in matching studies},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jep.12072},
	doi = {10.1111/jep.12072},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2021-11-05},
	journal = {Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice},
	author = {Linden, Ariel and Samuels, Steven J.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {968--975},
}

@article{stuartPrognosticScoreBased2013,
	title = {Prognostic score–based balance measures can be a useful diagnostic for propensity score methods in comparative effectiveness research},
	volume = {66},
	issn = {08954356},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0895435613001625},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jclinepi.2013.01.013},
	language = {en},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2021-11-05},
	journal = {Journal of Clinical Epidemiology},
	author = {Stuart, Elizabeth A. and Lee, Brian K. and Leacy, Finbarr P.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {S84--S90.e1},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/4GFJJGXV/Stuart et al. - 2013 - Prognostic score–based balance measures can be a u.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{keeleStatisticsCausalInference2015,
	title = {The {Statistics} of {Causal} {Inference}: {A} {View} from {Political} {Methodology}},
	volume = {23},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	shorttitle = {The {Statistics} of {Causal} {Inference}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1047198700011785/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1093/pan/mpv007},
	abstract = {Many areas of political science focus on causal questions. Evidence from statistical analyses is often used to make the case for causal relationships. While statistical analyses can help establish causal relationships, it can also provide strong evidence of causality where none exists. In this essay, I provide an overview of the statistics of causal inference. Instead of focusing on specific statistical methods, such as matching, I focus more on the assumptions needed to give statistical estimates a causal interpretation. Such assumptions are often referred to as identification assumptions, and these assumptions are critical to any statistical analysis about causal effects. I outline a wide range of identification assumptions and highlight the design-based approach to causal inference. I conclude with an overview of statistical methods that are frequently used for causal inference.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2021-11-05},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Keele, Luke},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {313--335},
}

@article{atheyStateAppliedEconometrics2017,
	title = {The {State} of {Applied} {Econometrics}: {Causality} and {Policy} {Evaluation}},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {0895-3309},
	shorttitle = {The {State} of {Applied} {Econometrics}},
	url = {https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/jep.31.2.3},
	doi = {10.1257/jep.31.2.3},
	abstract = {In this paper, we discuss recent developments in econometrics that we view as important for empirical researchers working on policy evaluation questions. We focus on three main areas, in each case, highlighting recommendations for applied work. First, we discuss new research on identification strategies in program evaluation, with particular focus on synthetic control methods, regression discontinuity, external validity, and the causal interpretation of regression methods. Second, we discuss various forms of supplementary analyses, including placebo analyses as well as sensitivity and robustness analyses, intended to make the identification strategies more credible. Third, we discuss some implications of recent advances in machine learning methods for causal effects, including methods to adjust for differences between treated and control units in high-dimensional settings, and methods for identifying and estimating heterogenous treatment effects.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2021-11-08},
	journal = {Journal of Economic Perspectives},
	author = {Athey, Susan and Imbens, Guido W.},
	month = may,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {3--32},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/NU8TQ5NA/Athey and Imbens - 2017 - The State of Applied Econometrics Causality and P.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@incollection{daaseJustificationCritiqueCoercion2021,
	title = {The {Justification} and {Critique} of {Coercion} as {World} {Order} {Politics}},
	isbn = {978-0-19-886530-8 978-0-19-189824-2},
	url = {https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780198865308.001.0001/oso-9780198865308-chapter-27},
	abstract = {The present chapter turns from the justification of war (the use of force) to the justification of coercion. It proceeds on the assumption that to stabilize the current international order requires less ‘legitimate force’ and more ‘legitimate coercion’ since in most institutions the enforcement of norms—as the very basis of order—does not only or even primarily rely on physical force but on various forms of political and economic coercion. The chapter distinguishes various forms of coercion and reconstructs debates in International Law and International Relations with regard to their legality, legitimacy, and effectiveness. Doing so, Christopher Daase and Nicole Deitelhoff intend to broaden the debate on world order by redirecting the focus from the use of force to the use of less violent coercive measures. Specifically, the chapter introduces a concept of sanction as a means of communicating normative expectations to the normative community rather than executing punishments.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-11-17},
	booktitle = {The {Justification} of {War} and {International} {Order}},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Daase, Christopher and Deitelhoff, Nicole},
	editor = {Brock, Lothar and Simon, Hendrik},
	month = jan,
	year = {2021},
	doi = {10.1093/oso/9780198865308.003.0027},
	pages = {489--500},
}

@article{radtkeFightingHydraUnited2018,
	title = {Fighting the {Hydra}: {United} {Nations} sanctions and rebel groups},
	volume = {55},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	shorttitle = {Fighting the {Hydra}},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343318788127},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343318788127},
	abstract = {In the past 25 years, the United Nations has sanctioned 28 rebel groups in 13 civil wars. Have the UN sanctions been effective in meeting the goal of conflict reduction? In this article, we argue that UN sanctions are effective to the extent that they can constrain and weaken some rebel groups. But this constraining effect can only occur when UN sanctions curtail rebel groups’ ability to adapt. For less adaptable groups, UN sanctions can trigger a causal chain of depressed rebel income, territorial losses, and battlefield defeats that leads to conflict reduction. This adaptability is the key to the understanding of UN sanctions’ effectiveness in conflict reduction, as rebel groups often engage in illegal and criminal economic activities and many of them are ‘Hydra-like’, being able to shift their income sources in response to sanction measures. As evidence of how UN sanctions can trigger these conflict dynamics, we first perform negative binomial regression on all civil war cases. We then proceed to provide more detailed evidence for our causal chain by conducting time-series intervention analysis on two sanctioned rebel groups: UNITA in Angola and al-Shabaab in Somalia. Our work is the first systematic quantitative analysis of UN sanctions’ effects on rebel groups, and the results have implications for the viability of economic coercion as a means to intervene into civil conflicts.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2021-11-25},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Radtke, Mitchell and Jo, Hyeran},
	month = nov,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {759--773},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/8L9QUBU4/Radtke and Jo - 2018 - Fighting the Hydra United Nations sanctions and r.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@techreport{moret2016new,
	title = {The {New} {Deterrent}? {International} {Sanctions} {Against} {Russia} over the {Ukraine} {Crisis}: {Impacts}, {Costs} and {Further} {Action}},
	url = {https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/294704?_ga=2.197378159.1589010958.1693461119-1176543094.1693461119},
	institution = {Programme for the Study of International Governance (PSIG) at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies},
	author = {Moret, Erica and Biersteker, Thomas J and Giumelli, Francesco and Portela, Clara and Veber, Marusa and Bastiat-Jarosz, Dawid and Bobocea, Cristian},
	year = {2016},
}

@techreport{hudakova2021sanctions,
	title = {Sanctions relaxation and conflict resolution},
	url = {https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/299408/files/sanctions-relaxation-10-2021.pdf},
	institution = {The Carter Center},
	author = {Hudáková, Zuzana and Biersteker, Thomas J and Moret, Erica},
	year = {2021},
}

@article{escriba-folchDealingTyrannyInternational2010,
	title = {Dealing with {Tyranny}: {International} {Sanctions} and the {Survival} of {Authoritarian} {Rulers}},
	volume = {54},
	issn = {00208833, 14682478},
	shorttitle = {Dealing with {Tyranny}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00590.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1468-2478.2010.00590.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2021-12-07},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Escribà-Folch, Abel and Wright, Joseph},
	month = jun,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {335--359},
}

@article{coppedgeVDemMethodologyV112021,
	title = {V-{Dem} {Methodology} (v11.1 – {March} 2021)},
	issn = {1556-5068},
	url = {https://www.v-dem.net/static/website/img/refs/methodologyv111.pdf},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3802748},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-12-21},
	journal = {V-Dem Working Paper},
	author = {Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Knutsen, Carl Henrik and Lindberg, Staffan I. and Teorell, Jan and Marquardt, Kyle M. and Medzihorsky, Juraj and Pemstein, Daniel and Alizada, Nazifa and Gastaldi, Lisa and Hindle, Garry and Pernes, Josefine and von Römer, Johannes and Tzelgov, Eitan and Wilson, Steven},
	year = {2021},
}

@article{portelaDesignImpactsIndividual2022,
	title = {The {Design} and {Impacts} of {Individual} {Sanctions}: {Evidence} {From} {Elites} in {Côte} d’{Ivoire} and {Zimbabwe}},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {2183-2463},
	shorttitle = {The {Design} and {Impacts} of {Individual} {Sanctions}},
	url = {https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/4745},
	doi = {10.17645/pag.v10i1.4745},
	abstract = {Since the 1990s, sanctions senders like the European Union, the United States, and the United Nations have been imposing visa bans and asset freezes on individuals as a key element of their sanctions packages. Notwithstanding the growing centrality that individual sanctions have acquired in international sanctions practice, little is known about the impact of sanctions listings on designees. Some researchers have scrutinised targeting choices, while others have explored the effects of sanctions on designees. However, no study has yet examined the fit between targeting choices and impacts on designees. First, we interrogate the theory of targeted sanctions to identify the expectations that it generates. Second, we examine the effects on designees and contrast them with the targeting logic of the sender, in a bid to ascertain their fit. Our analysis of the cases of Côte d’Ivoire (2010–2011) and Zimbabwe (2002–2017) benefits from original interview material.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-01-10},
	journal = {Politics and Governance},
	author = {Portela, Clara and Van Laer, Thijs},
	month = jan,
	year = {2022},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/W35HQ2NM/Portela and Van Laer - 2022 - The Design and Impacts of Individual Sanctions Ev.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{woodPoliticalTerrorScale2010,
	title = {The {Political} {Terror} {Scale} ({PTS}): {A} {Re}-introduction and a {Comparison} to {CIRI}},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {1085-794X},
	shorttitle = {The {Political} {Terror} {Scale} ({PTS})},
	url = {http://muse.jhu.edu/content/crossref/journals/human_rights_quarterly/v032/32.2.wood.html},
	doi = {10.1353/hrq.0.0152},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-01-17},
	journal = {Human Rights Quarterly},
	author = {Wood, Reed M. and Gibney, Mark},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {367--400},
}

@article{peezContributionsBlindSpots2022a,
	title = {Contributions and {Blind} {Spots} of {Constructivist} {Norms} {Research} in {International} {Relations}, 1980–2018: {A} {Systematic} {Evidence} and {Gap} {Analysis}},
	volume = {24},
	issn = {1521-9488, 1468-2486},
	shorttitle = {Contributions and {Blind} {Spots} of {Constructivist} {Norms} {Research} in {International} {Relations}, 1980–2018},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/doi/10.1093/isr/viab055/6506126},
	doi = {10.1093/isr/viab055},
	abstract = {Abstract
            The study of international norms from a social constructivist perspective has been one of the major conceptual innovations to the discipline of international relations (IR) over the past forty years. However, despite the concept's ubiquity, there is only a limited understanding of the large-scale trends in research associated with its rise. This analytic essay interrogates conventional wisdom, using a dataset of 7,795 mainstream, English-language journal articles from the Teaching, Research and International Policy Journal Article Database, supplemented with data from Web of Science. How have international norms been studied substantively and methodologically, what are major contributions and blind spots, and which opportunities for future innovation might exist? Although norms research has historically helped expand the scope of issues covered in IR (e.g., gender issues and public health), others have evidence gaps relative to the broader discipline of IR (e.g., terrorism and public opinion). Over the years, the proportion of empirical studies has increased, while purely theoretical, epistemological, and methodological work and innovation have decreased. Despite calls for methodological pluralism, norms research is significantly more qualitative and conceptual than mainstream IR in general and far less multi-method. While more international and less US-based than IR in general, norms research in mainstream journals seems to be no closer to a “Global IR,” measured by regional focus and author affiliation. This suggests three promising avenues for future innovation: greater attention to specific substantive blind spots, more multi-method research, and increased attention to the agenda of Global IR. Beyond these individual insights, this review illustrates the general utility of complementing narrative literature reviews with ones based on quantitative data. It also provides a case study on conceptual proliferation and innovation in IR.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-01-18},
	journal = {International Studies Review},
	author = {Peez, Anton},
	year = {2022},
	pages = {viab055},
}

@article{peezContestationNormChange2021,
	title = {Contestation and norm change in whale and elephant conservation: {Non}-use or sustainable use?},
	issn = {0010-8367, 1460-3691},
	shorttitle = {Contestation and norm change in whale and elephant conservation},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00108367211047138},
	doi = {10.1177/00108367211047138},
	abstract = {Elephants and whales took center stage in the environmental movements of the 1980s. As flagship species, they were the poster children of global initiatives: international ivory trading and commercial whaling were banned in the 1980s in the context of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and the International Whaling Commission (IWC), respectively. While the conservation of both species is contested, we observe a change of existing norms in one case but not in the other: A moratorium on commercial whaling remains in place. Meanwhile, a limited shift to sustainable use regarding ivory was passed in 1997/2000. We ask why norm change occurred in one case but not the other, given their similarities. We argue that the difference can be explained by the perceived legitimacy of the claims of norm challengers using arguments of “affectedness” and the breadth of issues covered by CITES. In contrast, other factors commonly discussed in norms research do not explain this puzzle: the relative power and strategies of norm advocates and challengers, and the degree of legalization. This shows the interplay of discursive aspects and concrete institutional opportunities for norm change, even in the face of otherwise inopportune conditions.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-01-18},
	journal = {Cooperation and Conflict},
	author = {Peez, Anton and Zimmermann, Lisbeth},
	month = oct,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {001083672110471},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/XH4PFC8U/Peez and Zimmermann - 2021 - Contestation and norm change in whale and elephant.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{wallensteenInternationalSanctionsWords2005,
	address = {London},
	title = {International sanctions: between words and wars in the global system},
	isbn = {978-0-415-35596-4 978-0-415-35597-1},
	shorttitle = {International sanctions},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	editor = {Wallensteen, Peter and Staibano, Carina},
	year = {2005},
	note = {OCLC: ocm56214068
tex.ids= wallensteenInternationalSanctionsWords2005},
	keywords = {Sanctions (International law)},
}

@article{brzoskaInternationalSanctionsSanctions2015,
	title = {International sanctions before and beyond {UN} sanctions},
	volume = {91},
	issn = {00205850},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/ia/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/1468-2346.12449},
	doi = {10.1111/1468-2346.12449},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2022-01-21},
	journal = {International Affairs},
	author = {Brzoska, Michael},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {1339--1349},
}

@article{clayThreatExampleEconomic2018,
	title = {Threat by {Example}: {Economic} {Sanctions} and {Global} {Respect} for {Human} {Rights}},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {2057-3170, 2057-3189},
	shorttitle = {Threat by {Example}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/jogss/article/3/2/133/4964800},
	doi = {10.1093/jogss/ogy006},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-01-25},
	journal = {Journal of Global Security Studies},
	author = {Clay, K Chad},
	month = apr,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {133--149},
}

@article{woodHandThroatNation2008,
	title = {“{A} {Hand} upon the {Throat} of the {Nation}”: {Economic} {Sanctions} and {State} {Repression}, 1976-2001},
	volume = {52},
	issn = {00208833, 14682478},
	shorttitle = {“{A} {Hand} upon the {Throat} of the {Nation}”},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00512.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1468-2478.2008.00512.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-01-28},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Wood, Reed M.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {489--513},
}

@article{chinVarietiesCoupsDetat2021,
	title = {The {Varieties} of {Coups} {D}’état: {Introducing} the {Colpus} {Dataset}},
	volume = {65},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	shorttitle = {The {Varieties} of {Coups} {D}’état},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/65/4/1040/6312785},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqab058},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Interest in authoritarian politics and democratic breakdown has fueled a revival in scholarship on coups d'état. However, this research is held back by the fact that no global coup dataset captures theoretically salient information on the identity of coup-makers, their goals, and the relationship between the coup leaders and the ruling regime. We introduce the Colpus dataset, new global data on coup types and characteristics in the post–World War II era. These data introduce a typology of coups, measurement strategy, and coding procedures to differentiate between whether coups seek to preserve existing ruling coalitions (leader reshuffling coups) or significantly alter ruling coalitions (regime change coups). We show trends in coup types across time and space. Finally, we demonstrate that poverty—an established determinant of coups—only predicts regime change coups. Colpus data will be of use to scholars of political instability and conflict, regime change, leadership accountability, the political economy of democracy and dictatorship, and related topics.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-01-29},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Chin, John J. and Carter, David B and Wright, Joseph G},
	month = dec,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {1040--1051},
}

@article{wallaceRegimeTypeIssues2013,
	title = {Regime type, issues of contention, and economic sanctions: {Re}-evaluating the economic peace between democracies},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	shorttitle = {Regime type, issues of contention, and economic sanctions},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343313482339},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343313482339},
	abstract = {Past studies have applied insights from the democratic peace to show that democracies are also less likely to sanction one another compared to other regime types. More recent work challenges this finding by arguing that the economic peace between democracies largely disappears once methodological improvements are included along with the particular behavior of the United States as market hegemon. This article cautions that these critiques may themselves be an artifact of particularities in past data on economic sanctions. Using a larger and more representative sanctions dataset, the analysis shows that democracies do seem less likely on average to sanction each other. Furthermore, the United States does not appear to be unique in its sanctioning behavior compared to other democracies. However, the article proposes a middle ground between proponents and skeptics of an economic peace between democracies. The analysis shows that the pacifying effects of joint democracy only operate for security related sanctions, while in non-security related matters democratic constraints are less evident. The results point to the importance of considering more closely the choice of data on sanctions, but also the need to take into account the issues under contention for episodes of economic coercion.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-02-01},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Wallace, Geoffrey P R},
	month = jul,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {479--493},
}

@article{imaiCovariateBalancingPropensity2014,
	title = {Covariate balancing propensity score},
	volume = {76},
	issn = {13697412},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rssb.12027},
	doi = {10.1111/rssb.12027},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-02-07},
	journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Ratkovic, Marc},
	month = jan,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {243--263},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/CRIH42US/Imai and Ratkovic - 2014 - Covariate balancing propensity score.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{plumperCaseSelectionCausal2019,
	title = {Case selection and causal inferences in qualitative comparative research},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0219727},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0219727},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2022-02-15},
	journal = {PLOS One},
	author = {Plümper, Thomas and Troeger, Vera E. and Neumayer, Eric},
	month = jul,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {e0219727},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/7Q8URKDH/Plümper et al. - 2019 - Case selection and causal inferences in qualitativ.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{munozUnexpectedEventSurvey2020,
	title = {Unexpected {Event} during {Survey} {Design}: {Promise} and {Pitfalls} for {Causal} {Inference}},
	volume = {28},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	shorttitle = {Unexpected {Event} during {Survey} {Design}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1047198719000275/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/pan.2019.27},
	abstract = {An increasing number of studies exploit the occurrence of unexpected events during the fieldwork of public opinion surveys to estimate causal effects. In this paper, we discuss the use of this identification strategy based on unforeseen and salient events that split the sample of respondents into treatment and control groups: the Unexpected Event during Survey Design. In particular, we focus on the assumptions under which unexpected  events can be exploited to estimate causal effects and we discuss potential threats to identification, paying especial attention to the observable and testable implications of these assumptions. We propose a series of best practices in the form of various estimation strategies and robustness checks that can be used to lend credibility to the causal estimates. Drawing on data from the European Social Survey, we illustrate the discussion of this method with an original study of the impact of the Charlie Hebdo terrorist attacks (Paris, 01/07/2015) on French citizens’ satisfaction with their national government.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-03-01},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Muñoz, Jordi and Falcó-Gimeno, Albert and Hernández, Enrique},
	month = apr,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {186--206},
	file = {Accepted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/7IC2R2FG/Muñoz et al. - 2020 - Unexpected Event during Survey Design Promise and.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@misc{pelterSanctionsTheirImpact2022,
	title = {Sanctions and their {Impact} on {Children}. {UNICEF} {Discussion} {Paper}.},
	url = {https://www.unicef.org/globalinsight/media/2531/file/%20UNICEF-Global-Insight-Sanctions-and-Children-2022.pdf},
	author = {Pelter, Zoë and Teixeira, Camila and Moret, Erica},
	month = feb,
	year = {2022},
}

@incollection{demena2021publication,
	title = {Publication bias of economic sanctions research: a meta-analysis of the impact of trade linkage, duration and prior relations on sanctions success},
	booktitle = {Research handbook on economic sanctions},
	publisher = {Edward Elgar Publishing},
	author = {Demena, Binyam A and Reta, Alemayehu S and Jativa, Gabriela Benalcazar and Kimararungu, Patrick B and van Bergeijk, Peter AG},
	editor = {van Bergeijk, Peter AG},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {125--150},
}

@article{mcleanPublicSupportEconomic2017a,
	title = {Public {Support} for {Economic} {Sanctions}: {An} {Experimental} {Analysis}},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {1743-8586, 1743-8594},
	shorttitle = {Public {Support} for {Economic} {Sanctions}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/fpa/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/fpa/orw014},
	doi = {10.1093/fpa/orw014},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-03-25},
	journal = {Foreign Policy Analysis},
	author = {McLean, Elena V. and Roblyer, Dwight},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {233--254},
}

@article{gelman2013garden,
	title = {The garden of forking paths: {Why} multiple comparisons can be a problem, even when there is no “fishing expedition” or “p-hacking” and the research hypothesis was posited ahead of time},
	volume = {348},
	journal = {Department of Statistics, Columbia University},
	author = {Gelman, Andrew and Loken, Eric},
	year = {2013},
}

@article{allenEconomicSanctionsBlunt2013,
	title = {Economic sanctions: {A} blunt instrument?},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	shorttitle = {Economic sanctions},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343312456224},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343312456224},
	abstract = {Economic sanctions have been referred to as a blunt instrument that the international community has often wielded without full consideration of the impact that these measures will have on the population of the targeted countries, particularly the weakest elements of society. Case studies of sanctions against Cuba, Iraq, and Yugoslavia have demonstrated the impact that sanctions can have on the availability of food, clean water, and medicine, causing many to conclude that all sanctions have extensive public health consequences. In this article, we examine the generalizability of these conclusions in a quantitative cross-national study of sanctions and their public health effects. Additionally, we compare these effects to those associated with both civil and interstate conflicts as critics have recently suggested that sanctions are not a humane alternative to armed warfare. We find that when sanctions have a large economic effect on the target they can have severe public health consequences. These consequences are substantively similar to those associated with major military conflicts. However, when sanctions have little or no economic effect on the target, they also have no substantive effect on public health. Building on recent work to explore the human consequences of war, this work also helps to demonstrate the importance of smart sanctions and humanitarian exemptions in sanctions policy.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-04-02},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Allen, Susan Hannah and Lektzian, David J},
	month = jan,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {121--135},
}

@article{baumRelationshipsMassMedia2008,
	title = {The {Relationships} {Between} {Mass} {Media}, {Public} {Opinion}, and {Foreign} {Policy}: {Toward} a {Theoretical} {Synthesis}},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1094-2939, 1545-1577},
	shorttitle = {The {Relationships} {Between} {Mass} {Media}, {Public} {Opinion}, and {Foreign} {Policy}},
	url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060406.214132},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060406.214132},
	abstract = {Democracy requires that citizens' opinions play some role in shaping policy outcomes, including in foreign policy. Yet, although the literature on public opinion and foreign policy has made great progress in recent decades, scholars have reached no consensus concerning what the public thinks, or thinks about, with respect to foreign policy; how it comes to hold those opinions; or whether those opinions influence (or even should influence) foreign policy. In this article, we first review the extensive gains in scholarly knowledge in the area of public opinion and foreign policy over the past several decades, emphasizing relatively recent work. We then suggest a framework, based on the concept of market equilibrium, aimed at synthesizing the disparate research programs that constitute the literature on public opinion and foreign policy. To do so, in addition to considering the relationship between leaders and the public, we incorporate a third strategic actor, the mass media, which we believe plays a critical role alongside citizens and elites in shaping the public's attitudes about, and influence on, foreign policy. Our goal is to clarify the multifaceted relationships between these actors and foreign policy outcomes.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-04-20},
	journal = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Baum, Matthew A. and Potter, Philip B.K.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {39--65},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/5JHFI2U2/Baum and Potter - 2008 - The Relationships Between Mass Media, Public Opini.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{baumMediaPublicOpinion2019,
	title = {Media, {Public} {Opinion}, and {Foreign} {Policy} in the {Age} of {Social} {Media}},
	volume = {81},
	issn = {0022-3816, 1468-2508},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/702233},
	doi = {10.1086/702233},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-04-20},
	journal = {The Journal of Politics},
	author = {Baum, Matthew A. and Potter, Philip B. K.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {747--756},
}

@article{saganDoesNoncombatantImmunity2020,
	title = {Does the {Noncombatant} {Immunity} {Norm} {Have} {Stopping} {Power}? {A} {Debate}},
	volume = {45},
	issn = {0162-2889, 1531-4804},
	shorttitle = {Does the {Noncombatant} {Immunity} {Norm} {Have} {Stopping} {Power}?},
	url = {https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/45/2/170-186/95267},
	doi = {10.1162/isec_a_00393},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-04-21},
	journal = {International Security},
	author = {Sagan, Scott D. and Valentino, Benjamin A. and Carpenter, Charli and Montgomery, Alexander H.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {170--186},
}

@article{carpenterStoppingPowerNorms2020,
	title = {The {Stopping} {Power} of {Norms}: {Saturation} {Bombing}, {Civilian} {Immunity}, and {U}.{S}. {Attitudes} toward the {Laws} of {War}},
	volume = {45},
	issn = {0162-2889, 1531-4804},
	shorttitle = {The {Stopping} {Power} of {Norms}},
	url = {https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/45/2/140-169/95259},
	doi = {10.1162/isec_a_00392},
	abstract = {In “Hiroshima in Iran: What Americans Really Think about Using Nuclear Weapons and Killing Noncombatants,” a pathbreaking survey of attitudes toward the laws of war published in the summer 2017 issue of International Security, Scott Sagan and Benjamin Valentino found that Americans are relatively insensitive to the targeting of civilian populations and to international norms and taboos against the use of nuclear weapons. We replicated a key question of this study, where respondents were asked if they would support saturation bombing an Iranian city to end a war. We also introduced some variations into the experiment to directly measure any potential influence of international norms and laws. Overall, our quantitative and qualitative findings are more optimistic than those of Sagan and Valentino's study: Americans do strongly believe it is wrong to target civilians. And in a real-life scenario such as this, a majority would likely oppose such a bombing. These findings suggest, however, that much depends on how survey questions are structured in measuring those preferences and whether legal or ethical considerations are part of any national conversation about war policy.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-04-21},
	journal = {International Security},
	author = {Carpenter, Charli and Montgomery, Alexander H.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {140--169},
}

@article{saganRevisitingHiroshimaIran2017,
	title = {Revisiting {Hiroshima} in {Iran}: {What} {Americans} {Really} {Think} about {Using} {Nuclear} {Weapons} and {Killing} {Noncombatants}},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {0162-2889, 1531-4804},
	shorttitle = {Revisiting {Hiroshima} in {Iran}},
	url = {https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/42/1/41-79/12168},
	doi = {10.1162/ISEC_a_00284},
	abstract = {Numerous polls demonstrate that U.S. public approval of President Harry Truman's decision to drop the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki has declined significantly since 1945. Many scholars and political figures argue that this decline constitutes compelling evidence of the emergence of a “nuclear taboo” or that the principle of noncombatant immunity has become a deeply held norm. An original survey experiment, recreating the situation that the United States faced in 1945 using a hypothetical U.S. war with Iran today, provides little support for the nuclear taboo thesis. In addition, it suggests that the U.S. public's support for the principle of noncombatant immunity is shallow and easily overcome by the pressures of war. When considering the use of nuclear weapons, the majority of Americans prioritize protecting U.S. troops and achieving American war aims, even when doing so would result in the deliberate killing of millions of foreign noncombatants. A number of individual-level traits—Republican Party identification, older age, and approval of the death penalty for convicted murderers—significantly increase support for using nuclear weapons against Iran. Women are no less willing (and, in some scenarios, more willing) than men to support nuclear weapons use. These findings highlight the limited extent to which the U.S. public has accepted the principles of just war doctrine and suggest that public opinion is unlikely to be a serious constraint on any president contemplating the use of nuclear weapons in the crucible of war.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-04-21},
	journal = {International Security},
	author = {Sagan, Scott D. and Valentino, Benjamin A.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {41--79},
}

@article{bakerPatriotismOpinionLeadership2001,
	title = {Patriotism or {Opinion} {Leadership}?: {The} {Nature} and {Origins} of the “{Rally} '{Round} the {Flag}” {Effect}},
	volume = {45},
	issn = {0022-0027, 1552-8766},
	shorttitle = {Patriotism or {Opinion} {Leadership}?},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002701045005006},
	doi = {10.1177/0022002701045005006},
	abstract = {In this study, the “rally effect”—the propensity for the American public to put aside political differences and support the president during international crises—is measured by considering the changes in presidential popularity following all 193 Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) between 1933 and 1992 as identified by the Correlates of War project. Summary analyses find minor, statistically insignificant rallies associated with uses of force, although sizable rallies are associated with particular subcategories of military crises. However, larger rallies are associated with the United States as both revisionist and originator of the dispute, with the initiation of a full interstate war, and with prominent headline placement in the New York Times. Regression analyses indicate that rallies are more likely when they are associated with White House statements and bipartisan support for the administration's policies. Findings suggest that the size and appearance of a rally depends primarily on how the crisis is presented to the public in terms of media coverage, bipartisan support, and White House spin.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2022-04-21},
	journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Baker, William D. and Oneal, John R.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2001},
	pages = {661--687},
}

@article{tomzPublicOpinionDemocratic2013a,
	title = {Public {Opinion} and the {Democratic} {Peace}},
	volume = {107},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0003055413000488/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055413000488},
	abstract = {One of the most striking findings in political science is the democratic peace: the absence of war between democracies. Some authors attempt to explain this phenomenon by highlighting the role of public opinion. They observe that democratic leaders are beholden to voters and argue that voters oppose war because of its human and financial costs. This logic predicts that democracies should behave peacefully in general, but history shows that democracies avoid war primarily in their relations with other democracies. In this article we investigate not whether democratic publics are averse to war in general, but whether they are especially reluctant to fight other democracies. We embedded experiments in public opinion polls in the United States and the United Kingdom and found that individuals are substantially less supportive of military strikes against democracies than against otherwise identical autocracies. Moreover, our experiments suggest that shared democracy pacifies the public primarily by changing perceptions of threat and morality, not by raising expectations of costs or failure. These findings shed light on a debate of enduring importance to scholars and policy makers.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-04-21},
	journal = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Tomz, Michael R. and Weeks, Jessica L. P.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {849--865},
}

@article{hainmuellerValidatingVignetteConjoint2015,
	title = {Validating vignette and conjoint survey experiments against real-world behavior},
	volume = {112},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {https://pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1416587112},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1416587112},
	abstract = {Significance
            Little evidence exists on whether preferences about hypothetical choices measured in a survey experiment are driven by the same structural determinants of the actual choices made in the real world. This study answers this question using a natural experiment as a behavioral benchmark. Comparing the results from conjoint and vignette experiments on which attributes of hypothetical immigrants generate support for naturalization with the outcomes of closely corresponding referendums in Switzerland, we find that the effects estimated from the surveys match the effects of the same attributes in the behavioral benchmark remarkably well. We also find that seemingly subtle differences in survey designs can produce significant differences in performance. Overall, the paired conjoint design performs the best.
          , 
            Survey experiments, like vignette and conjoint analyses, are widely used in the social sciences to elicit stated preferences and study how humans make multidimensional choices. However, there is a paucity of research on the external validity of these methods that examines whether the determinants that explain hypothetical choices made by survey respondents match the determinants that explain what subjects actually do when making similar choices in real-world situations. This study compares results from conjoint and vignette analyses on which immigrant attributes generate support for naturalization with closely corresponding behavioral data from a natural experiment in Switzerland, where some municipalities used referendums to decide on the citizenship applications of foreign residents. Using a representative sample from the same population and the official descriptions of applicant characteristics that voters received before each referendum as a behavioral benchmark, we find that the effects of the applicant attributes estimated from the survey experiments perform remarkably well in recovering the effects of the same attributes in the behavioral benchmark. We also find important differences in the relative performances of the different designs. Overall, the paired conjoint design, where respondents evaluate two immigrants side by side, comes closest to the behavioral benchmark; on average, its estimates are within 2\% percentage points of the effects in the behavioral benchmark.},
	language = {en},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2022-04-21},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Hainmueller, Jens and Hangartner, Dominik and Yamamoto, Teppei},
	month = feb,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {2395--2400},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/XMGU4QLN/Hainmueller et al. - 2015 - Validating vignette and conjoint survey experiment.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{christiansenForeignPolicyBegins2019,
	title = {Foreign policy begins at home: the local origin of support for {US} democracy promotion},
	volume = {45},
	issn = {0305-0629, 1547-7444},
	shorttitle = {Foreign policy begins at home},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03050629.2019.1610748},
	doi = {10.1080/03050629.2019.1610748},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-04-22},
	journal = {International Interactions},
	author = {Christiansen, William and Heinrich, Tobias and Peterson, Timothy M.},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {595--616},
}

@article{barabasAreSurveyExperiments2010,
	title = {Are {Survey} {Experiments} {Externally} {Valid}?},
	volume = {104},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0003055410000092/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055410000092},
	abstract = {Researchers use survey experiments to establish causal effects in descriptively representative samples, but concerns remain regarding the strength of the stimuli and the lack of realism in experimental settings. We explore these issues by comparing three national survey experiments on Medicare and immigration with contemporaneous natural experiments on the same topics. The survey experiments reveal that providing information increases political knowledge and alters attitudes. In contrast, two real-world government announcements had no discernable effects, except among people who were exposed to the same facts publicized in the mass media. Even among this exposed subsample, treatment effects were smaller and sometimes pointed in the opposite direction. Methodologically, our results suggest the need for caution when extrapolating from survey experiments. Substantively, we find that many citizens are able to recall factual information appearing in the news but may not adjust their beliefs and opinions in response to this information.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-04-23},
	journal = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Barabas, Jason and Jerit, Jennifer},
	month = may,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {226--242},
}

@article{dizajiPotentialEarlyPhase2013,
	title = {Potential early phase success and ultimate failure of economic sanctions: {A} {VAR} approach with an application to {Iran}},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	shorttitle = {Potential early phase success and ultimate failure of economic sanctions},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343313485487},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343313485487},
	abstract = {In order to explain why successes of economic sanctions predominantly occur in the first two years of a sanction episode, we analyse the dynamic economic and political impact of an economic sanction. Our theoretical analysis of the dynamics of adjustment gives us two important results: firstly, the strongest impact in terms of utility forgone occurs in the initial phase of the sanction episode and, secondly, the long-term gain of compliance decreases during a sanction episode and is lower in the long run than acknowledged by the usual comparative static analysis. On both accounts we expect that sanctions have a higher probability of success in the early phase and a lower probability of success in the long run. Next we build a comprehensive set of vector autoregressive (VAR) models that we apply to the case of a boycott of Iranian oil. An important innovation is that we include both economic and political factors in a VAR model of economic sanctions. Our VAR models find significant impacts of economic sanctions both on key economic variables (government consumption, imports, investment, income) and on two indicators of the political system (the Polity variable that describes shifts in the autocracy–democracy dimension and the Vanhanen Index of Democratization that describes political competition and participation). The impact of an oil boycott on the Iranian economy is considerable: oil and gas rents are important drivers of the Iranian key macroeconomic variables and ultimately of its political system. A reduction of oil and gas rents creates economic costs that act as incentives to move towards a more democratic setting. However, this effect is only significant in the first two years and turns negative after six to seven years, as adjustment of economic structures mitigates the economic and political impact of the sanctions.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2022-05-07},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Dizaji, Sajjad Faraji and van Bergeijk, Peter A G},
	month = nov,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {721--736},
}

@article{borzelContestationsLiberalInternational2021,
	title = {Contestations of the {Liberal} {International} {Order}: {From} {Liberal} {Multilateralism} to {Postnational} {Liberalism}},
	volume = {75},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {Contestations of the {Liberal} {International} {Order}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818320000570/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818320000570},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              The 1990s saw a systemic shift from the liberal post–World War II international order of
              liberal multilateralism
              (LIO I) to a post–Cold War international order of
              postnational liberalism
              (LIO II). LIO II has not been only rule-based but has openly pursued a liberal social purpose with a significant amount of authority beyond the nation-state. While postnational liberal institutions helped increase overall well-being globally, they were criticized for using double standards and institutionalizing state inequality. We argue that these institutional features of the postnational LIO II led to legitimation problems, which explain both the current wave of contestations and the strategies chosen by different contestants. We develop our argument first by mapping the growing liberal intrusiveness of international institutions. Second, we demonstrate the increased level and variety of contestations in international security and international refugee law. We show that increased liberal intrusiveness has led to a variety of contestation strategies, the choice of which is affected by the preference of a contestant regarding postnational liberalism and its power within the contested institution.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-05-13},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Börzel, Tanja A. and Zürn, Michael},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {282--305},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/M8TW4AUV/Börzel and Zürn - 2021 - Contestations of the Liberal International Order .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@misc{moretSanctionsCostsRussia2022,
	title = {Sanctions and the {Costs} of {Russia}’s {War} in {Ukraine}},
	url = {https://theglobalobservatory.org/2022/05/sanctions-and-the-costs-of-russias-war-in-ukraine/},
	publisher = {International Peace Institute},
	author = {Moret, Erica},
	month = may,
	year = {2022},
}

@book{mutzWinnersLosersPsychology2021,
	address = {Princeton},
	edition = {First edition},
	series = {Princeton studies in political behavior},
	title = {Winners and losers: the psychology of foreign trade},
	isbn = {978-0-691-20302-7 978-0-691-20303-4},
	shorttitle = {Winners and losers},
	abstract = {"Political scientists have long assumed that ordinary citizens' attitudes toward international trade are rooted in economic self-interest-yet studies of mass opinion over the last twenty years have shown that personal economic self-interest plays little, if any, role in attitudes toward trade. Increasingly, researchers are turning attention to alternative, non-economic decisions to understand this puzzle. The Psychology of Foreign Trade picks up this new strand of research. Mutz argues that American views of international trade are rooted in psychology, not economics. For instance, "in-group" biases that lead us to distrust distant and dissimilar others make for a mass public that is skeptical about trade, even in the face of an overwhelming consensus among economists that it is a net positive for the countries engaging in it. Likewise, in viewing trade through an "us versus them" lens, Americans tend to focus on trade not as a cooperative and mutually beneficial, but as a competition with the titular "winners and losers." This psychology approach-informed by data from Mutz's sophisticated set of surveys and experiments-helps illuminate long-standing puzzles around public opinion on trade: Why are minority groups in the US more favorable toward trade than white Americans? Why are women systematically less likely to favor trade than men? It also demonstrates how opinions on trade and globalization can shape larger issues such as election outcomes, as well as the kinds of social interactions and discrimination that our society tolerates. Finally, Mutz considers how malleable American attitudes on trade are-and argues that changing such attitudes through an understanding of their psychological basis could create long-term economic and societal benefits"--},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Mutz, Diana C.},
	year = {2021},
}

@article{milnerChoiceMultilateralismForeign2013,
	title = {The choice for multilateralism: {Foreign} aid and {American} foreign policy},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {1559-7431, 1559-744X},
	shorttitle = {The choice for multilateralism},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11558-012-9153-x},
	doi = {10.1007/s11558-012-9153-x},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-05-26},
	journal = {The Review of International Organizations},
	author = {Milner, Helen V. and Tingley, Dustin},
	month = sep,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {313--341},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/76BTFTL7/Milner and Tingley - 2013 - The choice for multilateralism Foreign aid and Am.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{eyalDataQualityPlatforms2021,
	title = {Data quality of platforms and panels for online behavioral research},
	issn = {1554-3528},
	url = {https://link.springer.com/10.3758/s13428-021-01694-3},
	doi = {10.3758/s13428-021-01694-3},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-05-26},
	journal = {Behavior Research Methods},
	author = {Eyal, Peer and David, Rothschild and Andrew, Gordon and Zak, Evernden and Ekaterina, Damer},
	month = sep,
	year = {2021},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/FYANGLWL/Eyal et al. - 2021 - Data quality of platforms and panels for online be.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{buenodemesquitaThinkingClearlyData2021,
	address = {Princeton},
	title = {Thinking clearly with data: a guide to quantitative reasoning and analysis},
	isbn = {978-0-691-21436-8 978-0-691-21435-1},
	shorttitle = {Thinking clearly with data},
	abstract = {"This is an intro-level text that teaches how to think clearly and conceptually about quantitative information, emphasizing ideas over technicality and assuming no prior exposure to data analysis, statistics, or quantitative methods. The books four parts present the foundation for quantiative reasoning: correlation and causation; statistical relationships; causal phenomena; and incorporating quantitative information into decision making. Within these parts it covers the array of tools used by social scientists, including regression, inference, experiments, research design, and more, all by explaining the rationale and logic behind such tools rather than focusing only on the technical calculations used for each. New concepts are presented simply, with the help of copious examples, and the books leans towards graphic rather than mathematical representation of data, with any technical material included in appendices"--},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan and Fowler, Anthony},
	year = {2021},
	keywords = {Methodology, Statistical methods, Sociology},
	annote = {Includes index},
}

@article{hellmeierHowForeignPressure2021,
	title = {How foreign pressure affects mass mobilization in favor of authoritarian regimes},
	volume = {27},
	issn = {1354-0661, 1460-3713},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1354066120934527},
	doi = {10.1177/1354066120934527},
	abstract = {Authoritarian regimes are frequent targets of international pressure in the form of economic sanctions or threats thereof. Existing research shows that foreign interventions can carry several unintended consequences for politics and the economy in the targeted countries. One of the side effects of such interventions is boosting support for incumbent autocrats. Public demonstrations in support of embattled leaders are one aspect of this dynamic. This article investigates the link between foreign pressure and domestic mobilization in favor of ruling autocrats. It is argued that pressure simultaneously increases regime supporters’ willingness to participate in rallies and the regime’s demand to display and even overstate regime support. Foreign pressure facilitates mobilization as autocrats can fuel nationalist sentiments and frame foreign interventions as an attack on the nation as a whole. At the same time, rallies are a strategic tool to reduce political opportunities for the opposition and to signal resolve to the international community. Empirically, I conduct the first quantitative analysis that evidences the existence of a relationship between international pressure and mobilization in support of incumbent autocrats. Using monthly data on rally events in all authoritarian regimes between 2003 and 2015, I find that sanctions but also threats significantly increase pro-government mobilization. In addition, I show evidence for a moderating role of media freedom in the targeted state, highlighting the importance of how international events are portrayed in national news.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-06-06},
	journal = {European Journal of International Relations},
	author = {Hellmeier, Sebastian},
	month = jun,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {450--477},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/4R7R4SAQ/Hellmeier - 2021 - How foreign pressure affects mass mobilization in .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{schmidtBreakingBanHeterogeneous2019,
	title = {Breaking the {Ban}? {The} {Heterogeneous} {Impact} of {US} {Contestation} of the {Torture} {Norm}},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {2057-3170, 2057-3189},
	shorttitle = {Breaking the {Ban}?},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/jogss/article/4/1/105/5347914},
	doi = {10.1093/jogss/ogy036},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-06-10},
	journal = {Journal of Global Security Studies},
	author = {Schmidt, Averell and Sikkink, Kathryn},
	month = jan,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {105--122},
}

@article{cordellDisaggregatingRepressionIdentifying2022,
	title = {Disaggregating {Repression}: {Identifying} {Physical} {Integrity} {Rights} {Allegations} in {Human} {Rights} {Reports}},
	volume = {66},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	shorttitle = {Disaggregating {Repression}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/doi/10.1093/isq/sqac016/6596334},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqac016},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Most cross-national human rights datasets rely on human coding to produce yearly, country-level indicators of state human rights practices. Hand-coding the documents that contain the information on which these scores are based is tedious and time-consuming, but has been viewed as necessary given the complexity and detail of the information contained in the text. However, advances in automated text analysis have the potential to streamline this process without sacrificing accuracy. In this research note, we take the first step in creating this streamlined process by employing a supervised machine learning automated coding method that extracts specific allegations of physical integrity rights violations from the original text of country reports on human rights. This method produces a dataset including 163,512 unique abuse allegations in 196 countries between 1999 and 2016. This dataset and method will assist researchers of physical integrity rights abuse because it will allow them to produce allegation-level human rights measures that have previously not existed and provide a jumping-off point for future projects aimed at using supervised machine learning to create global human rights metrics.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-06-19},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Cordell, Rebecca and Clay, K. Chad and Fariss, Christopher J. and Wood, Reed M. and Wright, Thorin M.},
	month = may,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {sqac016},
}

@article{avenburgHowSocialScientists2022,
	title = {How do social scientists reach causal inferences? {A} study of reception},
	issn = {0033-5177, 1573-7845},
	shorttitle = {How do social scientists reach causal inferences?},
	url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11135-022-01353-5},
	doi = {10.1007/s11135-022-01353-5},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-07-01},
	journal = {Quality \& Quantity},
	author = {Avenburg, Alejandro and Gerring, John and Seawright, Jason},
	year = {2022},
}

@article{chuDoesPublicOpinion2022,
	title = {Does {Public} {Opinion} {Affect} the {Preferences} of {Foreign} {Policy} {Leaders}? {Experimental} {Evidence} from the {UK} {Parliament}},
	volume = {84},
	issn = {0022-3816, 1468-2508},
	shorttitle = {Does {Public} {Opinion} {Affect} the {Preferences} of {Foreign} {Policy} {Leaders}?},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/719007},
	doi = {10.1086/719007},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-07-08},
	journal = {The Journal of Politics},
	author = {Chu, Jonathan A. and Recchia, Stefano},
	month = jul,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {1874--1877},
}

@article{tomzPublicOpinionDecisions2020a,
	title = {Public {Opinion} and {Decisions} {About} {Military} {Force} in {Democracies}},
	volume = {74},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818319000341/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818319000341},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Many theories of international relations assume that public opinion exerts a powerful effect on foreign policy in democracies. Previous research, based on observational data, has reached conflicting conclusions about this foundational assumption. We use experiments to examine two mechanisms—responsiveness and selection—through which opinion could shape decisions about the use of military force. We tested responsiveness by asking members of the Israeli parliament to consider a crisis in which we randomized information about public opinion. Parliamentarians were more willing to use military force when the public was in favor and believed that contravening public opinion would entail heavy political costs. We tested selection by asking citizens in Israel and the US to evaluate parties/candidates, which varied randomly on many dimensions. In both countries, security policy proved as electorally significant as economic and religious policy, and far more consequential than nonpolicy considerations such as gender, race, and experience. Overall, our experiments in two important democracies imply that citizens can affect policy by incentivizing incumbents and shaping who gets elected.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-07-08},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Tomz, Michael R. and Weeks, Jessica L.P. and Yarhi-Milo, Keren},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {119--143},
}

@misc{callaway2021differenceindifferences,
	title = {Difference-in-differences with a continuous treatment},
	url = {https://psantanna.com/files/CGBS.pdf},
	author = {Callaway, Brantly and Goodman-Bacon, Andrew and Sant'Anna, Pedro H. C.},
	year = {2024},
	note = {arXiv: 2107.02637 [econ.EM]},
}

@article{hydeExperimentsInternationalRelations2015,
	title = {Experiments in {International} {Relations}: {Lab}, {Survey}, and {Field}},
	volume = {18},
	issn = {1094-2939, 1545-1577},
	shorttitle = {Experiments in {International} {Relations}},
	url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-polisci-020614-094854},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-polisci-020614-094854},
	abstract = {At conferences, at seminars, and on political science blogs, the potential utility of experimental methods for international relations (IR) research continues to be a hotly contested topic. Given the recent rise in creative applications of experimental methods, now is a useful moment to reflect more generally on the potential value of experiments to study international affairs, how these inherently micro-level methods can shed light on bigger-picture questions, what has been learned already, what goals are probably out of reach, and how various research agendas in IR might productively incorporate experiments.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-07-22},
	journal = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Hyde, Susan D.},
	month = may,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {403--424},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/R4NZHFVG/Hyde - 2015 - Experiments in International Relations Lab, Surve.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{hydeRecapturingRegimeType2020,
	title = {Recapturing {Regime} {Type} in {International} {Relations}: {Leaders}, {Institutions}, and {Agency} {Space}},
	volume = {74},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {Recapturing {Regime} {Type} in {International} {Relations}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818319000365/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818319000365},
	abstract = {Abstract
            A wave of recent research challenges the role of regime type in international relations. One striking takeaway is that democratic and autocratic leaders can often achieve similar levels of domestic constraint, which in many issue areas results in similar international outcomes—leading many to question traditional views of democracies as distinctive in their international relations. In this review essay, we use recent contributions in the field to build what we call a “malleable constraints” framework, in which all governments have an institutionally defined default level of domestic audience constraint that is generally higher in democracies, but leaders maintain some agency within these institutions and can strategically increase their exposure to or insulation from this constraint. Using this framework, we argue that regime type is still a crucial differentiator in international affairs even if, as recent studies suggest, democratic and autocratic leaders can sometimes be similarly constrained by domestic audiences and thus achieve similar international outcomes. This framework helps reconcile many competing claims in recent scholarship, including the puzzle of why autocracies do not strategically increase domestic audience constraint more often. Just because autocracies can engage audience constraints and democracies can escape them does not mean that they can do so with equal ease, frequency, or risk.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-07-22},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Hyde, Susan D. and Saunders, Elizabeth N.},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {363--395},
}

@article{lindbergVDemNewWay2014,
	title = {V-{Dem}: {A} {New} {Way} to {Measure} {Democracy}},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1086-3214},
	shorttitle = {V-{Dem}},
	url = {http://muse.jhu.edu/content/crossref/journals/journal_of_democracy/v025/25.3.lindberg.html},
	doi = {10.1353/jod.2014.0040},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-07-27},
	journal = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Lindberg, Staffan I. and Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Teorell, Jan},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {159--169},
}

@book{forsytheHumanRightsInternational2017,
	address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom},
	title = {Human rights in international relations},
	isbn = {978-1-107-18391-9 978-1-316-63518-6},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Forsythe, David P.},
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {International relations, Political aspects, Human rights, International law and human rights},
	annote = {Establishing human rights standards -- Global application of human rights norms -- Transitional justice : criminal courts and alternatives -- Regional application of human rights norms -- Human rights and foreign policy in comparative perspective -- Non-governmental organizations and human rights -- Transnational corporations and human rights -- The communications media and human rights : traditional and social domains -- The politics of liberalism in a realist world},
}

@article{cope2018beyond,
	title = {Beyond physical integrity},
	volume = {81},
	doi = {https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/lcp/vol81/iss4/9},
	journal = {Law and Contemporary Problems},
	author = {Cope, Kevin L and Crabtree, Charles and Lupu, Yonatan},
	year = {2018},
	note = {Publisher: HeinOnline},
	pages = {185},
}

@article{poeRepressionHumanRights1994,
	title = {Repression of {Human} {Rights} to {Personal} {Integrity} in the 1980s: {A} {Global} {Analysis}},
	volume = {88},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	shorttitle = {Repression of {Human} {Rights} to {Personal} {Integrity} in the 1980s},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0003055400094521/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.2307/2082712},
	abstract = {This crossnational study seeks to explain variations in governmental repression of human rights to personal integrity (state terrorism) in a 153-country sample during the eighties. We outline theoretical perspectives on this topic and subject them to empirical tests using a technique appropriate for our pooled cross-sectional time-series design, namely, ordinary least squares with robust standard errors and a lagged dependent variable. We find democracy and participation in civil or international war to have substantively important and statistically significant effects on repression. The effects of economic development and population size are more modest. The hypothesis linking leftist regime types to abuse of personal integrity rights receives some support. We find no reliable evidence that population growth, British cultural influence, military control, or economic growth affect levels of repression. We conclude by considering the implications of our findings for scholars and practitioners concerned with the prevention of personal integrity abuse.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-07-28},
	journal = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Poe, Steven C. and Tate, C. Neal},
	month = dec,
	year = {1994},
	pages = {853--872},
}

@article{richardsRespectPhysicalIntegrityRights2015,
	title = {Respect for {Physical}-{Integrity} {Rights} in the {Twenty}-{First} {Century}: {Evaluating} {Poe} and {Tate}'s {Model} 20 {Years} {Later}},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {1475-4835, 1475-4843},
	shorttitle = {Respect for {Physical}-{Integrity} {Rights} in the {Twenty}-{First} {Century}},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14754835.2015.1061423},
	doi = {10.1080/14754835.2015.1061423},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-07-28},
	journal = {Journal of Human Rights},
	author = {Richards, David L. and Webb, Alyssa and Clay, K. Chad},
	month = jul,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {291--311},
}

@misc{farissLatentHumanRights2020,
	title = {Latent {Human} {Rights} {Protection} {Scores} {Version} 4},
	url = {https://dataverse.harvard.edu/citation?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/RQ85GK},
	doi = {10.7910/DVN/RQ85GK},
	abstract = {Updated latent variable estimates.},
	urldate = {2022-08-01},
	publisher = {Harvard Dataverse},
	author = {Fariss, Christopher J. and Kenwick, Michael and Reuning, Kevin},
	collaborator = {Fariss, Christopher J.},
	year = {2020},
}

@incollection{hsfkexport8693,
	title = {Nur {Mittel} zum {Zweck}: {Erfolgsbedingungen} von {Sanktionen}},
	url = {https://friedensgutachten.de/user/pages/02.2022/02.ausgabe/08.institutionelle-friedenssicherung/FGA2022_Kapitel%204.pdf},
	booktitle = {Friedensgutachten 2022},
	publisher = {Transcript},
	author = {Abb, Pascal and Attia, Hana and Brzoska, Michael and Daase, Christopher and Deitelhoff, Nicole and Grauvogel, Julia and Peez, Anton},
	editor = {Baumgart-Ochse, Claudia and Daase, Christopher and Deitelhoff, Nicole and Debiel, Tobias and Schröder, Ursula},
	year = {2022},
	pages = {111--131},
}

@article{sekhon2009opiates,
	title = {Opiates for the matches: {Matching} methods for causal inference},
	volume = {12},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Sekhon, Jasjeet},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {487--508},
}

@article{scheveDemocracyWarWealth2012,
	title = {Democracy, {War}, and {Wealth}: {Lessons} from {Two} {Centuries} of {Inheritance} {Taxation}},
	volume = {106},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	shorttitle = {Democracy, {War}, and {Wealth}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0003055411000517/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055411000517},
	abstract = {In this article we use an original data set to provide the first empirical analysis of the political economy of inherited wealth taxation that covers a significant number of countries and a long time frame (1816–2000). Our goal is to understand why, if inheritance taxes are often very old taxes, the implementation of inheritance tax rates significant enough to affect wealth inequality is a much more recent phenomenon. We hypothesize alternatively that significant taxation of inherited wealth depended on (1) the extension of the suffrage and (2) political conditions created by mass mobilization for war. Using a difference-in-differences framework for identification, we find little evidence for the suffrage hypothesis but very strong evidence for the mass mobilization hypothesis. Our study has implications for understanding the evolution of wealth inequality and the political conditions under which countries are likely to implement policies that significantly redistribute wealth and income.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-08-05},
	journal = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Scheve, Kenneth and Stasavage, David},
	month = feb,
	year = {2012},
	pages = {81--102},
}

@article{callawayDifferenceinDifferencesMultipleTime2021,
	title = {Difference-in-{Differences} with multiple time periods},
	volume = {225},
	issn = {03044076},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304407620303948},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.12.001},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-08-06},
	journal = {Journal of Econometrics},
	author = {Callaway, Brantly and Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {200--230},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/M3W8N9Y3/Callaway and Sant’Anna - 2021 - Difference-in-Differences with multiple time perio.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{przeworskiDemocracyMarketPolitical1991,
	address = {Cambridge, UK},
	title = {Democracy and the market political and economic reforms in {Eastern} {Europe} and {Latin} {America}},
	isbn = {978-1-139-17249-3},
	abstract = {"The quest for freedom from hunger and repression has triggered in recent years a worldwide movement toward political democracy and economic rationality. Never have so many people experimented with democratic institutions. At the same time, traditional strategies of economic development have collapsed in Eastern Europe and Latin America and entire economic systems are being transformed on both continents."--Back cover.},
	language = {English},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Przeworski, Adam},
	year = {1991},
	note = {OCLC: 1127445861},
}

@article{kurkiDemocracyConceptualContestability2010a,
	title = {Democracy and {Conceptual} {Contestability}: {Reconsidering} {Conceptions} of {Democracy} in {Democracy} {Promotion}},
	volume = {12},
	issn = {15219488},
	shorttitle = {Democracy and {Conceptual} {Contestability}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isr/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2486.2010.00943.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1468-2486.2010.00943.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-08-13},
	journal = {International Studies Review},
	author = {Kurki, Milja},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {362--386},
}

@book{dahlDemocracy1998,
	address = {New Haven},
	title = {On democracy},
	isbn = {978-0-300-07627-1},
	publisher = {Yale University Press},
	author = {Dahl, Robert A.},
	year = {1998},
	keywords = {Democracy},
}

@article{hydeDemocracyBackslidingInternational2020,
	title = {Democracy’s backsliding in the international environment},
	volume = {369},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abb2434},
	doi = {10.1126/science.abb2434},
	abstract = {If the end of the 20th century was defined by the relatively widespread acceptance of democracy, the second decade of the 21st century is marked by concerns about backsliding in new and established democracies alike and by a notable decline in foreign support for democracy around the world. As democracy’s global tailwinds shift to headwinds, scholars have an opportunity to better understand how experience with even superficial forms of democratic institutions across a diverse set of contexts influences citizen behavior when formal democratic institutions erode or disappear. This shift also provides the opportunity to examine whether citizen movements alone—absent external support—are sufficient to check newly emboldened autocrats.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6508},
	urldate = {2022-08-22},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Hyde, Susan D.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {1192--1196},
}

@article{boeseStateWorld20212022,
	title = {State of the world 2021: autocratization changing its nature?},
	issn = {1351-0347, 1743-890X},
	shorttitle = {State of the world 2021},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2022.2069751},
	doi = {10.1080/13510347.2022.2069751},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-08-22},
	journal = {Democratization},
	author = {Boese, Vanessa A. and Lundstedt, Martin and Morrison, Kelly and Sato, Yuko and Lindberg, Staffan I.},
	month = may,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {1--31},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/G48YQH8F/Boese et al. - 2022 - State of the world 2021 autocratization changing .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{boeseHowNotMeasure2019,
	title = {How (not) to measure democracy},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {2233-8659, 2049-1123},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2233865918815571},
	doi = {10.1177/2233865918815571},
	abstract = {Measures of democracy are regularly employed in the statistical analysis of economic, political, and social policy. This paper reviews the measures" setup, strength, and weaknesses across the three most prominent democracy datasets: PolityIV, Freedom House, and Varieties of Democracy. The measures developed by the Varieties of Democracy project outperform Polity2 and Freedom House Index with respect to the underlying definition and measurement scale, as well as the theoretical justification of the aggregation procedure. The three indices display a high level of agreement for those observations included in all three datasets. The most substantial differences between the indices lie in the indices’ coverage, i.e. in their non-missing observations (in Polity2 coding, for example, years during which a country is occupied by foreign powers constitute missing values), the availability of disaggregate data and the above mentioned key areas. This paper clarifies when to proceed with caution, but for the most part advocates the use of Varieties of Democracy in the statistical analysis of democracy.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-08-22},
	journal = {International Area Studies Review},
	author = {Boese, Vanessa A.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {95--127},
}

@article{alizadaAutocratizationChangingNature2022,
	title = {Autocratization {Changing} {Nature}?},
	issn = {1556-5068},
	url = {https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=4052548},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4052548},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-08-22},
	journal = {SSRN Electronic Journal},
	author = {Alizada, Nazifa and Boese, Vanessa Alexandra and Lundstedt, Martin and Morrison, Kelly and Natsika, Natalia and Sato, Yuko and Tai, Hugo and Lindberg, Staffan I.},
	year = {2022},
}

@article{wolffTheoryExternalDemocracy2011,
	title = {Towards a theory of external democracy promotion: {A} proposal for theoretical classification},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {0967-0106, 1460-3640},
	shorttitle = {Towards a theory of external democracy promotion},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0967010610393551},
	doi = {10.1177/0967010610393551},
	abstract = {A few years ago, it was a common complaint that the international dimension of democratization and, in particular, the external promotion of democracy were largely neglected by scholars of comparative politics and international relations. By now, academic research has begun to catch up with the growth of foreign and development policies explicitly aiming at the international promotion and protection of democratic regimes. Yet, what is still a largely unexplored desideratum is the challenge to theoretically grasp ‘democracy promotion’ as an aim and strategy of democratic foreign policies – that is, to embed the empirical research on democracy promotion in theoretical perspectives on international relations. This article sets out to contribute to filling this gap by developing a classification of competing theoretical approaches. First, research on the democratic peace – the one major research program concerned with democratic foreign policy – is used to derive potential motives behind the promotion of democracy. Then, on this basis, existing theories of international relations are modified in order to locate democracy promotion within the foreign policy of democratic states. In conclusion, the article presents four sketches of potential theoretical approaches to the external promotion of democracy.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-08-22},
	journal = {Security Dialogue},
	author = {Wolff, Jonas and Wurm, Iris},
	month = feb,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {77--96},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/QIN2MYJC/Wolff and Wurm - 2011 - Towards a theory of external democracy promotion .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{poppeIntroductionNegotiatingPromotion2019,
	title = {Introduction: negotiating the promotion of democracy},
	volume = {26},
	issn = {1351-0347, 1743-890X},
	shorttitle = {Introduction},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2019.1593379},
	doi = {10.1080/13510347.2019.1593379},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2022-08-22},
	journal = {Democratization},
	author = {Poppe, Annika Elena and Leininger, Julia and Wolff, Jonas},
	month = jul,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {759--776},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/8ZUWIW3W/Poppe et al. - 2019 - Introduction negotiating the promotion of democra.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{carothersRejuvenatingDemocracyPromotion2020,
	title = {Rejuvenating {Democracy} {Promotion}},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {1086-3214},
	url = {https://muse.jhu.edu/article/745958},
	doi = {10.1353/jod.2020.0009},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-08-22},
	journal = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Carothers, Thomas},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {114--123},
}

@article{beaulieuShadowDemocracyPromotion2009,
	title = {In the {Shadow} of {Democracy} {Promotion}: {Strategic} {Manipulation}, {International} {Observers}, and {Election} {Boycotts}},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {0010-4140, 1552-3829},
	shorttitle = {In the {Shadow} of {Democracy} {Promotion}},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0010414008325571},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414008325571},
	abstract = {International efforts to promote democracy can have unanticipated effects. International election observation is perceived to increase domestic confidence in the electoral process and reduce fraud. Conversely, election boycotts are perceived to be more likely as electoral fairness decreases. The authors document a puzzling relationship between monitored elections and opposition party boycotts: Observers are associated with an increased boycott probability. They argue that international benefits for democratic elections give electoral autocrats the incentive to invite international observers and manipulate elections to minimize international criticism. This increase in “strategic manipulation” has led to changed incentives for opposition political parties, which have the most to lose from a manipulated but internationally certified election. Consequently, international monitors increase boycott probability. The authors support this explanation with an original data set of elections, boycotts, and international observers (1990 to 2002).},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-08-22},
	journal = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Beaulieu, Emily and Hyde, Susan D.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {392--415},
}

@book{robinsonPromotingPolyarchyGlobalization1996,
	address = {Cambridge, UK},
	title = {Promoting polyarchy: globalization, {US} intervention, and hegemony},
	isbn = {978-0-521-56203-4 978-0-521-56691-9},
	shorttitle = {Promoting polyarchy},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Robinson, William I.},
	year = {1996},
	keywords = {History, World politics, 1989-, Foreign relations, United States, 20th century, Democracy, 1981-1989, 1985-1995},
}

@article{hydeWhichElectionsCan2012a,
	title = {Which {Elections} {Can} {Be} {Lost}?},
	volume = {20},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1047198700013097/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1093/pan/mpr040},
	abstract = {The concept of electoral competition is relevant to a variety of research agendas in political science, yet the question of how to measure electoral competition has received little direct attention. We revisit the distinction proposed by Giovanni Sartori between competition as a structure or rule of the game and competitiveness as an outcome of that game and argue that to understand which elections can be lost (and therefore when parties and leaders are potentially threatened by electoral accountability), scholars may be better off considering the full range of elections where competition is allowed. We provide a data set of all national elections between 1945 and 2006 and a measure of whether each election event is structured such that the competition is possible. We outline the pitfalls of other measures used by scholars to define the potential for electoral competition and show that such methods can lead to biased or incomplete findings. The new global data on elections and the minimal conditions necessary for electoral competition are introduced, followed by an empirical illustration of the differences between the proposed measure of competition and existing methods used to infer the existence of competition.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-08-23},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Hyde, Susan D. and Marinov, Nikolay},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {191--210},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/7IQ32MKS/Hyde and Marinov - 2012 - Which Elections Can Be Lost.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{cilizogluEconomicCoercionProblem2020,
	title = {Economic coercion and the problem of sanctions-proofing},
	volume = {37},
	issn = {0738-8942, 1549-9219},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0738894218783296},
	doi = {10.1177/0738894218783296},
	abstract = {Although sanctions generate economic costs, target states may “sanctions-proof” their regime by borrowing capital from abroad. While some targets obtain interest-free capital from black knight states, others may need to borrow with interest from international credit markets. These interest rates may sometimes make borrowing cost-prohibitive, giving targets no choice but to acquiesce to the demands of the sender. However, since senders cannot observe if black knight states are assisting target states, targets have an incentive to misrepresent their source of external capital. In an effort to deter sanctions, targets that must borrow at high interest rates may signal that they have black knight support and are sanctions-proofed. We formally and empirically demonstrate that in this uncertain environment, senders are more likely to impose sanctions on targets with low credit ratings, but only do so if the target places a relatively low value on uninterrupted economic transactions with the sender.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-08-23},
	journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
	author = {Cilizoglu, Menevis and Bapat, Navin A},
	month = jul,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {385--408},
}

@article{lopezMoreEthicalNot1999,
	title = {More {Ethical} than {Not}: {Sanctions} as {Surgical} {Tools}},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {0892-6794, 1747-7093},
	shorttitle = {More {Ethical} than {Not}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S089267940000188X/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1747-7093.1999.tb00331.x},
	abstract = {Joy Gordon has made a major contribution to both the ethical analysis and the policy evaluation of economic sanctions. But her claims against sanctions should be understood as critique rather than condemnation and rejection of sanctions on ethical grounds.
            Through a series of arguments and examples, this response points out that Gordon may be too narrow in defining sanctions' success, and that, where sanctions have gone awry, it is because they were unimaginatively formulated and poorly implemented, not because sanctions are categorically unethical. Multilateral sanctions in the late 1990s are simply more finely tuned than a few years ago. As a technique of coercive diplomacy, sanctions are meant to change dramatically the costs and benefits that leaders of a nation calculate operate in their favor as they pursue policies that the majority of the international community have declared abhorrent. We can, with the help of Gordon's critical claims, accomplish this goal in a more ethical manner, and by so doing, increase the likely success of sanctions in the future.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-08-28},
	journal = {Ethics \& International Affairs},
	author = {Lopez, George A.},
	year = {1999},
	pages = {143--148},
}

@article{dunningVoterInformationCampaigns2019,
	title = {Voter information campaigns and political accountability: {Cumulative} findings from a preregistered meta-analysis of coordinated trials},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {2375-2548},
	shorttitle = {Voter information campaigns and political accountability},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaw2612},
	doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aaw2612},
	abstract = {A preregistered meta-analysis of six field experiments finds no evidence overall that information campaigns shape voter behavior.
          , 
            Voters may be unable to hold politicians to account if they lack basic information about their representatives’ performance. Civil society groups and international donors therefore advocate using voter information campaigns to improve democratic accountability. Yet, are these campaigns effective? Limited replication, measurement heterogeneity, and publication biases may undermine the reliability of published research. We implemented a new approach to cumulative learning, coordinating the design of seven randomized controlled trials to be fielded in six countries by independent research teams. Uncommon for multisite trials in the social sciences, we jointly preregistered a meta-analysis of results in advance of seeing the data. We find no evidence overall that typical, nonpartisan voter information campaigns shape voter behavior, although exploratory and subgroup analyses suggest conditions under which informational campaigns could be more effective. Such null estimated effects are too seldom published, yet they can be critical for scientific progress and cumulative, policy-relevant learning.},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2022-08-29},
	journal = {Science Advances},
	author = {Dunning, Thad and Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Hyde, Susan D. and McIntosh, Craig and Nellis, Gareth and Adida, Claire L. and Arias, Eric and Bicalho, Clara and Boas, Taylor C. and Buntaine, Mark T. and Chauchard, Simon and Chowdhury, Anirvan and Gottlieb, Jessica and Hidalgo, F. Daniel and Holmlund, Marcus and Jablonski, Ryan and Kramon, Eric and Larreguy, Horacio and Lierl, Malte and Marshall, John and McClendon, Gwyneth and Melo, Marcus A. and Nielson, Daniel L. and Pickering, Paula M. and Platas, Melina R. and Querubín, Pablo and Raffler, Pia and Sircar, Neelanjan},
	month = jul,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {eaaw2612},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/U98RQVBT/Dunning et al. - 2019 - Voter information campaigns and political accounta.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{attiaInternationalSanctionsTermination2023,
	title = {International {Sanctions} {Termination}, 1990–2018: {Introducing} the {IST} dataset},
	volume = {60},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	shorttitle = {International {Sanctions} {Termination}, 1990–2018},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00223433221087080},
	doi = {10.1177/00223433221087080},
	abstract = {Despite intense public and policy debates about the termination (and re-instatement) of sanctions in cases such as Iran, Cuba and Russia, research has hitherto focused on sanctions imposition and effectiveness, directing little attention towards their removal. Existing work has been constrained by a lack of adequate data. In response, we introduce a novel dataset that contains information on the termination of all EU, UN, US and regional sanctions between 1990 and 2018. In contrast to previous datasets, which rely on media reports, the International Sanctions Termination (IST) dataset systematically codes official governmental and intergovernmental documents. It contains information on the design of sanctions – including expiry dates, review provisions and termination requirements – and captures the gradual process of adapting and ending sanctions. The article describes the data collection process, considers IST’s complementarity to and compatibility with existing datasets, and discusses the newly captured variables, exploring how they affect the termination of sanctions. The results indicate that changes in the sender’s goals and investments in monitoring devices lead to significantly longer sanctions spells. By contrast, clearly stipulated termination requirements decrease the expected duration of sanctions.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-08-30},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Attia, Hana and Grauvogel, Julia},
	year = {2023},
	pages = {709--719},
}

@article{nosekPromotingOpenResearch2015,
	title = {Promoting an open research culture},
	volume = {348},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aab2374},
	doi = {10.1126/science.aab2374},
	abstract = {Author guidelines for journals could help to promote transparency, openness, and reproducibility
          , 
            
              Transparency, openness, and reproducibility are readily recognized as vital features of science (
              
                1
              
              ,
              
                2
              
              ). When asked, most scientists embrace these features as disciplinary norms and values (
              
                3
              
              ). Therefore, one might expect that these valued features would be routine in daily practice. Yet, a growing body of evidence suggests that this is not the case (
              
                4
              
              –
              
                6
              
              ).},
	language = {en},
	number = {6242},
	urldate = {2022-08-31},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Nosek, B. A. and Alter, G. and Banks, G. C. and Borsboom, D. and Bowman, S. D. and Breckler, S. J. and Buck, S. and Chambers, C. D. and Chin, G. and Christensen, G. and Contestabile, M. and Dafoe, A. and Eich, E. and Freese, J. and Glennerster, R. and Goroff, D. and Green, D. P. and Hesse, B. and Humphreys, M. and Ishiyama, J. and Karlan, D. and Kraut, A. and Lupia, A. and Mabry, P. and Madon, T. and Malhotra, N. and Mayo-Wilson, E. and McNutt, M. and Miguel, E. and Paluck, E. Levy and Simonsohn, U. and Soderberg, C. and Spellman, B. A. and Turitto, J. and VandenBos, G. and Vazire, S. and Wagenmakers, E. J. and Wilson, R. and Yarkoni, T.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {1422--1425},
	file = {Accepted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/N2NELPHQ/Nosek et al. - 2015 - Promoting an open research culture.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{auspurgHasCredibilitySocial2021,
	title = {Has the {Credibility} of the {Social} {Sciences} {Been} {Credibly} {Destroyed}? {Reanalyzing} the “{Many} {Analysts}, {One} {Data} {Set}” {Project}},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {2378-0231, 2378-0231},
	shorttitle = {Has the {Credibility} of the {Social} {Sciences} {Been} {Credibly} {Destroyed}?},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/23780231211024421},
	doi = {10.1177/23780231211024421},
	abstract = {In 2018, Silberzahn, Uhlmann, Nosek, and colleagues published an article in which 29 teams analyzed the same research question with the same data: Are soccer referees more likely to give red cards to players with dark skin tone than light skin tone? The results obtained by the teams differed extensively. Many concluded from this widely noted exercise that the social sciences are not rigorous enough to provide definitive answers. In this article, we investigate why results diverged so much. We argue that the main reason was an unclear research question: Teams differed in their interpretation of the research question and therefore used diverse research designs and model specifications. We show by reanalyzing the data that with a clear research question, a precise definition of the parameter of interest, and theory-guided causal reasoning, results vary only within a narrow range. The broad conclusion of our reanalysis is that social science research needs to be more precise in its “estimands” to become credible.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-08-31},
	journal = {Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World},
	author = {Auspurg, Katrin and Brüderl, Josef},
	month = jan,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {237802312110244},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/4PVAETPU/Auspurg and Brüderl - 2021 - Has the Credibility of the Social Sciences Been Cr.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@incollection{cilizogluResearchingModernEconomic2021,
	title = {Researching {Modern} {Economic} {Sanctions}},
	isbn = {978-0-19-084662-6},
	url = {https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-599},
	abstract = {Economic sanctions are an integral part of states’ foreign policy repertoire. Increasingly, major powers and international organizations rely on sanctions to address an incredibly diverse array of issues—from fighting corruption to the prevention of nuclear weapons. How policy makers employ economic sanctions evolved over time, especially over the past two decades. The recognition of the adverse humanitarian impact of economic sanctions in the late 1990s and the “War on Terrorism” following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks have led to major changes in the design and enforcement patterns of economic sanctions. Academics’ understanding of how these coercive tools work, when they are utilized, what consequences they create, and when they succeed are still heavily shaped by research findings based on observations from the latter half of the 20th century. Insights based on past sanctions episodes may not fully apply to how sanctions policies are being currently used.
            In the latter half of the 20th century, the majority of sanctions cases were initiated by the United States, targeted governments, and involved restrictions on international trade. In the last two decades, however, additional actors, such as the European Union, the United Nations, and China, have emerged as major senders. Modern sanctions now most commonly involve targeted and financial sanctions and are imposed against individuals, organizations, and firms. The changing nature of the senders, targets, stakeholders, and economic tools associated with sanctions policies have important implications for their enforcement, effectiveness, and consequences. The legal-regulatory and bureaucratic infrastructure needed to implement and enforce modern economic sanctions has also become far more robust. This evolution of modern sanctions has provided the scholarly community with plenty of opportunities to explore new questions about economic coercion and revisit old ones. The research agenda on economic sanctions must evolve to remain relevant in understanding why and how modern sanctions are used and what their consequences are.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-08-31},
	booktitle = {Oxford {Research} {Encyclopedia} of {International} {Studies}},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Cilizoglu, Menevis and Early, Bryan R.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2021},
	doi = {10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.013.599},
}

@book{wallensteenMakingTargetedSanctions2003,
	address = {Uppsala},
	title = {Making targeted sanctions effective: guidelines for the implementation of {UN} policy options},
	isbn = {978-91-506-1657-6},
	shorttitle = {Making targeted sanctions effective},
	publisher = {Uppsala University},
	editor = {Wallensteen, Peter and Staibano, Carina and Eriksson, Mikael},
	year = {2003},
	keywords = {Economic sanctions, Sanctions, Sanctions (International law), United Nations},
	annote = {"Results from the Stockholm Process on the Implementation of Targeted Sanctions." Includes index},
}

@article{kangEconomicSanctionsRepression2022,
	title = {Economic sanctions, repression capacity, and human rights},
	issn = {1475-4835, 1475-4843},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14754835.2022.2096404},
	doi = {10.1080/14754835.2022.2096404},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-09-01},
	journal = {Journal of Human Rights},
	author = {Kang, Sinjae and Lee, Sangmin and Whang, Taehee},
	month = jul,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {1--18},
}

@article{doleacEvidencebasedPolicyShould2019,
	title = {“{Evidence}-based policy” should reflect a hierarchy of evidence: {Point}/{Counterpoint}},
	volume = {38},
	issn = {02768739},
	shorttitle = {“{EVIDENCE}-{BASED} {POLICY}” {SHOULD} {REFLECT} {A} {HIERARCHY} {OF} {EVIDENCE}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pam.22118},
	doi = {10.1002/pam.22118},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-09-04},
	journal = {Journal of Policy Analysis and Management},
	author = {Doleac, Jennifer L.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {517--519},
}

@misc{smeltzFewSignsUkraine2022a,
	title = {Few {Signs} of “{Ukraine} {Fatigue}” {Among} {American} {Public}},
	url = {https://web.archive.org/web/20230815023244/https://globalaffairs.org/sites/default/files/2022-08/Final%20Ukraine%20Brief%20-%202022%20CCS.pdf},
	publisher = {Chicago Council on Global Affairs},
	author = {Smeltz, Dina and Sullivan, Emily},
	month = aug,
	year = {2022},
}

@article{wolffVarietiesDemocracyDefense2022,
	title = {From the {Varieties} of {Democracy} to the defense of liberal democracy: {V}-{Dem} and the reconstitution of liberal hegemony under threat},
	issn = {1356-9775, 1469-3631},
	shorttitle = {From the {Varieties} of {Democracy} to the defense of liberal democracy},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13569775.2022.2096191},
	doi = {10.1080/13569775.2022.2096191},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-09-16},
	journal = {Contemporary Politics},
	author = {Wolff, Jonas},
	month = jul,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {1--21},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/FZGA689J/Wolff - 2022 - From the Varieties of Democracy to the defense of .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@misc{schoenfeldSecurityCouncilDebates2019,
	title = {The {UN} {Security} {Council} {Debates}},
	url = {https://dataverse.harvard.edu/citation?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/KGVSYH},
	doi = {10.7910/DVN/KGVSYH},
	abstract = {This is a dataset of UN Security Council debates between January 1995 and December 2020. The official meeting protocols are split into distinct speeches. For every speech, metadata regarding the speaker, the speaker's nation or affiliation, and the speaker's role in the meeting is given. The topic of the meeting is also given. In total, the corpus contains 82,165 speeches extracted from 5,748 meeting protocols. Please see our related paper for a detailed description of the creation of the dataset: arXiv:1906.10969.},
	urldate = {2022-09-22},
	publisher = {Harvard Dataverse},
	author = {Schoenfeld, Mirco and Eckhard, Steffen and Patz, Ronny and Meegdenburg, Hilde Van and Pires, Antonio},
	collaborator = {Schoenfeld, Mirco},
	year = {2019},
}

@book{wuthnowChineseDiplomacySecurity2015,
	address = {London},
	title = {Chinese diplomacy and the {UN} {Security} {Council}: beyond the veto},
	isbn = {978-1-138-12039-6},
	shorttitle = {Chinese diplomacy and the {UN} {Security} {Council}},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Wuthnow, Joel},
	year = {2015},
	note = {OCLC: 913767969},
}

@article{aveyDoesSocialScience2022a,
	title = {Does {Social} {Science} {Inform} {Foreign} {Policy}? {Evidence} from a {Survey} of {US} {National} {Security}, {Trade}, and {Development} {Officials}},
	volume = {66},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	shorttitle = {Does {Social} {Science} {Inform} {Foreign} {Policy}?},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/doi/10.1093/isq/sqab057/6321904},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqab057},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Scholars continue to debate the relationship of academic international relations to policy. One of the most straightforward ways to discern whether policymakers find IR scholarship relevant to their work is to ask them. We analyzed an elite survey of US policy practitioners to better understand the conditions under which practitioners use academic knowledge in their work. We surveyed officials across three different policy areas: international development, national security, and trade. We also employed multiple survey experiments in an effort to causally identify the impact of academic consensus on the views of policy officials and to estimate the relative utility of different kinds of research outputs. We found that policymakers frequently engage with academic ideas, find an array of research outputs and approaches useful, and that scholarly findings can shift their views. Key obstacles to using academic knowledge include practitioners' lack of time as well as academic work being too abstract and not timely, but not that it is overly quantitative. Additionally, we documented important differences between national security officials and their counterparts who work in the areas of development and trade. We suggest that this variation is rooted in the nature of the different policy areas.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-10-05},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Avey, Paul C. and Desch, Michael C. and Parajon, Eric and Peterson, Susan and Powers, Ryan and Tierney, Michael J.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {sqab057},
}

@article{eilstrup-sangiovanniContemporaryGlobalOrder2020a,
	title = {Of the contemporary global order, crisis, and change},
	volume = {27},
	issn = {1350-1763, 1466-4429},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2019.1678665},
	doi = {10.1080/13501763.2019.1678665},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2022-10-12},
	journal = {Journal of European Public Policy},
	author = {Eilstrup-Sangiovanni, Mette and Hofmann, Stephanie C.},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {1077--1089},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/Y2XF6HZD/Eilstrup-Sangiovanni and Hofmann - 2020 - Of the contemporary global order, crisis, and chan.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{dillKettlesHawksPublic2022,
	title = {Kettles of {Hawks}: {Public} {Opinion} on the {Nuclear} {Taboo} and {Noncombatant} {Immunity} in the {United} {States}, {United} {Kingdom}, {France}, and {Israel}},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {0963-6412, 1556-1852},
	shorttitle = {Kettles of {Hawks}},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2022.2038663},
	doi = {10.1080/09636412.2022.2038663},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-10-16},
	journal = {Security Studies},
	author = {Dill, Janina and Sagan, Scott and Valentino, Benjamin},
	month = jan,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {1--31},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/7BAHWGU6/Dill et al. - 2022 - Kettles of Hawks Public Opinion on the Nuclear Ta.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{zimmermannInternationalNormDisputes2023b,
	address = {Oxford, UK},
	title = {International {Norm} {Disputes}. {The} {Link} between {Contestation} and {Norm} {Robustness}},
	isbn = {978-0-19-887323-5},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Zimmermann, Lisbeth and Deitelhoff, Nicole and Lesch, Max and Arcudi, Antonio and Peez, Anton},
	year = {2023},
}

@article{dreznerHowNotSanction2022a,
	title = {How {Not} {To} {Sanction}},
	volume = {98},
	doi = {10.1093/ia/iiac065},
	number = {5},
	journal = {International Affairs},
	author = {Drezner, Daniel W.},
	year = {2022},
	pages = {1533--1552},
}

@article{breznauObservingManyResearchers2022,
	title = {Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty},
	volume = {119},
	issn = {1091-6490},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.2203150119},
	abstract = {This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95\% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.},
	language = {eng},
	number = {44},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
	author = {Breznau, Nate and Rinke, Eike Mark and Wuttke, Alexander and Nguyen, Hung H. V. and Adem, Muna and Adriaans, Jule and Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia and Andersen, Henrik K. and Auer, Daniel and Azevedo, Flavio and Bahnsen, Oke and Balzer, Dave and Bauer, Gerrit and Bauer, Paul C. and Baumann, Markus and Baute, Sharon and Benoit, Verena and Bernauer, Julian and Berning, Carl and Berthold, Anna and Bethke, Felix S. and Biegert, Thomas and Blinzler, Katharina and Blumenberg, Johannes N. and Bobzien, Licia and Bohman, Andrea and Bol, Thijs and Bostic, Amie and Brzozowska, Zuzanna and Burgdorf, Katharina and Burger, Kaspar and Busch, Kathrin B. and Carlos-Castillo, Juan and Chan, Nathan and Christmann, Pablo and Connelly, Roxanne and Czymara, Christian S. and Damian, Elena and Ecker, Alejandro and Edelmann, Achim and Eger, Maureen A. and Ellerbrock, Simon and Forke, Anna and Forster, Andrea and Gaasendam, Chris and Gavras, Konstantin and Gayle, Vernon and Gessler, Theresa and Gnambs, Timo and Godefroidt, Amélie and Grömping, Max and Groß, Martin and Gruber, Stefan and Gummer, Tobias and Hadjar, Andreas and Heisig, Jan Paul and Hellmeier, Sebastian and Heyne, Stefanie and Hirsch, Magdalena and Hjerm, Mikael and Hochman, Oshrat and Hövermann, Andreas and Hunger, Sophia and Hunkler, Christian and Huth, Nora and Ignácz, Zsófia S. and Jacobs, Laura and Jacobsen, Jannes and Jaeger, Bastian and Jungkunz, Sebastian and Jungmann, Nils and Kauff, Mathias and Kleinert, Manuel and Klinger, Julia and Kolb, Jan-Philipp and Kołczyńska, Marta and Kuk, John and Kunißen, Katharina and Kurti Sinatra, Dafina and Langenkamp, Alexander and Lersch, Philipp M. and Löbel, Lea-Maria and Lutscher, Philipp and Mader, Matthias and Madia, Joan E. and Malancu, Natalia and Maldonado, Luis and Marahrens, Helge and Martin, Nicole and Martinez, Paul and Mayerl, Jochen and Mayorga, Oscar J. and McManus, Patricia and McWagner, Kyle and Meeusen, Cecil and Meierrieks, Daniel and Mellon, Jonathan and Merhout, Friedolin and Merk, Samuel and Meyer, Daniel and Micheli, Leticia and Mijs, Jonathan and Moya, Cristóbal and Neunhoeffer, Marcel and Nüst, Daniel and Nygård, Olav and Ochsenfeld, Fabian and Otte, Gunnar and Pechenkina, Anna O. and Prosser, Christopher and Raes, Louis and Ralston, Kevin and Ramos, Miguel R. and Roets, Arne and Rogers, Jonathan and Ropers, Guido and Samuel, Robin and Sand, Gregor and Schachter, Ariela and Schaeffer, Merlin and Schieferdecker, David and Schlueter, Elmar and Schmidt, Regine and Schmidt, Katja M. and Schmidt-Catran, Alexander and Schmiedeberg, Claudia and Schneider, Jürgen and Schoonvelde, Martijn and Schulte-Cloos, Julia and Schumann, Sandy and Schunck, Reinhard and Schupp, Jürgen and Seuring, Julian and Silber, Henning and Sleegers, Willem and Sonntag, Nico and Staudt, Alexander and Steiber, Nadia and Steiner, Nils and Sternberg, Sebastian and Stiers, Dieter and Stojmenovska, Dragana and Storz, Nora and Striessnig, Erich and Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin and Teltemann, Janna and Tibajev, Andrey and Tung, Brian and Vagni, Giacomo and Van Assche, Jasper and van der Linden, Meta and van der Noll, Jolanda and Van Hootegem, Arno and Vogtenhuber, Stefan and Voicu, Bogdan and Wagemans, Fieke and Wehl, Nadja and Werner, Hannah and Wiernik, Brenton M. and Winter, Fabian and Wolf, Christof and Yamada, Yuki and Zhang, Nan and Ziller, Conrad and Zins, Stefan and Żółtak, Tomasz},
	month = nov,
	year = {2022},
	pmid = {36306328},
	keywords = {analytical flexibility, immigration and policy preferences, many analysts, metascience, researcher degrees of freedom},
	pages = {e2203150119},
}

@article{dillInconstantCarePublic2022,
	title = {Inconstant {Care}: {Public} {Attitudes} {Towards} {Force} {Protection} and {Civilian} {Casualties} in the {United} {States}, {United} {Kingdom}, and {Israel}},
	issn = {0022-0027, 1552-8766},
	shorttitle = {Inconstant {Care}},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027221119768},
	doi = {10.1177/00220027221119768},
	abstract = {The choice between protecting friendly soldiers or foreign civilians is a critical strategic dilemma faced in modern war. Prevailing theories suggest that casualties among both groups depress war support in Western democratic societies. Yet we know little about how ordinary citizens balance force protection and civilian casualty avoidance, and whether public opinion differs across Western democracies. Using survey experiments, we test three micro-foundations for what we call individuals’ “harm-transfer preferences:” self-interest, perception of soldiers’ consent to risk-taking, and nationalism. We find that respondents’ perception of soldiers’ consent and respondents’ nationalism explain individual-level variation in harm-transfer preferences. Moreover, Israeli citizens are significantly more likely than American or British citizens to prefer protecting friendly forces over avoiding foreign civilian casualties. This is associated with higher levels of nationalism and the perceptions that soldiers do not consent to risking their lives in Israel compared to the United States and the United Kingdom.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-10-30},
	journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Dill, Janina and Sagan, Scott and Valentino, Benjamin},
	month = aug,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {002200272211197},
}

@article{rathbunTakingForeignPolicy2016a,
	title = {Taking {Foreign} {Policy} {Personally}: {Personal} {Values} and {Foreign} {Policy} {Attitudes}},
	volume = {60},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	shorttitle = {Taking {Foreign} {Policy} {Personally}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/isq/sqv012},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqv012},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-10-31},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Rathbun, Brian C. and Kertzer, Joshua D. and Reifler, Jason and Goren, Paul and Scotto, Thomas J.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {124--137},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/E5Q524JI/Rathbun et al. - 2016 - Taking Foreign Policy Personally Personal Values .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{kertzerMoralSupportHow2014,
	title = {Moral {Support}: {How} {Moral} {Values} {Shape} {Foreign} {Policy} {Attitudes}},
	volume = {76},
	issn = {0022-3816, 1468-2508},
	shorttitle = {Moral {Support}},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1017/S0022381614000073},
	doi = {10.1017/S0022381614000073},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-10-31},
	journal = {The Journal of Politics},
	author = {Kertzer, Joshua D. and Powers, Kathleen E. and Rathbun, Brian C. and Iyer, Ravi},
	month = jul,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {825--840},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/H9U2IHHM/Kertzer et al. - 2014 - Moral Support How Moral Values Shape Foreign Poli.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{gravelleStructureForeignPolicy2017,
	title = {The structure of foreign policy attitudes in transatlantic perspective: {Comparing} the {United} {States}, {United} {Kingdom}, {France} and {Germany}},
	volume = {56},
	issn = {03044130},
	shorttitle = {The structure of foreign policy attitudes in transatlantic perspective},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1475-6765.12197},
	doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12197},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-10-31},
	journal = {European Journal of Political Research},
	author = {Gravelle, Timothy B. and Reifler, Jason and Scotto, Thomas J.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {757--776},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/E3MQFV42/Gravelle et al. - 2017 - The structure of foreign policy attitudes in trans.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{bansakUsingConjointExperiments2022a,
	title = {Using {Conjoint} {Experiments} to {Analyze} {Election} {Outcomes}: {The} {Essential} {Role} of the {Average} {Marginal} {Component} {Effect}},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	shorttitle = {Using {Conjoint} {Experiments} to {Analyze} {Election} {Outcomes}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S104719872200016X/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/pan.2022.16},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              Political scientists have increasingly deployed conjoint survey experiments to understand multidimensional choices in various settings. In this paper, we show that the average marginal component effect (AMCE) constitutes an aggregation of individual-level preferences that is meaningful both theoretically and empirically. First, extending previous results to allow for arbitrary randomization distributions, we show how the AMCE represents a summary of voters’ multidimensional preferences that combines directionality and intensity according to a probabilistic generalization of the Borda rule. We demonstrate why incorporating both the directionality and intensity of multi-attribute preferences is essential for analyzing real-world elections, in which
              ceteris paribus
              comparisons almost never occur. Second, and in further empirical support of this point, we show how this aggregation translates directly into a primary quantity of interest to election scholars: the effect of a change in an attribute on a candidate’s or party’s expected vote share. These properties hold irrespective of the heterogeneity, strength, or interactivity of voters’ preferences and regardless of how votes are aggregated into seats. Finally, we propose, formalize, and evaluate the feasibility of using conjoint data to estimate alternative quantities of interest to electoral studies, including the effect of an attribute on the probability of winning.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-10-31},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Bansak, Kirk and Hainmueller, Jens and Hopkins, Daniel J. and Yamamoto, Teppei},
	year = {2022},
	pages = {1--19},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/Z97XDPPI/Bansak et al. - 2022 - Using Conjoint Experiments to Analyze Election Out.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@incollection{bansakConjointSurveyExperiments2021a,
	title = {Conjoint {Survey} {Experiments}},
	isbn = {978-1-108-77791-9 978-1-108-47850-2 978-1-108-74588-8},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/9781108777919%23c2/type/book_part},
	urldate = {2022-10-31},
	booktitle = {Advances in {Experimental} {Political} {Science}},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Bansak, Kirk and Hainmueller, Jens and Hopkins, Daniel J. and Yamamoto, Teppei},
	editor = {Druckman, James and Green, Donald P.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2021},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108777919.004},
	pages = {19--41},
}

@article{dillAttitudesUseForce2021,
	title = {Attitudes toward the {Use} of {Force}: {Instrumental} {Imperatives}, {Moral} {Principles}, and {International} {Law}},
	volume = {65},
	issn = {0092-5853, 1540-5907},
	shorttitle = {Attitudes toward the {Use} of {Force}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12635},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12635},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-11-07},
	journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Dill, Janina and Schubiger, Livia I.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {612--633},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/4ZFZNBG3/Dill and Schubiger - 2021 - Attitudes toward the Use of Force Instrumental Im.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{kertzerBottomUpTheoryPublic2017,
	title = {A {Bottom}-{Up} {Theory} of {Public} {Opinion} about {Foreign} {Policy}},
	volume = {61},
	issn = {00925853},
	shorttitle = {A {Bottom}-{Up} {Theory} of {Public} {Opinion} about {Foreign} {Policy}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12314},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12314},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-11-08},
	journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Kertzer, Joshua D. and Zeitzoff, Thomas},
	month = jul,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {543--558},
}

@article{kertzerExperimentsSurveysPolitical2022,
	title = {Experiments and {Surveys} on {Political} {Elites}},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1094-2939, 1545-1577},
	url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-013649},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-013649},
	abstract = {One of the major developments in political science in the past decade has been the rise of experiments and surveys on political elites. Yet, the increase in the number of elite studies has outpaced our collective understanding of best practices and how we know a good elite experiment when we see one. In this article, we discuss some of the challenges in the study of political elites—from who counts as an elite to how to best utilize elite experiments in the context of broader research designs. We also offer recommendations on questions of access, recruitment, and representativeness, as well as designs that researchers can use to study “eliteness” without access to elites.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-11-08},
	journal = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Kertzer, Joshua D. and Renshon, Jonathan},
	month = may,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {529--550},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/5R84URDV/Kertzer and Renshon - 2022 - Experiments and Surveys on Political Elites.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{kertzerReAssessingElitePublicGaps2022,
	title = {Re‐{Assessing} {Elite}‐{Public} {Gaps} in {Political} {Behavior}},
	volume = {66},
	issn = {0092-5853, 1540-5907},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12583},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12583},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-11-08},
	journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Kertzer, Joshua D.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {539--553},
}

@article{busbyMultilateralismUseForce2020,
	title = {Multilateralism and the {Use} of {Force}: {Experimental} {Evidence} on the {Views} of {Foreign} {Policy} {Elites}},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1743-8586, 1743-8594},
	shorttitle = {Multilateralism and the {Use} of {Force}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/fpa/article/16/1/118/5380599},
	doi = {10.1093/fpa/orz005},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              
              International relations scholars have found that multilateral approval increases public support for the use of military force and have developed competing explanations for this phenomenon. However, this literature has given little attention to the attitudes of individuals who participate directly in the foreign policy process or shape foreign policy debates. In this research note, we administer a survey experiment to both a cross-section of US foreign policy elites and a nationally representative sample of the US public. We find that US foreign policy elites are more responsive to multilateral approval than the US public, with elites with direct foreign policy decision-making experience valuing it especially highly. These findings point to the importance of considering differences between elites and the public when investigating or theorizing about the impact of multilateral cooperation on domestic politics.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-11-08},
	journal = {Foreign Policy Analysis},
	author = {Busby, Joshua and Kafura, Craig and Monten, Jonathan and Tama, Jordan},
	month = jan,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {118--129},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/8ASZGSH7/Busby et al. - 2020 - Multilateralism and the Use of Force Experimental.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@techreport{kertzer2019elite,
	title = {Elite misperceptions and the domestic politics of conflict},
	institution = {Working paper},
	author = {Kertzer, Joshua D. and Busby, Joshua and Monten, Jonathan and Tama, Jordan and Kafura, Craig},
	year = {2019},
}

@article{giftWhoOutTouch2021,
	title = {Who's {Out} of {Touch}? {Media} {Misperception} of {Public} {Opinion} on {US} {Foreign} {Policy}},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {1743-8586, 1743-8594},
	shorttitle = {Who's {Out} of {Touch}?},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/fpa/article/17/1/128/5892796},
	doi = {10.1093/fpa/oraa015},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Although experts in the United States are often criticized as being “out of touch” for failing to understand the political views of average Americans, arguably no group has been more susceptible to this charge than the media. In this article, we exploit unique paired surveys to measure how accurately US foreign policy media experts assess public opinion compared to other foreign policy experts on the critical issue of American engagement in the world. We find that while experts, on average, substantially underestimate how favorable US citizens are toward international engagement, the media is more inaccurate than other types of experts. We suggest potential reasons for these findings that may serve as the basis for future research. Overall, our study contributes to a growing literature on elite misperceptions of the public and underscores the particular inaccuracies of the media in understanding the attitudes of Americans.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-11-08},
	journal = {Foreign Policy Analysis},
	author = {Gift, Thomas and Monten, Jonathan},
	month = jan,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {128--139},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/6HELVHJ2/Gift and Monten - 2021 - Who's Out of Touch Media Misperception of Public .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{dellmuthEliteCitizenGap2022,
	title = {The {Elite}–{Citizen} {Gap} in {International} {Organization} {Legitimacy}},
	volume = {116},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0003055421000824/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055421000824},
	abstract = {Scholars and policy makers debate whether elites and citizens hold different views of the legitimacy of international organizations (IOs). Until now, sparse data has limited our ability to establish such gaps and to formulate theories for explaining them. This article offers the first systematic comparative analysis of elite and citizen perceptions of the legitimacy of IOs. It examines legitimacy beliefs toward six key IOs, drawing on uniquely coordinated survey evidence from Brazil, Germany, the Philippines, Russia, and the United States. We find a notable elite–citizen gap for all six IOs, four of the five countries, and all of six different elite types. Developing an individual-level approach to legitimacy beliefs, we argue that this gap is driven by systematic differences between elites and citizens in characteristics that matter for attitudes toward IOs. Our findings suggest that deep-seated differences between elites and general publics may present major challenges for democratic and effective international cooperation.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-11-17},
	journal = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Dellmuth, Lisa and Scholte, Jan Aart and Tallberg, Jonas and Verhaegen, Soetkin},
	month = feb,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {283--300},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/JRTVYGEP/Dellmuth et al. - 2022 - The Elite–Citizen Gap in International Organizatio.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{johnsonOrdinaryPatternsExtraordinary2020,
	title = {Ordinary {Patterns} in an {Extraordinary} {Crisis}: {How} {International} {Relations} {Makes} {Sense} of the {COVID}-19 {Pandemic}},
	volume = {74},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {Ordinary {Patterns} in an {Extraordinary} {Crisis}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818320000430/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818320000430},
	abstract = {Abstract
            The customary prescription for handling “problems without passports” is to work through international intergovernmental organizations (IGOs), act collectively for humanity's future, and build up specialized knowledge. But around the world, patterns from the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic defied the prescription. IGOs were blamed, narrow or short-term interests were prioritized, and divided reactions to experts were on display. International Relations (IR) scholarship helps explain why: (1) research on bureaucracy and institutional design examines the challenge of making IGOs accountable to member-states but also insulated from them; (2) research on delegation and socialization explores commonplace problems involving time-inconsistency and credible commitments; and (3) research on epistemic communities and anti-elitism describes the rationale and fears of permitting public policy to be guided by unelected experts. The initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect how the world can look when it lacks resolute leadership to overcome commonplace aversions to IGOs, to broader or longer-term interests, and to experts. Yet while IR scholarship makes sense of these patterns, it does not say enough about why resolute leadership wanes, or what to do about IGO performance when it does. Answers to such questions are crucial not only for recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, but for dealing with whatever global crises lie ahead.},
	language = {en},
	number = {S1},
	urldate = {2022-11-18},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Johnson, Tana},
	month = dec,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {E148--E168},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/AS55XVN3/Johnson - 2020 - Ordinary Patterns in an Extraordinary Crisis How .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{pollockHardIssuesCore1993,
	title = {Hard {Issues}, {Core} {Values} and {Vertical} {Constraint}: {The} {Case} of {Nuclear} {Power}},
	volume = {23},
	issn = {0007-1234, 1469-2112},
	shorttitle = {Hard {Issues}, {Core} {Values} and {Vertical} {Constraint}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0007123400006554/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0007123400006554},
	abstract = {Under what conditions are mass attitudes towards particular issues ‘vertically’ constrained by core cultural values? Vertical constraint is shaped by three related variables: the objective content of the issue, the way the issue is framed by elites and the individual's level of attentiveness to the controversy. Some issues are ‘easy’. They so permeate social discourse that people encounter, often without wanting to, many social agents offering shortcuts for the vertical, values-to-issue link. Most issues, however, are ‘hard’. Arcane in content and bereft of vigorous mediation, hard issues are more difficult for individuals to tie to core values. As the inferential connection between value and issue lengthens, and as social agents become fewer and more remote, an individual's ability to use values to interpret issues will increasingly depend on whether the decision makers, activists and other elites directly involved in the debate can create a connection and, of course, on whether the individual is paying attention. An analysis of the nuclear power controversy, a highly complex technical issue, reveals that a value-based interpretation favoured by elites and promoted by the media is faithfully reflected in how the mass public understands the issue. Furthermore, non-elites who are more attuned to political life are more polarized on the basis of these core values.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-11-21},
	journal = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Pollock, Philip H. and Lilie, Stuart A. and Vittes, M. Elliot},
	month = jan,
	year = {1993},
	pages = {29--50},
}

@article{schwartzAreThereUniversal1994,
	title = {Are {There} {Universal} {Aspects} in the {Structure} and {Contents} of {Human} {Values}?},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {00224537, 15404560},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-4560.1994.tb01196.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1540-4560.1994.tb01196.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-11-21},
	journal = {Journal of Social Issues},
	author = {Schwartz, Shalom H.},
	month = jan,
	year = {1994},
	pages = {19--45},
}

@book{milnerSailingWaterEdge2015,
	address = {Princeton, New Jersey},
	title = {Sailing the water's edge: the domestic politics of {American} foreign policy},
	isbn = {978-0-691-16547-9},
	shorttitle = {Sailing the water's edge},
	abstract = {"When engaging with other countries, the U.S. government has a number of different policy instruments at its disposal, including foreign aid, international trade, and the use of military force. But what determines which policies are chosen? Does the United States rely too much on the use of military power and coercion in its foreign policies? Sailing the Water's Edge focuses on how domestic U.S. politics--in particular the interactions between the president, Congress, interest groups, bureaucratic institutions, and the public--have influenced foreign policy choices since World War II and shows why presidents have more control over some policy instruments than others. Presidential power matters and it varies systematically across policy instruments. Helen Milner and Dustin Tingley consider how Congress and interest groups have substantial material interests in and ideological divisions around certain issues and that these factors constrain presidents from applying specific tools. As a result, presidents select instruments that they have more control over, such as use of the military. This militarization of U.S. foreign policy raises concerns about the nature of American engagement, substitution among policy tools, and the future of U.S. foreign policy. Milner and Tingley explore whether American foreign policy will remain guided by a grand strategy of liberal internationalism, what affects American foreign policy successes and failures, and the role of U.S. intelligence collection in shaping foreign policy. The authors support their arguments with rigorous theorizing, quantitative analysis, and focused case studies, such as U.S. foreign policy in Sub-Saharan Africa across two presidential administrations. Sailing the Water's Edge examines the importance of domestic political coalitions and institutions on the formation of American foreign policy. "--},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Milner, Helen V. and Tingley, Dustin},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {1989-, Foreign relations, United States, POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General, Decision making, 1945-1989, Executive power, Foreign relations Decision making, Military policy Decision making, POLITICAL SCIENCE / Economic Conditions, POLITICAL SCIENCE / Government / General, POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / Diplomacy, POLITICAL SCIENCE / Public Policy / General, Presidents},
}

@article{akandeEconomicSanctionsInternational2021,
	title = {Economic {Sanctions}, {International} {Law}, and {Crimes} {Against} {Humanity}: {Venezuela}'s {ICC} {Referral}},
	volume = {115},
	issn = {0002-9300, 2161-7953},
	shorttitle = {Economic {Sanctions}, {International} {Law}, and {Crimes} {Against} {Humanity}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0002930021000208/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/ajil.2021.20},
	abstract = {Economic sanctions, unilateral and multilateral, have a long pedigree in international relations. From South Africa and Israel, to Iraq, Iran, and North Korea, such measures have, with varying results, been used in diverse contexts to influence the behavior of states. Some would celebrate the use of economic sanctions as a means of punishing “rogue states” for human rights violations or threats to the peace, while others would condemn it as “imperialism” by powerful states against the weak. Leaving aside Chapter VII enforcement action by the UN Security Council, the imposition of unilateral sanctions raises far-reaching questions in respect of the rights and duties of states under international law. A novel issue that has emerged recently is whether, in certain circumstances, such measures could even qualify as crimes against humanity.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-11-30},
	journal = {American Journal of International Law},
	author = {Akande, Dapo and Akhavan, Payam and Bjorge, Eirik},
	month = jul,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {493--512},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/9IDAI8GR/Akande et al. - 2021 - Economic Sanctions, International Law, and Crimes .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{farrellWeaponizedInterdependenceHow2019,
	title = {Weaponized {Interdependence}: {How} {Global} {Economic} {Networks} {Shape} {State} {Coercion}},
	volume = {44},
	issn = {0162-2889, 1531-4804},
	shorttitle = {Weaponized {Interdependence}},
	url = {https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/44/1/42/12237/Weaponized-Interdependence-How-Global-Economic},
	doi = {10.1162/isec_a_00351},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Liberals claim that globalization has led to fragmentation and decentralized networks of power relations. This does not explain how states increasingly “weaponize interdependence” by leveraging global networks of informational and financial exchange for strategic advantage. The theoretical literature on network topography shows how standard models predict that many networks grow asymmetrically so that some nodes are far more connected than others. This model nicely describes several key global economic networks, centering on the United States and a few other states. Highly asymmetric networks allow states with (1) effective jurisdiction over the central economic nodes and (2) appropriate domestic institutions and norms to weaponize these structural advantages for coercive ends. In particular, two mechanisms can be identified. First, states can employ the “panopticon effect” to gather strategically valuable information. Second, they can employ the “chokepoint effect” to deny network access to adversaries. Tests of the plausibility of these arguments across two extended case studies that provide variation both in the extent of U.S. jurisdiction and in the presence of domestic institutions—the SWIFT financial messaging system and the internet—confirm the framework's expectations. A better understanding of the policy implications of the use and potential overuse of these tools, as well as the response strategies of targeted states, will recast scholarly debates on the relationship between economic globalization and state coercion.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-12-13},
	journal = {International Security},
	author = {Farrell, Henry and Newman, Abraham L.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {42--79},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/KTSDE8X5/Farrell and Newman - 2019 - Weaponized Interdependence How Global Economic Ne.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{zvobgo2020race,
	title = {Why race matters in international relations},
	volume = {237},
	journal = {Foreign Policy},
	author = {Zvobgo, Kelebogile and Loken, Meredith},
	year = {2020},
	note = {Publisher: June},
	pages = {11--13},
}

@article{shilliamRaceRacismInternational2020,
	title = {Race and racism in international relations: retrieving a scholarly inheritance},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {2050-2982, 2050-2990},
	shorttitle = {Race and racism in international relations},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41312-020-00084-9},
	doi = {10.1057/s41312-020-00084-9},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2023-01-03},
	journal = {International Politics Reviews},
	author = {Shilliam, Robbie},
	month = dec,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {152--195},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/PSQEAM9S/Shilliam - 2020 - Race and racism in international relations retrie.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{maletCrossNationalSocialInfluence2022,
	title = {Cross-{National} {Social} {Influence}: {How} {Foreign} {Votes} {Can} {Affect} {Domestic} {Public} {Opinion}},
	volume = {55},
	issn = {0010-4140, 1552-3829},
	shorttitle = {Cross-{National} {Social} {Influence}},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00104140221088846},
	doi = {10.1177/00104140221088846},
	abstract = {Do voters follow the preferences of foreign mass collectives? Despite the growing research on policy diffusion and theoretical debates on the emergence of transnational public spheres, we know little about the impact of foreign votes on domestic public opinion. Yet, the results of elections and referendums may provide a signal to people in other countries and trigger a process of contagion. This study leverages the coincidence of the 2005 French referendum on the European Constitution and the fieldwork of two surveys to analyze the causal effect of cross-national social influence. Results show that the French rejection increased public opposition to the Constitution abroad. A process of cognitive activation explains why knowledgeable voters also grew Eurosceptic after the vote. These findings attest to the interdependence of national publics and contribute to our understanding of mechanisms of social contagion.},
	language = {en},
	number = {14},
	urldate = {2023-01-04},
	journal = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Malet, Giorgio},
	month = dec,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {2416--2446},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/KZAZSDCP/Malet - 2022 - Cross-National Social Influence How Foreign Votes.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{warrenPanelConditioningLongitudinal2012,
	title = {Panel {Conditioning} in {Longitudinal} {Social} {Science} {Surveys}},
	volume = {41},
	issn = {0049-1241, 1552-8294},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0049124112460374},
	doi = {10.1177/0049124112460374},
	abstract = {Social scientists usually assume that the attitudes, behaviors, and statuses of respondents to longitudinal surveys are not altered by the act of measuring them. If this assumption is false—or even if the quality of survey participants’ responses change because of measurement—then social scientists risk mischaracterizing the existence, magnitude, and correlates of changes across survey waves in respondents’ characteristics. In this article, we make the case that social scientists ought to worry more about panel conditioning biases. We also describe and demonstrate empirical strategies for estimating the magnitude of such biases in longitudinal surveys, and we provide illustrative empirical results that are germane to social science research. We end by outlining a research agenda that would generate specific information about the nature and degree of panel conditioning in specific longitudinal surveys as well as a broader understanding of the circumstances in which panel conditioning is most likely to occur.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2023-01-04},
	journal = {Sociological Methods \& Research},
	author = {Warren, John Robert and Halpern-Manners, Andrew},
	month = nov,
	year = {2012},
	pages = {491--534},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/6YCM34ZS/Warren and Halpern-Manners - 2012 - Panel Conditioning in Longitudinal Social Science .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{dasNonparametricTestsPanel2011,
	title = {Nonparametric {Tests} of {Panel} {Conditioning} and {Attrition} {Bias} in {Panel} {Surveys}},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {0049-1241, 1552-8294},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0049124110390765},
	doi = {10.1177/0049124110390765},
	abstract = {Over the past decades there has been an increasing use of panel surveys at the household or individual level. Panel data have important advantages compared to independent cross sections, but also two potential drawbacks: attrition bias and panel conditioning effects. Attrition bias arises if dropping out of the panel is correlated with a variable of interest. Panel conditioning arises if responses are influenced by participation in the previous wave(s); the experience of the previous interview(s) may affect the answers to questions on the same topic, such that these answers differ systematically from those of respondents interviewed for the first time. In this study the authors discuss how to disentangle attrition and panel conditioning effects and develop tests for panel conditioning allowing for nonrandom attrition. First, the authors consider a nonparametric approach with assumptions on the sample design only, leading to interval identification of the measures for the attrition and panel conditioning effects. Second, the authors introduce additional assumptions concerning the attrition process, which lead to point estimates and standard errors for both the attrition bias and the panel conditioning effect. The authors illustrate their method on a variety of repeated questions in two household panels. The authors find significant panel conditioning effects in knowledge questions, but not in other types of questions. The examples show that the bounds can be informative if the attrition rate is not too high. In most but not all of the examples, point estimates of the panel conditioning effect are similar for different additional assumptions on the attrition process.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2023-01-04},
	journal = {Sociological Methods \& Research},
	author = {Das, Marcel and Toepoel, Vera and van Soest, Arthur},
	month = feb,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {32--56},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/KCTBDHWK/Das et al. - 2011 - Nonparametric Tests of Panel Conditioning and Attr.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{caplanDevisingExitStrategies2012,
	title = {Devising {Exit} {Strategies}},
	volume = {54},
	issn = {0039-6338, 1468-2699},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2012.690987},
	doi = {10.1080/00396338.2012.690987},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2023-01-24},
	journal = {Survival},
	author = {Caplan, Richard},
	month = jun,
	year = {2012},
	pages = {111--126},
}

@article{dorussenEndingEconomicSanctions2001,
	title = {Ending {Economic} {Sanctions}: {Audience} {Costs} and {Rent}-{Seeking} as {Commitment} {Strategies}},
	volume = {45},
	issn = {0022-0027, 1552-8766},
	shorttitle = {Ending {Economic} {Sanctions}},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002701045004001},
	doi = {10.1177/0022002701045004001},
	abstract = {Little attention has been paid to how and when economic sanctions end, especially compared with the amount of research on their effectiveness. A game in which the ending of sanctions is part of interstate bargaining about a contested policy is analyzed. In case of audience costs, sanctions may occur because governments use strategies that commit them to their ideal policy position. Governments use as constraints domestic political groups that have an interest in the disputed policy. Alternatively, rent-seeking enables governments to obtain political gain from the opportunities for side payments provided by sanctions. Results show that commitment strategies help states improve their bargaining position and make the resolution of the conflict more difficult. Data on the duration and ending of sanctions initiated in the period between 1914 and 1990 are used to test these hypotheses. The analyses provide clear evidence that commitment strategies affect the duration of sanctions.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2023-01-24},
	journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Dorussen, Han and Mo, Jongryn},
	month = aug,
	year = {2001},
	pages = {395--426},
}

@article{tomzDomesticAudienceCosts2007,
	title = {Domestic {Audience} {Costs} in {International} {Relations}: {An} {Experimental} {Approach}},
	volume = {61},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {Domestic {Audience} {Costs} in {International} {Relations}},
	url = {http://www.journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0020818307070282},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818307070282},
	language = {en},
	number = {04},
	urldate = {2023-01-25},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Tomz, Michael R.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2007},
}

@article{levenduskyWhenBackingRight2012,
	title = {When {Backing} {Down} {Is} the {Right} {Decision}: {Partisanship}, {New} {Information}, and {Audience} {Costs}},
	volume = {74},
	issn = {0022-3816, 1468-2508},
	shorttitle = {When {Backing} {Down} {Is} the {Right} {Decision}},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1017/S002238161100154X},
	doi = {10.1017/S002238161100154X},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2023-01-26},
	journal = {The Journal of Politics},
	author = {Levendusky, Matthew S. and Horowitz, Michael C.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2012},
	pages = {323--338},
}

@article{ashfordStrategiesRestraintRemaking2021,
	title = {Strategies of {Restraint}: {Remaking} {America}'s {Broken} {Foreign} {Policy}},
	volume = {100},
	copyright = {COPYRIGHT 2021 Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.},
	issn = {0015-7120},
	language = {eng},
	number = {5},
	journal = {Foreign Affairs},
	author = {Ashford, Emma},
	year = {2021},
	note = {Publisher: Council on Foreign Relations, Inc},
	keywords = {Political aspects, Diplomacy, Intervention (International law), Evaluation, Foreign policy, Military intervention, United States foreign relations},
	pages = {128--141},
}

@book{brutgerAbstractionSurveyExperiments2022a,
	address = {New York},
	title = {Abstraction in survey experiments: testing the tradeoffs},
	isbn = {978-1-108-99953-3},
	shorttitle = {Abstraction in survey experiments},
	abstract = {"Experimentalists in political science often face a question about how abstract or concrete their experimental stimuli ought to be. Should they use real country (or candidate) names and include rich detail that greatly expands the length of their vignettes, or should they avoid the use of real names and embed their treatments in stark, abstract vignettes that highlight only the most necessary components of the experiment? Should they introduce their scenarios by describing them as hypothetical, or perhaps use deception and describe them as "real?" What, if any, are the consequences to these choices and should experimentalists weigh their options differently depending on what their goals are in a given study?"--},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Brutger, Ryan and Kertzer, Joshua D. and Weiss, Chagai Meir and Renshon, Jonathan},
	year = {2022},
	keywords = {Methodology, Research, Political science, Experiments},
}

@incollection{dunningChallengesOpportunities2019,
	edition = {1},
	title = {Challenges and {Opportunities}},
	isbn = {978-1-108-38139-0 978-1-108-42228-4 978-1-108-43504-8},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/9781108381390%23c13/type/book_part},
	urldate = {2023-02-08},
	booktitle = {Information, {Accountability}, and {Cumulative} {Learning}},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	editor = {Dunning, Thad and Grossman, Guy and Humphreys, Macartan and Hyde, Susan D. and McIntosh, Craig and Nellis, Gareth},
	month = jul,
	year = {2019},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108381390.014},
	pages = {403--416},
}

@article{lin-greenbergSoldiersPollstersInternational2021a,
	title = {Soldiers, {Pollsters}, and {International} {Crises}: {Public} {Opinion} and the {Military}'s {Advice} on the {Use} of {Force}},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {1743-8586, 1743-8594},
	shorttitle = {Soldiers, {Pollsters}, and {International} {Crises}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/fpa/article/doi/10.1093/fpa/orab009/6218083},
	doi = {10.1093/fpa/orab009},
	abstract = {Abstract
            When advising civilian leaders on the use of force, are nonelected officials swayed by public opinion? Scholars have long debated whether public preferences affect foreign policy, but most studies focus on elected politicians, overlooking the nonelected officials who formulate policies and advise leaders. Bureaucrats and nonelected officials are expected to provide advice based on technical expertise, yet they may have institutional incentives and civic-minded reasons to recommend actions that align with popular preferences. This potentially creates additional channels through which public opinion influences policy decisions. An original survey experiment fielded on US military officers reveals that public opposition makes military leaders less likely to recommend the use of force. This article contributes to debates on the role of public opinion in foreign policymaking, integrates research on public opinion and civil–military relations, and yields broader insights for scholars studying the behavior of officials who are not subject to electoral incentives.
            Al asesorar a los dirigentes civiles sobre el uso de la fuerza, los funcionarios no electos ¿se dejan influir por la opinión pública? Los estudiosos llevan mucho tiempo debatiendo si las preferencias del público afectan a la política exterior, pero la mayoría de los trabajos se centran en los políticos electos, pasando por alto a los funcionarios no electos que formulan las políticas y asesoran a los líderes. Se espera que los burócratas y los funcionarios no electos ofrezcan un asesoramiento basado en la experiencia técnica, pero que puedan tener incentivos institucionales y razones de carácter cívico para recomendar acciones que se alineen con las preferencias populares. Potencialmente, esto crea canales adicionales a través de los cuales la opinión pública influye en las decisiones políticas. Una original encuesta realizada a oficiales militares estadounidenses revela que la oposición pública hace que los líderes militares sean menos propensos a recomendar el uso de la fuerza. Este trabajo contribuye a los debates sobre el papel de la opinión pública en la construcción de la política exterior, integra la investigación sobre la opinión pública y las relaciones cívico–militares, y aporta una visión más amplia para los estudiosos que evalúan el comportamiento de los funcionarios que no son objeto de incentivos electorales.
            Les officiels non élus sont-ils influencés par l'opinion publique lorsqu'ils conseillent des dirigeants civils sur le recours à la force? Des chercheurs ont longuement débattu pour déterminer si les préférences publiques affectaient la politique étrangère, mais la plupart des études se concentrent sur les politiciens élus en négligeant les officiels non élus qui formulent les politiques et conseillent les dirigeants. Les bureaucrates et officiels non élus sont supposés prodiguer des conseils reposant sur une expertise technique, mais ils peuvent toutefois avoir des motivations institutionnelles et des raisons d'ordre civique de recommander des mesures alignées sur les préférences populaires. Cela crée potentiellement des canaux supplémentaires par lesquels l'opinion publique influence les décisions politiques. Une expérience d'enquête originale menée sur des officiers de l'Armée américaine révèle que l'opposition publique rend les dirigeants militaires moins susceptibles de recommander le recours à la force. Cet article contribue aux débats sur le rôle de l'opinion publique dans l’élaboration de la politique étrangère en y intégrant des recherches sur l'opinion publique et sur les relations entre civils et militaires et en apportant des renseignements plus larges aux chercheurs qui étudient le comportement des officiels qui ne sont pas sujets à des motivations électorales.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2023-02-08},
	journal = {Foreign Policy Analysis},
	author = {Lin-Greenberg, Erik},
	year = {2021},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/E28NJ7CN/Lin-Greenberg - 2021 - Soldiers, Pollsters, and International Crises Pub.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{druckmanLearningMorePolitical2012,
	title = {Learning {More} from {Political} {Communication} {Experiments}: {Pretreatment} and {Its} {Effects}},
	volume = {56},
	issn = {00925853},
	shorttitle = {Learning {More} from {Political} {Communication} {Experiments}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00582.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00582.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2023-02-09},
	journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Druckman, James N. and Leeper, Thomas J.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2012},
	pages = {875--896},
}

@article{gainesLogicSurveyExperiment2007,
	title = {The {Logic} of the {Survey} {Experiment} {Reexamined}},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1047198700006343/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1093/pan/mpl008},
	abstract = {Scholars of political behavior increasingly embed experimental designs in opinion surveys by randomly assigning respondents alternative versions of questionnaire items. Such experiments have major advantages: they are simple to implement and they dodge some of the difficulties of making inferences from conventional survey data. But survey experiments are no panacea. We identify problems of inference associated with typical uses of survey experiments in political science and highlight a range of difficulties, some of which have straightforward solutions within the survey-experimental approach and some of which can be dealt with only by exercising greater caution in interpreting findings and bringing to bear alternative strategies of research.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2023-02-09},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Gaines, Brian J. and Kuklinski, James H. and Quirk, Paul J.},
	year = {2007},
	pages = {1--20},
}

@misc{smeltzGrowingUSDivide2022a,
	title = {Growing {US} {Divide} on {How} {Long} to {Support} {Ukraine}},
	url = {https://web.archive.org/web/20240510203548/https://globalaffairs.org/sites/default/files/2023-01/Ukraine%20Brief%20CMS%202.pdf},
	publisher = {Chicago Council on Global Affairs},
	author = {Smeltz, Dina and Kafura, Craig and Sullivan, Emily},
	month = dec,
	year = {2022},
}

@article{dietrichHowMakeElite2021,
	title = {How to make elite experiments work in {International} {Relations}},
	volume = {27},
	issn = {1354-0661, 1460-3713},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1354066120987891},
	doi = {10.1177/1354066120987891},
	abstract = {For decades, many International Relations (IR) scholars did not engage in elite experiments, because they viewed it as too risky, too costly, or too difficult to implement. However, as part of a behavioral turn in IR, a growing number of scholars have begun to adopt the method in their own research. This shift raises important questions. Under what conditions do elite experiments add value to IR scholarship? How can scholars overcome the logistical and ethical challenges of sampling such an elusive group? This article makes an original conceptual contribution to methodological debates on the role of behavioral approaches by analyzing experiments on foreign policy elites. We analyze the method’s strengths and weaknesses, evaluate ethical considerations, and present what is—to the best of our knowledge—the most comprehensive set of implementation guidelines. Our article draws on recently published IR research and argues that the payoffs from elite experiments are well worth the effort.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2023-02-13},
	journal = {European Journal of International Relations},
	author = {Dietrich, Simone and Hardt, Heidi and Swedlund, Haley J.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {596--621},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/BFGLUAXL/Dietrich et al. - 2021 - How to make elite experiments work in Internationa.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{hafner-burtonCognitiveRevolutionPolitical2013,
	title = {The {Cognitive} {Revolution} and the {Political} {Psychology} of {Elite} {Decision} {Making}},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1537-5927, 1541-0986},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1537592713001084/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592713001084},
	abstract = {Experimental evidence in cognitive psychology and behavioral economics is transforming the way political science scholars think about how humans make decisions in areas of high complexity, uncertainty, and risk. Nearly all those studies utilize convenience samples of university students, but in the real world political elites actually make most pivotal political decisions such as threatening war or changing the course of economic policy. Highly experienced elites are more likely to exhibit the attributes of rational decision-making; and over the last fifteen years a wealth of studies suggest that such elites are likely to be more skilled in strategic bargaining than samples with less germane experience. However, elites are also more likely to suffer overconfidence, which degrades decision-making skills. We illustrate implications for political science with a case study of crisis bargaining between the US and North Korea. Variations in the experience of US elite decision-makers between 2002 and 2006 plausibly explain the large shift in US crisis signaling better than other rival hypotheses such as “Iraq fatigue.” Beyond crisis bargaining other major political science theories might benefit from attention to the attributes of individual decision-makers.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2023-02-13},
	journal = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. and Hughes, D. Alex and Victor, David G.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {368--386},
}

@article{broockmanBiasPerceptionsPublic2018,
	title = {Bias in {Perceptions} of {Public} {Opinion} among {Political} {Elites}},
	volume = {112},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0003055418000011/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055418000011},
	abstract = {The conservative asymmetry of elite polarization represents a significant puzzle. We argue that politicians can maintain systematic misperceptions of constituency opinion that may contribute to breakdowns in dyadic representation. We demonstrate this argument with original surveys of 3,765 politicians’ perceptions of constituency opinion on nine issues. In 2012 and 2014, state legislative politicians from both parties dramatically overestimated their constituents’ support for conservative policies on these issues, a pattern consistent across methods, districts, and states. Republicans drive much of this overestimation. Exploiting responses from politicians in the same district, we confirm these partisan differences within individual districts. Further evidence suggests that this overestimation may arise due to biases in who contacts politicians, as in recent years Republican citizens have been especially likely to contact legislators, especially fellow Republicans. Our findings suggest that a novel force can operate in elections and in legislatures: Politicians can systematically misperceive what their constituents want.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2023-02-21},
	journal = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Broockman, David E. and Skovron, Christopher},
	month = aug,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {542--563},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/7S885C4A/Broockman and Skovron - 2018 - Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion among Politi.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{butlerCanLearningConstituency2011a,
	title = {Can {Learning} {Constituency} {Opinion} {Affect} {How} {Legislators} {Vote}? {Results} from a {Field} {Experiment}},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {15540634},
	shorttitle = {Can {Learning} {Constituency} {Opinion} {Affect} {How} {Legislators} {Vote}?},
	url = {http://www.nowpublishers.com/article/Details/QJPS-11019},
	doi = {10.1561/100.00011019},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2023-03-06},
	journal = {Quarterly Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Butler, Daniel M. and Nickerson, David W.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {55--83},
}

@article{gomilaLogisticLinearEstimating2021,
	title = {Logistic or linear? {Estimating} causal effects of experimental treatments on binary outcomes using regression analysis.},
	volume = {150},
	issn = {1939-2222, 0096-3445},
	shorttitle = {Logistic or linear?},
	url = {http://doi.apa.org/getdoi.cfm?doi=10.1037/xge0000920},
	doi = {10.1037/xge0000920},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2023-03-06},
	journal = {Journal of Experimental Psychology: General},
	author = {Gomila, Robin},
	month = apr,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {700--709},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/T4NVFWHN/Gomila - 2021 - Logistic or linear Estimating causal effects of e.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{imaiRobustnessEmpiricalEvidence2021a,
	title = {Robustness of {Empirical} {Evidence} for the {Democratic} {Peace}: {A} {Nonparametric} {Sensitivity} {Analysis}},
	volume = {75},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {Robustness of {Empirical} {Evidence} for the {Democratic} {Peace}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818321000126/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818321000126},
	abstract = {Abstract
            The democratic peace—the idea that democracies rarely fight one another—has been called “the closest thing we have to an empirical law in the study of international relations.” Yet, some contend that this relationship is spurious and suggest alternative explanations. Unfortunately, in the absence of randomized experiments, we can never rule out the possible existence of such confounding biases. Rather than commonly used regression-based approaches, we apply a nonparametric sensitivity analysis. We show that overturning the negative association between democracy and conflict would require a confounder that is forty-seven times more prevalent in democratic dyads than in other dyads. To put this number in context, the relationship between democracy and peace is at least five times as robust as that between smoking and lung cancer. To explain away the democratic peace, therefore, scholars would have to find far more powerful confounders than those already identified in the literature.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2023-03-08},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Lo, James},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {901--919},
}

@article{leeEvaluatingEffectsTrade2018,
	title = {Evaluating the {Effects} of {Trade} on {Militarized} {Behavior} in the {Context} of {Territorial} {Threat}},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {1743-8586, 1743-8594},
	url = {http://academic.oup.com/fpa/article/14/1/44/2625527},
	doi = {10.1093/fpa/orw009},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2023-03-08},
	journal = {Foreign Policy Analysis},
	author = {Lee, Hoon and Rider, Toby J.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {44--63},
}

@article{portelaEvolutionDatabasesAge2022,
	title = {The {Evolution} of {Databases} in the {Age} of {Targeted} {Sanctions}},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1521-9488, 1468-2486},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/doi/10.1093/isr/viac061/6987069},
	doi = {10.1093/isr/viac061},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Databases constitute key research tools in sanctions scholarship. Over the past few years, we have witnessed a proliferation of sanctions databases: while only a single dataset was available until 2009, this number had increased to five by 2020; thus, the choice has more than doubled in less than a decade. This essay assesses the evolution observed. It reviews the five major datasets, comparing some of their basic choices, and evaluates them along two dimensions: the extent to which they capture targeted sanctions and the degree to which they brought innovations to the subfield. We find that targeted sanctions are not adequately reflected in databases, which remain state-centric in their approach. We conclude that the crafting of new databases does not entail an incremental refinement in which each iteration renders its predecessors obsolete. Rather, the evolution observed has resulted in a diverse set of options with different emphases. We nevertheless observe that a trend toward innovation has yielded to one toward consolidation, more focused on enlarging the empirical testing ground than in innovating. We conclude by discussing implications for the development of sanctions scholarship.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2023-03-19},
	journal = {International Studies Review},
	author = {Portela, Clara and Charron, Andrea},
	year = {2022},
	pages = {viac061},
}

@article{dreznerSanctionsSometimesSmart2011,
	title = {Sanctions {Sometimes} {Smart}: {Targeted} {Sanctions} in {Theory} and {Practice}},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {15219488},
	shorttitle = {Sanctions {Sometimes} {Smart}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isr/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/j.1468-2486.2010.01001.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1468-2486.2010.01001.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2023-03-19},
	journal = {International Studies Review},
	author = {Drezner, Daniel W.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {96--108},
}

@article{gelmanDifferenceSignificantNot2006,
	title = {The {Difference} {Between} “{Significant}” and “{Not} {Significant}” is not {Itself} {Statistically} {Significant}},
	volume = {60},
	issn = {0003-1305, 1537-2731},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/000313006X152649},
	doi = {10.1198/000313006X152649},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2023-03-27},
	journal = {The American Statistician},
	author = {Gelman, Andrew and Stern, Hal},
	month = nov,
	year = {2006},
	pages = {328--331},
}

@article{mcshaneAbandonStatisticalSignificance2019,
	title = {Abandon {Statistical} {Significance}},
	volume = {73},
	issn = {0003-1305, 1537-2731},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00031305.2018.1527253},
	doi = {10.1080/00031305.2018.1527253},
	language = {en},
	number = {sup1},
	urldate = {2023-03-27},
	journal = {The American Statistician},
	author = {McShane, Blakeley B. and Gal, David and Gelman, Andrew and Robert, Christian and Tackett, Jennifer L.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {235--245},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/BV4E8DMF/McShane et al. - 2019 - Abandon Statistical Significance.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@misc{cunninghamMatchingVsRegression2023,
	title = {Matching vs. {Regression}: {In} {Defense} of the {ATT}},
	url = {https://causalinf.substack.com/p/act-i-matching-vs-regression-in-defense},
	author = {Cunningham, Scott},
	month = apr,
	year = {2023},
}

@article{earlyDoesMiseryLove2022,
	title = {Does {Misery} {Love} {Company}? {Analyzing} the {Global} {Suffering} {Inflicted} by {US} {Economic} {Sanctions}},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {2634-3797},
	shorttitle = {Does {Misery} {Love} {Company}?},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isagsq/article/doi/10.1093/isagsq/ksac013/6561777},
	doi = {10.1093/isagsq/ksac013},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Economic sanctions are coercive policies capable of inflicting social, political, and humanitarian suffering that go far beyond their economic effects alone. The United States employs economic sanctions more than any other government in the world. In this study, we analyze how US sanctions policies can inflict misery upon the states they target. Our contributions to the literature are two-fold. First, we introduce a new, consolidated measure called the Freedom from Misery index to capture the disparate, adverse effects of sanctions on socioeconomic and political conditions within target states. Second, we offer the first empirical analysis of the extent to which sanctions imposed by the United States increase the misery gap between the United States and targets of US sanctions. We theorize that high-cost sanctions and, counterintuitively, human rights sanctions will inflict significant amounts of misery on the states they target. Using data from 1971 to 2015 for over 145 countries, we conduct quantitative analyses to evaluate the degree that US sanctions, including those involving the United Nations, contribute to miserable living conditions in their targets. We find that US sanctions, particularly those inflicting major costs on targeted economies and those imposed for human rights reasons, immiserate their targets’ populations. Extensions of our main analysis further show that US sanctions widen the misery gap between the United States and target states, contributing to greater international inequality.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2023-04-07},
	journal = {Global Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Early, Bryan R. and Peksen, Dursun},
	month = mar,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {ksac013},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/3PBTJHRD/Early and Peksen - 2022 - Does Misery Love Company Analyzing the Global Suf.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{caplanExitStrategiesState2012,
	title = {Exit {Strategies} and {State} {Building}},
	isbn = {978-0-19-976011-4},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/book/2242},
	urldate = {2023-06-08},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	editor = {Caplan, Richard},
	month = sep,
	year = {2012},
	doi = {10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199760114.001.0001},
	doi = {10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199760114.001.0001},
}

@incollection{millerSunkCostsPolitical2019,
	title = {Sunk {Costs} and {Political} {Decision} {Making}},
	isbn = {978-0-19-022863-7},
	url = {https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-1022},
	abstract = {The “sunk costs fallacy” is a popular import into political science from organizational psychology and behavioral economics. The fallacy is classically defined as a situation in which decision-makers escalate commitment to an apparently failing project in order to “recoup” the costs they have already sunk into it. The phenomenon is often framed as a good example of how real decision-making departs from the assumption of forward-looking rationality which underpins traditional approaches to understanding politics. Researchers have proposed a number of different psychological drivers for the fallacy, such as cognitive dissonance reduction, and there is experimental and observational evidence that it accurately characterizes decision-making in certain contexts. However, there is significant skepticism about the fallacy in many social sciences, with critics arguing that there are better forward-looking rational explanations for decisions apparently driven by a desire to recoup sunk costs – among them reputational concerns, option values and agency problems. Critics have also noted that in practical situations sunk costs are informative both about decision makers’ intrinsic valuation for the issue and the prospects for success, making it hard to discern a separate role for sunk costs empirically. To address these concerns, empirical researchers have employed a number of strategies, especially leveraging natural experiments in certain non-political decision making contexts such as sports or business, in order to isolate the effects of sunk costs per se from other considerations. In doing so, they have found mixed support for the fallacy. Research has also shown that the prevalence of the sunk costs fallacy may be moderated by a number of factors, including the locus of decision-making, framing, and national context. These provide the basis for suggestions for future research.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2023-06-09},
	booktitle = {Oxford {Research} {Encyclopedia} of {Politics}},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Miller, Charles A.},
	collaborator = {Miller, Charles A.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2019},
	doi = {10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.1022},
}

@book{giumelliCoercingConstrainingSignalling2011,
	address = {Colchester},
	title = {Coercing, constraining and signalling: explaining {UN} and {EU} sanctions after the {Cold} {War}},
	isbn = {978-1-907301-20-9},
	shorttitle = {Coercing, constraining and signalling},
	publisher = {ECPR Press},
	author = {Giumelli, Francesco},
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {World politics, 1989-, United Nations, Economic sanctions, Sanctions, Sanctions (International law), European},
}

@book{brockmeierAkteneinsichtenDeutscheAussenpolitik2021,
	address = {Berlin},
	title = {Akteneinsichten: {Die} deutsche {Außenpolitik} und der {Völkermord} in {Ruanda}},
	shorttitle = {Akteneinsichten},
	url = {https://www.boell.de/de/2021/03/29/akteneinsichten-die-deutsche-aussenpolitik-und-der-voelkermord-in-ruanda},
	abstract = {Mit etwa 800.000 Toten in einhundert Tagen war der Völkermord in Ruanda eine weltpolitische Zäsur, die grundsätzliche Fragen zur internationalen Verantwortung bei Genozid aufwarf und die Handlungsfähigkeit sowohl der Vereinten Nationen (VN) als auch einzelner Mitgliedsstaaten bei Völkermord und Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit grundlegend in Zweifel zog. Viele Fragen zur deutschen Außenpolitik vor und während des Völkermords sind bis heute offen. Das vorliegende Papier zeigt, dass deutsche Diplomat/innen 1993 und 1994 besser über die Lage vor Ort unterrichtet waren als bisher bekannt. Allerdings unterschätzten sie vor dem Völkermord die ethnische Dimension des Konflikts sowie den Organisationsgrad der Gewalt gegen Tutsi und übersahen wichtige Warnzeichen wie die Aktivitäten ruandischer Hetzmedien.Zwar debattierte die Bundesregierung, ihre Entwicklungszusammenarbeit mit Ruanda anzupassen und eine Bundeswehrberatergruppe, die seit 1978 im Land war, im Laufe des Jahres 1993 abzuziehen – doch fehlte es an ganz grundsätzlicher Koordinierung zwischen den relevanten Ministerien sowie einer Anpassung der deutschen außenpolitischen Strategie in Ruanda. Eine frühzeitige Reaktion auf die sich verschlechternde Lage durch die deutsche Außenpolitik blieb dementsprechend aus: Trotz der Selbsteinschätzung Deutschlands, in Ruanda und der Region als ein besonders glaubwürdiger Akteur auf allen Seiten zu gelten, unternahm die damalige Bundesregierung nicht einmal den Versuch, bei den Friedensverhandlungen eine stärkere Rolle zu spielen oder eigene politische Initiativen anzustoßen. Bereits im Sommer und Herbst 1993, im Jahr vor dem Völkermord, baten die Vereinten Nationen, die ruandischen Bürgerkriegsparteien und internationale Partner die Bundesregierung wiederholt um Soldaten und Ausstattung für die VN-Friedensmission in Ruanda. Obwohl das Auswärtige Amt einen solchen Beitrag befürwortete, lehnte die Bundesregierung eine Beteiligung auf Grund von Bedenken im Verteidigungsministerium ab. Auch eine Entsendung von Sanitätssoldaten zur VN-Mission in Ruanda während des Völkermords scheiterte an der Ablehnung des Verteidigungsministeriums.Ein Vierteljahrhundert nach dem Völkermord hat das Politische Archiv des Auswärtigen Amtes erstmals den Zugang zu einer Auswahl an relevanten Akten ermöglicht, die vorwiegend das Jahr 1993 und die Monate ab April 1994 abdecken. Auf Grundlage einer Analyse dieser Dokumente sowie ergänzenden Interviews fasst das vorliegende Papier neue Erkenntnisse zur deutschen Außenpolitik vor und während des Völkermords in drei Themenbereichen zusammen, die es auch heute in der deutschen Außenpolitik noch deutlich stärker zu diskutieren gilt: (1) Früherkennung und politische Analyse für die Krisenprävention («Early Warning»), (2) Koordinierung zwischen einschlägigen Ressorts und Strategiefähigkeit der Bundesregierung in der Krisenprävention und Friedensförderung, (3) die Bedingungen für eine rechtzeitige Reaktion auf Warnzeichen («Early Action»).Brockmeier, Sarah \&amp; Peez, Anton (2021): Akteneinsichten: Die deutsche Außenpolitik und der Völkermord in Ruanda. Berlin: Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. Online unter: https://www.boell.de/sites/default/files/2021-03/Deutsche\_Außenpolitik\_und\_der\_Voelkermord\_in\_Ruanda.pdf.},
	urldate = {2021-04-14},
	publisher = {Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung},
	author = {Brockmeier, Sarah and Peez, Anton},
	month = mar,
	year = {2021},
}

@article{gutmannPrecisionguidedBluntEffects2020,
	title = {Precision-guided or blunt? {The} effects of {US} economic sanctions on human rights},
	volume = {185},
	issn = {0048-5829, 1573-7101},
	shorttitle = {Precision-guided or blunt?},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11127-019-00746-9},
	doi = {10.1007/s11127-019-00746-9},
	language = {en},
	number = {1-2},
	urldate = {2021-10-24},
	journal = {Public Choice},
	author = {Gutmann, Jerg and Neuenkirch, Matthias and Neumeier, Florian},
	month = oct,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {161--182},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/THYW5979/Gutmann et al. - 2020 - Precision-guided or blunt The effects of US econo.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{dorussen2001ending,
	title = {Ending economic sanctions: {Audience} costs and rent-seeking as commitment strategies},
	volume = {45},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Dorussen, Han and Mo, Jongryn},
	year = {2001},
	note = {Publisher: Sage Publications, Inc. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, CA 91320},
	pages = {395--426},
}

@article{coppedgeVDemMethodologyV112021,
	title = {V-{Dem} {Methodology} (v11.1 – {March} 2021)},
	issn = {1556-5068},
	url = {https://www.v-dem.net/static/website/img/refs/methodologyv111.pdf},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3802748},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-12-21},
	journal = {V-Dem Working Paper},
	author = {Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Knutsen, Carl Henrik and Lindberg, Staffan I. and Teorell, Jan and Marquardt, Kyle M. and Medzihorsky, Juraj and Pemstein, Daniel and Alizada, Nazifa and Gastaldi, Lisa and Hindle, Garry and Pernes, Josefine and von Römer, Johannes and Tzelgov, Eitan and Wilson, Steven},
	year = {2021},
}

@article{fearon1994domestic,
	title = {Domestic political audiences and the escalation of international disputes},
	volume = {88},
	number = {3},
	journal = {American political science review},
	author = {Fearon, James D},
	year = {1994},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	pages = {577--592},
}

@article{mattes2022reacting,
	title = {Reacting to the olive branch: {Hawks}, doves, and public support for cooperation},
	volume = {76},
	number = {4},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Mattes, Michaela and Weeks, Jessica LP},
	year = {2022},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	pages = {957--976},
}

@incollection{cilizogluResearchingModernEconomic2021,
	title = {Researching {Modern} {Economic} {Sanctions}},
	isbn = {978-0-19-084662-6},
	url = {https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-599},
	abstract = {Economic sanctions are an integral part of states’ foreign policy repertoire. Increasingly, major powers and international organizations rely on sanctions to address an incredibly diverse array of issues—from fighting corruption to the prevention of nuclear weapons. How policy makers employ economic sanctions evolved over time, especially over the past two decades. The recognition of the adverse humanitarian impact of economic sanctions in the late 1990s and the “War on Terrorism” following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks have led to major changes in the design and enforcement patterns of economic sanctions. Academics’ understanding of how these coercive tools work, when they are utilized, what consequences they create, and when they succeed are still heavily shaped by research findings based on observations from the latter half of the 20th century. Insights based on past sanctions episodes may not fully apply to how sanctions policies are being currently used. In the latter half of the 20th century, the majority of sanctions cases were initiated by the United States, targeted governments, and involved restrictions on international trade. In the last two decades, however, additional actors, such as the European Union, the United Nations, and China, have emerged as major senders. Modern sanctions now most commonly involve targeted and financial sanctions and are imposed against individuals, organizations, and firms. The changing nature of the senders, targets, stakeholders, and economic tools associated with sanctions policies have important implications for their enforcement, effectiveness, and consequences. The legal-regulatory and bureaucratic infrastructure needed to implement and enforce modern economic sanctions has also become far more robust. This evolution of modern sanctions has provided the scholarly community with plenty of opportunities to explore new questions about economic coercion and revisit old ones. The research agenda on economic sanctions must evolve to remain relevant in understanding why and how modern sanctions are used and what their consequences are.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-08-31},
	booktitle = {Oxford {Research} {Encyclopedia} of {International} {Studies}},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Cilizoglu, Menevis and Early, Bryan R.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2021},
	doi = {10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.013.599},
}

@misc{smeltzFewSignsUkraine2022,
	title = {Few {Signs} of “{Ukraine} {Fatigue}” {Among} {American} {Public}},
	url = {https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/2022-08/Final%20Ukraine%20Brief%20-%202022%20CCS.pdf},
	publisher = {Chicago Council on Global Affairs},
	author = {Smeltz, Dina and Sullivan, Emily},
	month = aug,
	year = {2022},
}

@misc{smeltzGrowingUSDivide2022,
	title = {Growing {US} {Divide} on {How} {Long} to {Support} {Ukraine}},
	url = {https://globalaffairs.org/sites/default/files/2023-01/Ukraine%20Brief%20CMS%202.pdf},
	publisher = {Chicago Council on Global Affairs},
	author = {Smeltz, Dina and Kafura, Craig and Sullivan, Emily},
	month = dec,
	year = {2022},
}

@techreport{bassan-nygateGeneralizabilityIRExperiments2023,
	type = {Preprint},
	title = {The {Generalizability} of {IR} {Experiments} {Beyond} the {U}.{S}.},
	url = {https://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/article-details/6467f4bcfb40f6b3eedcabbb},
	abstract = {Theories of international relations (IR) typically make predictions intended to hold across many countries. Nonetheless, existing experimental evidence testing the micro-foundations of IR theories relies overwhelmingly on studies fielded in the U.S. We argue that the nature of what constitutes a theory of IR makes it particularly important to know whether theories hold across countries. To examine the generalizability of IR experimental findings beyond the U.S., we implemented a pre-registered and harmonized multi-site replication study, fielding four prominent IR experiments in seven countries: Brazil, Germany, India, Israel, Japan, Nigeria, and the U.S. We find that all four experiments replicate in nearly all of the countries, a pattern likely due to treatment effect homogeneity. Our study not only reveals that findings from the U.S. are similar to findings from a wide range of countries, but offers important implications for the design and interpretation of future experimental research in IR.},
	urldate = {2023-07-05},
	author = {Bassan-Nygate, Lotem and Renshon, Jonathan and Weeks, Jessica L. P. and Weiss, Chagai M.},
	month = may,
	year = {2023},
	doi = {10.33774/apsa-2023-dx9kp},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/E7RJJXST/Bassan-Nygate et al. - 2023 - The Generalizability of IR Experiments Beyond the .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{perrinWhoTrustsRace2009,
	title = {Who trusts? {Race}, gender, and the {September} 11 rally effect among young adults},
	volume = {38},
	issn = {0049089X},
	shorttitle = {Who trusts?},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0049089X08001002},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ssresearch.2008.09.001},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2023-07-06},
	journal = {Social Science Research},
	author = {Perrin, Andrew J. and Smolek, Sondra J.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {134--145},
	file = {Accepted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/8IANB4VV/Perrin and Smolek - 2009 - Who trusts Race, gender, and the September 11 ral.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{steinWarRevengeExplaining2015,
	title = {War and {Revenge}: {Explaining} {Conflict} {Initiation} by {Democracies}},
	volume = {109},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	shorttitle = {War and {Revenge}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0003055415000301/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055415000301},
	abstract = {While we know much about what differentiates the conflict behavior of democracies from autocracies, we know relatively little about why some democracies are more belligerent than others. In contrast to existing studies, I argue that it is public opinion and not institutions that drives these differences. All democratic leaders have an incentive to take public opinion into account, but public opinion is not the same everywhere. Individuals’ attitudes towards war are shaped by core beliefs about revenge, which vary across countries. Leaders with more vengeful populations will be more likely to initiate conflicts because they generate popular support for war more effectively. Using retention of capital punishment as a proxy for broad endorsement of revenge, I find that democracies that have retained the death penalty for longer periods of time are significantly more likely to initiate conflicts. This research has important implications for existing theories of democracy and war.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2023-07-10},
	journal = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Stein, Rachel M.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {556--573},
}

@article{johanssonWhenRallyaroundtheflagEffect2021,
	title = {When the rally-around-the-flag effect disappears, or: when the {COVID}-19 pandemic becomes “normalized”},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {1745-7289, 1745-7297},
	shorttitle = {When the rally-around-the-flag effect disappears, or},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17457289.2021.1924742},
	doi = {10.1080/17457289.2021.1924742},
	language = {en},
	number = {sup1},
	urldate = {2023-07-17},
	journal = {Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties},
	author = {Johansson, Bengt and Hopmann, David Nicolas and Shehata, Adam},
	month = may,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {321--334},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/YKNLH6SE/Johansson et al. - 2021 - When the rally-around-the-flag effect disappears, .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{lee1977rallying,
	title = {Rallying around the flag: {Foreign} policy events and presidential popularity},
	volume = {7},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Presidential Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Lee, Jong R},
	year = {1977},
	note = {Publisher: JSTOR},
	pages = {252--256},
}

@article{kinneDefenseCooperationAgreement2020,
	title = {The {Defense} {Cooperation} {Agreement} {Dataset} ({DCAD})},
	volume = {64},
	issn = {0022-0027, 1552-8766},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002719857796},
	doi = {10.1177/0022002719857796},
	abstract = {The academic study of defense cooperation focuses heavily on formal military alliances. Yet, governments rarely sign new alliances, and the global alliance structure has remained relatively static for decades. By contrast, governments are increasingly active in defense cooperation agreements (DCAs). These bilateral framework treaties institutionalize their signatories’ day-to-day defense relations, facilitating such wide-ranging activities as defense policy coordination, joint research and development, weapons production and arms trade, joint military exercises, training and exchange programs, peacekeeping, and information exchange. Nearly 2,000 DCAs have been signed since 1980. Preliminary evidence suggests that DCAs impact numerous security, military, and defense outcomes and that governments increasingly incorporate DCAs as core elements of their security strategies. This article introduces the new DCA Dataset (DCAD). I provide a brief historical background on DCAs and compare them to other commonly studied forms of defense cooperation. I then explain coding standards and describe the data set in detail. Finally, I illustrate applications of DCAD to militarized interstate disputes and arms trade.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2023-07-27},
	journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Kinne, Brandon J.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {729--755},
}

@article{carterBackFutureModeling2010,
	title = {Back to the {Future}: {Modeling} {Time} {Dependence} in {Binary} {Data}},
	volume = {18},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	shorttitle = {Back to the {Future}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1047198700012456/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1093/pan/mpq013},
	abstract = {Since Beck, Katz, and Tucker (1998), the standard method for modeling time dependence in binary data has been to incorporate time dummies or splined time in logistic regressions. Although we agree with the need for modeling time dependence, we demonstrate that time dummies can induce estimation problems due to separation. Splines do not suffer from these problems. However, the complexity of splines has led substantive researchers (1) to use knot values that may be inappropriate for their data and (2) to ignore any substantive discussion concerning temporal dependence. We propose a relatively simple alternative: including
              t, t
              2
              , and
              t
              3
              in the regression. This cubic polynomial approximation is trivial to implement—and, therefore, interpret—and it avoids problems such as quasi-complete separation. Monte Carlo analysis demonstrates that, for the types of hazards one often sees in substantive research, the polynomial approximation always outperforms time dummies and generally performs as well as splines or even more flexible autosmoothing procedures. Due to its simplicity, this method also accommodates nonproportional hazards in a straightforward way. We reanalyze Crowley and Skocpol (2001) using nonproportional hazards and find new empirical support for the historical-institutionalist perspective.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2023-07-27},
	journal = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Carter, David B. and Signorino, Curtis S.},
	year = {2010},
	pages = {271--292},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/6XEHX7RH/Carter and Signorino - 2010 - Back to the Future Modeling Time Dependence in Bi.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{corbettaDeterminantsThirdParties2010,
	title = {Determinants of {Third} {Parties}’ {Intervention} and {Alignment} {Choices} in {Ongoing} {Conflicts}, 1946–2001},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {17438586, 17438594},
	url = {http://fpa.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/doi/10.1111/j.1743-8594.2009.00102.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1743-8594.2009.00102.x},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2023-08-01},
	journal = {Foreign Policy Analysis},
	author = {Corbetta, Renato},
	month = jan,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {61--85},
}

@article{fangLimitAmericanPublic2024,
	title = {The {Limit} of {American} {Public} {Support} for {Military} {Intervention}},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {0095-327X, 1556-0848},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0095327X221107700},
	doi = {10.1177/0095327X221107700},
	abstract = {Under what conditions is the American public supportive of U.S. military intervention in foreign crises? We argue that the public assesses three key dimensions of an intervention: the motivation for an intervention, the form an intervention can take, and the tasks an intervention may be mandated to fulfill. Through a survey experiment, we test several hypotheses in the context of a potential U.S. military intervention in a civil war. Comparing different motivations, we find that the strategies (forms and mandates) matter much more for public support. Regardless of motivation, the American public is generally more supportive of multilateral forms of intervention and prefers mandates that focus on the protection of civilians and peaceful conflict resolution.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2023-08-05},
	journal = {Armed Forces \& Society},
	author = {Fang, Songying and Oestman, Jared},
	year = {2024},
	pages = {81--104},
}

@article{peezHowGeopoliticalCrisis2025,
	title = {How {Geopolitical} {Crisis} {Events} {Affect} {US} {Public} {Opinion} on {Foreign} {Policy}: {Evidence} from the {February} 2022 {Russian} {Invasion} of {Ukraine}},
	shorttitle = {How {Geopolitical} {Crisis} {Events} {Affect} {US} {Public} {Opinion} on {Foreign} {Policy}},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/osf/huady_v1},
	abstract = {The February 24, 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is a watershed event for the post-World War II international order that will likely shape global economic and political relations for decades. We analyze the effect of the invasion on public opinion on foreign policy. We present evidence from an original survey experiment on economic sanctions conducted in the US in mid-January 2022 and then identically re-run with the same respondents immediately after the start of the invasion in early March 2022 and again one year later in February/March 2023. We find that the invasion caused a substantial short-term increase in public support, much of which persisted one year later. These findings indicate how international crisis events can change foreign policy preferences in the short- and medium-term.},
	urldate = {2023-08-11},
	journal = {OSF Preprints},
	author = {Peez, Anton and Bethke, Felix S.},
	year = {2025},
	doi = {10.31219/osf.io/huady},
}

@article{uzonyiGenocidePoliticideProspects2021,
	title = {Genocide, {Politicide}, and the {Prospects} of {Democratization} since 1900},
	volume = {65},
	issn = {0022-0027, 1552-8766},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027211000445},
	doi = {10.1177/00220027211000445},
	abstract = {Why do some autocracies democratize? A country’s violent past has received little attention. We argue that genocide and politicide undermine democratization by binding the elites’ supporters more tightly to the governing power, while cementing in-group/out-group animosities, and helping preserve the elites’ status quo position within the state. We test this argument on a new dataset of government atrocity and democratization since 1900. These novel data allow us to capture many important instances of atrocity missed by others, and thus take a longer look at democratization and violence throughout history. We find that episodes of genocide and politicide are associated with a lower likelihood of democratization in both the short and long run. These effects are larger and more consistent than other common explanations for democratization. They also differ from the effects of non-genocidal civil war violence.},
	language = {en},
	number = {9},
	urldate = {2023-08-26},
	journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Uzonyi, Gary and Kim, Nam Kyu and Jahanbani, Nakissa and Asal, Victor},
	month = oct,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {1521--1550},
}

@article{lektzianEconomicPeaceDemocracies2003,
	title = {The {Economic} {Peace} {Between} {Democracies}: {Economic} {Sanctions} and {Domestic} {Institutions}},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	shorttitle = {The {Economic} {Peace} {Between} {Democracies}},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00223433030406002},
	doi = {10.1177/00223433030406002},
	abstract = {This article argues that the influence of democratic institutions in international relations extends beyond the military realm and into the economic. The authors extend Bueno de Mesquita et al.’s institutional theoryof political regimes to explain the use and variety of economic sanctions in world politics. It is argued that democracies impose sanctions more oftenthan other regime types because they encompass a greater variety of interest groups. Yet, institutional incentives for successful foreign policies lead democracies to prefer sanctioning non-democracies instead of democracies.The pacifying influence of jointly democratic regimes, then, extends into the economic realm. Further, these same institutional incentives account forvariation across regime types in the choice of sanctions used and the goalspursued. Owing to incentives to minimize harm to their public and achieve successful foreign policies, democratic regimes are more likely than non-democracies to impose financial sanctions and pursue minor foreign policy goals. The authors use the Hufbauer, Schott \& Elliott sanctions dataset to empirically evaluate each hypothesis. The empirical analysis supports the argument that domestic political institutions affect the incentives of leaders and, therefore, the foreign policies of states.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2023-08-30},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Lektzian, David and Souva, Mark},
	month = nov,
	year = {2003},
	pages = {641--660},
}

@article{daviesOrganizedViolence19892022,
	title = {Organized violence 1989–2021 and drone warfare},
	volume = {59},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00223433221108428},
	doi = {10.1177/00223433221108428},
	abstract = {This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). The falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized violence in the world, observed between 2014 and 2019, was decisively reversed in 2021 as fatalities increased significantly. UCDP registered more than 119,100 deaths in organized violence in 2021, a 46\% increase from the previous year. The increase was largely driven by escalating conflicts in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Yemen. Fatalities increased in all three categories of organized violence, despite a decrease in the number of active state-based conflicts, as well as the number of actors carrying out one-sided violence against civilians. UCDP recorded 54 state-based conflicts in 2021, a decrease by two compared to the previous year. Five of the conflicts were active at the intensity of war, the lowest number of wars since 2010. Violence in 2021 was thus concentrated to fewer but bloodier conflicts. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, have become increasingly important features of modern conflicts, and the trend in their usage is discussed in the special feature section. UAV usage has since 2019 dispersed among a significant larger number of actors, even as the downscaling in the involvement of the United States in the war on terror has led to a decrease in drone-related fatalities.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2023-08-30},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Davies, Shawn and Pettersson, Therése and Öberg, Magnus},
	month = jul,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {593--610},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/96UV9XFK/Davies et al. - 2022 - Organized violence 1989–2021 and drone warfare.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@misc{icgSanctionsPeacemakingReform2023,
	title = {Sanctions, {Peacemaking} and {Reform}: {Recommendations} for {U}.{S}. {Policymakers}. {United} {States} {Report} {N}°8},
	url = {https://icg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-08/008-us-sanctions_1.pdf},
	author = {ICG},
	month = aug,
	year = {2023},
}

@article{gilliganInterventionsCausePeace2008,
	title = {Do {UN} {Interventions} {Cause} {Peace}? {Using} {Matching} to {Improve} {Causal} {Inference}},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {15540634},
	shorttitle = {Do {UN} {Interventions} {Cause} {Peace}?},
	url = {http://www.nowpublishers.com/article/Details/QJPS-7051},
	doi = {10.1561/100.00007051},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2023-08-31},
	journal = {Quarterly Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Gilligan, Michael J.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {89--122},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/TPZD37BE/Gilligan - 2008 - Do UN Interventions Cause Peace Using Matching to.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{davenportStoppingStateRepression2022,
	title = {Stopping state repression: {An} examination of spells},
	volume = {59},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	shorttitle = {Stopping state repression},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00223433221078181},
	doi = {10.1177/00223433221078181},
	abstract = {While research into why repression/human rights violation goes up or down has thrived over the past 50 years, essentially no effort has been made to examine what stops this behavior once under way – especially activity that is large-scale as well as violent. To address this topic, we put forward the idea of a repressive spell (similar to that in the study of war, civil war, and terrorism) and a new theoretical framework that conceptualizes repression as a sticky process that is unlikely to terminate unless it is disturbed in some manner. Such an orientation is important because it leads us to conclude that disturbance is more likely to happen under situations of democratization compared to any of the factors typically highlighted in the literature and relevant policy community. Investigating a new database regarding 239 large-scale repression spells from 1976 to 2006, we find that democratization is associated with spell-termination and there is little systematic pacifying influence from anything else. Additionally, we find that nonviolent movements for change principally drive democratization but that these movements have little direct impact on state repression spells in and of themselves.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2023-08-31},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Davenport, Christian and Appel, Benjamin J},
	month = sep,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {633--647},
}

@article{reutersUSCongressVotes2022,
	title = {U.{S}. {Congress} votes to strip {Russia} of 'most favored' trade status, ban its oil},
	url = {https://web.archive.org/web/20240917141851/https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-backs-removal-most-favored-trade-status-russia-2022-04-07/},
	journal = {Reuters},
	author = {Reuters},
	month = apr,
	year = {2022},
}

@misc{reuters/ipsosPublicPollFindings2022,
	title = {Public {Poll} {Findings} and {Methodology}, {Ukraine} 6-{Month} {Anniversary} {Poll}},
	url = {https://web.archive.org/web/20221206000411/https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-08/Reuters%20Ukraine%20Half%20Anniversary%2008%2019%202022.pdf},
	author = {Reuters/Ipsos},
	month = aug,
	year = {2022},
}

@misc{aveyTRIPPolicymakerSurvey2023,
	title = {{TRIP} {Policymaker} {Survey} 2022 {Report}},
	url = {https://web.archive.org/web/20240716023413/https://trip.wm.edu/research/policymaker-surveys/report/Policymaker_Report_2022.pdf},
	author = {Avey, Paul C. and Entringer Garcia Blanes, Irene and Gillooly, Shauna N. and Peterson, Susan and Powers, Ryan and Shaver, Andrew and Tierney, Michael J.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2023},
}

@article{guisingerMappingBoundariesElite2017,
	title = {Mapping the {Boundaries} of {Elite} {Cues}: {How} {Elites} {Shape} {Mass} {Opinion} across {International} {Issues}},
	volume = {61},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	shorttitle = {Mapping the {Boundaries} of {Elite} {Cues}},
	url = {http://academic.oup.com/isq/article/61/2/425/4065443/Mapping-the-Boundaries-of-Elite-Cues-How-Elites},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqx022},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2023-10-19},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Guisinger, Alexandra and Saunders, Elizabeth N.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {425--441},
}

@article{smetanaElitePublicGapsAttitudes2022,
	title = {Elite-{Public} {Gaps} in {Attitudes} to {Nuclear} {Weapons}: {New} {Evidence} from a {Survey} of {German} {Citizens} and {Parliamentarians}},
	volume = {66},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	shorttitle = {Elite-{Public} {Gaps} in {Attitudes} to {Nuclear} {Weapons}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/doi/10.1093/isq/sqac017/6586709},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqac017},
	abstract = {Abstract
            A recent surge in survey-based scholarship has shed new light on public attitudes toward nuclear weapons. Yet, we still know little about how these public attitudes differ from those of political elites. To address this gap, we conducted an original survey on a large representative sample of German citizens and on a unique elite sample of German parliamentarians. In the survey, we asked the respondents about their views on different aspects of NATO's nuclear sharing practice. We found support for several hypotheses concerning nuclear use, extended deterrence, withdrawal of forward-deployed weapons, and the feasibility of global nuclear disarmament. As such, we provide systematic empirical evidence that there are, indeed, important gaps in public and elite attitudes toward nuclear weapons. Our findings underscore the argument that scholars should survey both political elites and the general public to obtain a comprehensive picture of attitudes toward pertinent questions in our field.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2023-10-19},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Smetana, Michal and Onderco, Michal},
	month = may,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {sqac017},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/6F58GXKY/Smetana and Onderco - 2022 - Elite-Public Gaps in Attitudes to Nuclear Weapons.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{walgraveHowPoliticiansLearn2023,
	title = {How politicians learn about public opinion},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {2053-1680, 2053-1680},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20531680231200692},
	doi = {10.1177/20531680231200692},
	abstract = {Politicians learning about public opinion and responding to their resulting perceptions is one key way via which responsive policy-making comes about. Despite the strong normative importance of politicians’ understanding of public opinion, empirical evidence on how politicians learn about these opinions in the first place is scant. Drawing on survey data collected from almost 900 incumbent politicians in five countries, this study presents unique descriptive evidence on which public opinion sources politicians deem most useful. The findings show that politicians deem direct citizen contact and information from traditional news media as the most useful sources of public opinion information, while social media cues and polls are considered much less useful. These findings matter for substantive representation, and for citizens’ feeling of being represented.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2023-10-25},
	journal = {Research \& Politics},
	author = {Walgrave, Stefaan and Soontjens, Karolin},
	month = jul,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {20531680231200692},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/ZAW2IMIZ/Walgrave and Soontjens - 2023 - How politicians learn about public opinion.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{pitkinConceptRepresentation1972,
	address = {Berkeley, CA},
	title = {The {Concept} of {Representation}},
	isbn = {978-0-520-02156-3},
	publisher = {University of California Press},
	author = {Pitkin, Hanna Fenichel},
	year = {1972},
	annote = {Literaturverz. S. [297] - 311 Mit Reg Copyright: 1967 by the Regents of the University of California. - Die "1. paperback ed." erschien 1972 zum 1. Mal},
}

@article{esaiassonAdvancesStudyDemocratic2017,
	title = {Advances in the {Study} of {Democratic} {Responsiveness}: {An} {Introduction}},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {0010-4140, 1552-3829},
	shorttitle = {Advances in the {Study} of {Democratic} {Responsiveness}},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0010414016633226},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414016633226},
	abstract = {Responsiveness is a central quality of representative democracy. During the past decades, a number of innovative studies have advanced our knowledge about actual responsiveness processes. However, research on the consequences that follow from responsiveness has lagged behind and forms the subject of this special issue. Our introduction identifies a range of conceptual issues that arise as we focus attention on citizens’ reactions to the ways in which politicians relate to public sentiments between elections.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2023-10-25},
	journal = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Esaiasson, Peter and Wlezien, Christopher},
	month = may,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {699--710},
}

@incollection{petryHowPolicyMakers2007,
	title = {How policy makers view public opinion},
	isbn = {978-0-8020-8004-2 978-0-8020-3787-9},
	booktitle = {Policy analysis in {Canada}: the state of the art},
	publisher = {University of Toronto Press},
	author = {Petry, François},
	editor = {Dobuzinskis, Laurent and Laycock, David H. and Howlett, Michael},
	year = {2007},
	note = {OCLC: ocm79256036},
	keywords = {Canada, Manuels d'enseignement supérieur, Policy sciences, Political planning, Politique publique, Sciences de la politique},
	pages = {375--398},
}

@article{rathbunGreaterGoodsMorality2020,
	title = {Greater {Goods}: {Morality} and {Attitudes} toward the {Use} of {Nuclear} {Weapons}},
	volume = {64},
	issn = {0022-0027, 1552-8766},
	shorttitle = {Greater {Goods}},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002719879994},
	doi = {10.1177/0022002719879994},
	abstract = {Recent research into the public’s attitude toward the use of nuclear weapons repeats long-standing mistakes in how international relations theorists think about morality. Falsely equating consequentialism with state egoism and normative obligations with restrictions on the use of weapons of mass destruction implies that ethically motivated beliefs about foreign affairs must be other-regarding and that other-regarding behavior is not utilitarian in character. Drawing on empirical research into moral psychology, we argue that liberal, other-regarding morality is only one kind of ethical foundation. Alternative moral concerns such as retribution, deference to authority, and in-group loyalty also help to determine foreign policy beliefs. We find that all three are associated with support for the use of nuclear weapons in the American public. Our survey respondents act as moral utilitarians who weigh different ethical considerations in forming their judgments.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2023-11-14},
	journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Rathbun, Brian C. and Stein, Rachel},
	month = may,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {787--816},
}

@article{peezMultimethodResearchMore2024,
	title = {Is multi-method research more convincing than single-method research? {An} analysis of {International} {Relations} journal articles, 1980–2018},
	volume = {33},
	issn = {0963-6412, 1556-1852},
	shorttitle = {Is multi-method research more convincing than single-method research?},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2262388},
	doi = {10.1080/09636412.2023.2262388},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2023-11-15},
	journal = {Security Studies},
	author = {Peez, Anton},
	year = {2024},
	pages = {55--87},
}

@incollection{kertzer2018public,
	title = {Public {Opinion} and {Foreign} {Policy}},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780197541302.013.12},
	booktitle = {Oxford {Handbook} of {Political} {Psychology}},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Kertzer, Joshua D.},
	editor = {Huddy, Leonie and Sears, David and Levy, Jack and Jerit, Jennifer},
	year = {2023},
}

@book{kennan2012american,
	title = {American diplomacy},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	author = {Kennan, George F},
	year = {1951},
}

@book{almond1950american,
	title = {The {American} {People} and {Foreign} {Policy}},
	publisher = {Harcourt, Brace},
	author = {Almond, Gabriel Abraham},
	year = {1950},
	note = {Publisher: Harcourt, Brace},
}

@book{lippmann1955essays,
	title = {Essays in the {Public} {Philosophy}},
	publisher = {Transaction Publishers},
	author = {Lippmann, Walter},
	year = {1955},
}

@article{luptonWitherElitesRole2022,
	title = {Wither {Elites}? {The} {Role} of {Elite} {Credibility} and {Knowledge} in {Public} {Perceptions} of {Foreign} {Policy}},
	volume = {66},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	shorttitle = {Wither {Elites}?},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/doi/10.1093/isq/sqac057/6693953},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqac057},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Existing theories of foreign policy opinion formation tend to treat elites as a black-box category for members of the nonpublic. This misses important nuances in public perceptions of elites. We argue that elite vocation serves as an important source cue, signaling elite access to information and elite knowledge that can be brought to bear on that information. We use a survey experiment to evaluate our hypotheses comparing four types of elites: elected officials, academics, career professionals, and members of the media. We find that, even accounting for partisanship, people still evaluate elites as knowledgeable and credible. There are also important differences in public perceptions of elites that should be accounted for in our theories of opinion formation. These findings have important implications for the in vogue death of expertise argument as well as research on public perceptions of foreign policy and public opinion formation.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2023-11-24},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Lupton, Danielle L and Webb, Clayton},
	year = {2022},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/ZX7WFIJN/Lupton and Webb - 2022 - Wither Elites The Role of Elite Credibility and K.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{holstiPublicOpinionForeign1992,
	title = {Public {Opinion} and {Foreign} {Policy}: {Challenges} to the {Almond}-{Lippmann} {Consensus} {Mershon} {Series}: {Research} {Programs} and {Debates}},
	volume = {36},
	issn = {00208833},
	shorttitle = {Public {Opinion} and {Foreign} {Policy}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-lookup/doi/10.2307/2600734},
	doi = {10.2307/2600734},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2023-11-24},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Holsti, Ole R.},
	month = dec,
	year = {1992},
	pages = {439},
}

@book{holstiPublicOpinionAmerican2004,
	address = {Ann Arbor},
	title = {Public opinion and {American} foreign policy},
	isbn = {978-0-472-02230-4 978-0-472-03011-8},
	publisher = {The University of Michigan Press},
	author = {Holsti, Ole R.},
	year = {2004},
	annote = {Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 333-363},
	annote = {The post-World War II consensus -- Challenges to the postwar consensus -- Opinion leaders -- Sources of foreign policy attitudes -- A return to isolationism and unilateralism? pre-and post-September 11 -- Public opinion and foreign policy: where do we go from here?},
}

@incollection{foylePublicOpinion2012,
	address = {New York},
	title = {Public {Opinion}},
	isbn = {978-0-415-80088-4 978-0-203-87863-7},
	booktitle = {Routledge handbook of {American} foreign policy},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Foyle, Douglas C.},
	editor = {Hook, Steven W. and Jones, Christopher M.},
	year = {2012},
	note = {OCLC: ocn548660401},
	keywords = {Foreign relations, United States, Handbooks, manuals, etc},
	annote = {Part I: Research traditions and historical experience: The study of American foreign policy / Margaret G. Hermann; Diplomatic history / James M. McCormick; America in the Cold War / Robert D. Schulzinger; The post-Cold War era / Steven W. Hook -- Part II: Theoretical perspectives: Realism / Henry R. Nau; Liberalism / Alynna J. Lyon; Critical theories / Howard J. Wiarda and Ann P. Kryzanek; Constructivism / Jennifer Sterling-Folker and Dina Badie; Bureaucratic politics / Christopher M. Jones; Individual and group decision making / Mark Schafer -- Part III: State actors: The presidency / Glenn P. Hastedt; The National Security Council / Vincent A. Auger; The Department of State / Jerel Rosati and Scott DeWitt; The Department of Defense / Peter J. Dombrowski; National Security Intelligence / Loch K. Johnson; The foreign economic bureaucracy / I.M. Mac Destler; Congress / Ralph G. Carter and James M. Scott; Law and courts / Gordon Silverstein -- Part IV: Non-state actors: Public opinion / Douglas C. Foyle; News media / Douglas A. Van Belle; Interest groups / Patrick J. Haney; Multilateralism / Laura Neack -- Part V: Policy instruments: the use of military force / Brandon C. Prins and Mark Souva; Economic sanctions / David Lektzian and Mark Souva; Foreign aid / Marijke Breuning and Christopher Linebarger -- Part VI: Transnational challenges: Weapons proliferation and arms control / Dan Caldwell; Counterterrorism / Bradley A. Thayer; Global trade / Terrence Guay; Human rights / Shannon Lindsey Blanton and David L. Cingranelli; Environmental policy / Michael E. Kraft; The balance of power / R. William Ayres},
}

@techreport{kimWeightingExperimentalData2023,
	type = {preprint},
	title = {Weighting {Experimental} {Data}? {Lessons} {From} {Reproducing} {Chu} and {Recchia} (2022)},
	shorttitle = {Weighting {Experimental} {Data}?},
	url = {https://osf.io/56t7s},
	abstract = {Chu and Recchia (2022) conducted a survey experiment with 101 British members of Parliament (MPs) to test whether providing information on public opinion shifts policymaker opinion in the direction favored by the public. In this report, we test the reproducibility of Chu and Recchia’s results and conduct our own analyses of their data. Although we find that their main results are reproducible, whether weights are applied in the analyses qualitatively changes the results: Not applying weights to their experimental data reduces not only the perceived impressiveness of the results but also their statistical significance (from p = .097 to p = .64). Our findings highlight how the decision to apply weights can be a researcher degree of freedom and serve to echo two recommendations by methodologists: (1) Report the unweighted analyses of experimental data (i.e., estimate the Sample Average Treatment Effect), (2) then apply weights properly to generalize the effect found in the sample to the population of interest (i.e., estimate the Population Average Treatment Effect).},
	urldate = {2023-11-24},
	institution = {PsyArXiv},
	author = {Kim, Jin and Wong, Jared},
	month = jun,
	year = {2023},
	doi = {10.31234/osf.io/56t7s},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/H7MC9RYM/Kim and Wong - 2023 - Weighting Experimental Data Lessons From Reproduc.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{kleinbergDonKnowMuch2017,
	title = {Don’t {Know} {Much} about {Foreign} {Policy}: {Assessing} the {Impact} of “{Don}’t {Know}” and “{No} {Opinion}” {Responses} on {Inferences} about {Foreign} {Policy} {Attitudes}},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {1743-8586, 1743-8594},
	shorttitle = {Don’t {Know} {Much} about {Foreign} {Policy}},
	url = {http://academic.oup.com/fpa/advance-article/doi/10.1093/fpa/orw060/3052690},
	doi = {10.1093/fpa/orw060},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2023-11-24},
	journal = {Foreign Policy Analysis},
	author = {Kleinberg, Katja B. and Fordham, Benjamin O.},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {429--448},
}

@misc{statedepartmentDEIADemographicBaseline2023,
	title = {{DEIA} {Demographic} {Baseline} {Report} {FY22}. {Department} {Snapshot} \& {Civil} {Service} {Demographic} {Distribution} by {Grade}},
	url = {https://web.archive.org/web/20231001153624/https://www.state.gov/deia-dbr/},
	author = {{State Department}},
	year = {2023},
}

@article{francoDevelopingStandardsPostHoc2017,
	title = {Developing {Standards} for {Post}-{Hoc} {Weighting} in {Population}-{Based} {Survey} {Experiments}},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {2052-2630, 2052-2649},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2052263017000021/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/XPS.2017.2},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Weighting techniques are employed to generalize results from survey experiments to populations of theoretical and substantive interest. Although weighting is often viewed as a second-order methodological issue, these adjustment methods invoke untestable assumptions about the nature of sample selection and potential heterogeneity in the treatment effect. Therefore, although weighting is a useful technique in estimating population quantities, it can introduce bias and also be used as a researcher degree of freedom. We review survey experiments published in three major journals from 2000–2015 and find that there are no standard operating procedures for weighting survey experiments. We argue that all survey experiments should report the sample average treatment effect (SATE). Researchers seeking to generalize to a broader population can weight to estimate the population average treatment effect (PATE), but should discuss the construction and application of weights in a detailed and transparent manner given the possibility that weighting can introduce bias.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2023-11-24},
	journal = {Journal of Experimental Political Science},
	author = {Franco, Annie and Malhotra, Neil and Simonovits, Gabor and Zigerell, L. J.},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {161--172},
}

@article{powlickAttitudinalBasesResponsiveness1991,
	title = {The {Attitudinal} {Bases} for {Responsiveness} to {Public} {Opinion} among {American} {Foreign} {Policy} {Officials}},
	volume = {35},
	issn = {0022-0027, 1552-8766},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002791035004003},
	doi = {10.1177/0022002791035004003},
	abstract = {This study examines the attitudes of American foreign policy officials toward (1) the public's sophistication on matters of foreign policy, and (2) the degree of input the public should have into policy and the appropriate level of policy responsiveness. It finds officials to be marginally more positive about the public's sophistication than has previously been thought, but finds a major difference (increase) in the degree of input that officials feel the public should have into the policy process. The result of these sets of attitudes is a form of responsiveness whereby officials factor public opinion into decisions, but then attempt to change public opinion (by “educating” the public) if opposition to a decision subsequently emerges.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2023-11-24},
	journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Powlick, Philip J.},
	month = dec,
	year = {1991},
	pages = {611--641},
}

@article{peezDoesPublicOpinion2024,
	title = {Does {Public} {Opinion} on {Foreign} {Policy} {Affect} {Elite} {Preferences}? {Evidence} from the 2022 {US} {Sanctions} against {Russia}},
	shorttitle = {Does {Public} {Opinion} on {Foreign} {Policy} {Affect} {Elite} {Preferences}?},
	url = {https://osf.io/qzrj2},
	abstract = {Does US public opinion on international affairs affect political elites’ policy preferences? Most research assumes that political elites do indeed consider public opinion in their decision-making process. However, this key assumption is difficult to test empirically given limited research access to political elites. We examine elite responsiveness to public opinion on sanctioning Russia during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. We fielded a pre-registered experiment within the 2022/23 TRIP survey of US foreign policy practitioners, offering a rare opportunity for a fairly large elite survey experiment (n = 253) with important policy actors who have not been studied in this context. We used current public polling highly supportive of increasing sanctions as an information treatment. Our research design, involving a highly salient real-world issue and treatment, substantially expands on previous work. Exposure to the treatment raises elite support for increasing sanctions from 68.0\% to 76.3\% (+8.3 percentage points). While sizable, this effect is smaller than those identified elsewhere. We argue that this difference is driven by pre-treatment dynamics, ceiling effects, and issue salience, and is therefore all the more notable. While our results support previous research, they also highlight issues of external validity and the context dependence of elite responsiveness.},
	urldate = {2023-11-26},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Peez, Anton and Bethke, Felix S.},
	year = {2024},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/qzrj2},
}

@article{ciukEffectsIssueSalience2016,
	title = {The {Effects} of {Issue} {Salience}, {Elite} {Influence}, and {Policy} {Content} on {Public} {Opinion}},
	volume = {33},
	issn = {1058-4609, 1091-7675},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10584609.2015.1017629},
	doi = {10.1080/10584609.2015.1017629},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2023-12-12},
	journal = {Political Communication},
	author = {Ciuk, David J. and Yost, Berwood A.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {328--345},
}

@article{moretHumanitarianImpactsEconomic2015,
	title = {Humanitarian impacts of economic sanctions on {Iran} and {Syria}},
	volume = {24},
	number = {1},
	journal = {European Security},
	author = {Moret, Erica S.},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {120--140},
}

@article{grossmanHowSanctionsAffect2018,
	title = {How sanctions affect public opinion in target countries: {Experimental} evidence from {Israel}},
	volume = {51},
	number = {14},
	journal = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Grossman, Guy and Manekin, Devorah and Margalit, Yotam},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {1823--1857},
}

@article{hellquistOstracismEUContradictory2019,
	title = {Ostracism and the {EU}’s contradictory approach to sanctions at home and abroad},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1356-9775},
	doi = {10.1080/13569775.2018.1553083},
	abstract = {The European Union (EU) is one of the world’s most active imposers of foreign policy sanctions. By contrast, the EU has never used formal political sanctions against a member. Why does the EU favour sanctions as an instrument to deal with norm violations abroad, but not at home? The article argues that an understanding of sanctions as ostracism helps illuminate this discrepancy. Far from technical instruments that can be made to ‘work’ through improved design, sanctions are social instruments that operate through selective exclusion. An in-depth scrutiny of public justifications from the European institutions and individual politicians shows that both at home and abroad sanctions are strongly associated with ostracising attributes. However, whereas practical and symbolic distance-taking from the target is core for foreign policy sanctions, at home, the same ostracising properties run against the EU’s traditional insistence on resolving disagreements through rational dialogue.},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Contemporary Politics},
	author = {Hellquist, Elin},
	month = aug,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {393--418},
}

@misc{lynchSunsetSanctions2021,
	title = {Sunset for {UN} {Sanctions}?},
	url = {https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/14/sanctions-united-nations-expert-panels-russia-china-africa-western-countries/},
	publisher = {Foreign Policy},
	author = {Lynch, Colum},
	month = oct,
	year = {2021},
}

@techreport{lakensWhenHowDeviate2023,
	type = {preprint},
	title = {When and {How} to {Deviate} from a {Preregistration}},
	url = {https://osf.io/ha29k},
	abstract = {As the practice of preregistration becomes more common, researchers need guidance in how to report deviations from their preregistered statistical analysis plan. A principled approach to the use of preregistration should not treat all deviations as problematic. Deviations from a preregistered analysis plan can both reduce and increase the severity of a test, as well as increase the validity of inferences. I provide examples of how researchers can present deviations from preregistrations and evaluate the consequences of the deviation when encountering 1) unforeseen events, 2) errors in the preregistration, 3) missing information, 4) violations of untested assumptions, and 5) falsification of auxiliary hypotheses. The current manuscript aims to provide a principled approach to deciding when to deviate from a preregistration and how to report deviations from an error-statistical philosophy grounded in methodological falsificationism. The goal is to help researchers reflect on the consequence of deviations from preregistrations by evaluating the test's severity and the validity of the inference.},
	urldate = {2024-02-06},
	institution = {PsyArXiv},
	author = {Lakens, Daniel},
	month = dec,
	year = {2023},
	doi = {10.31234/osf.io/ha29k},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/37RG8NBC/Lakens - 2023 - When and How to Deviate from a Preregistration.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{ariHumanRightsViolations2024,
	title = {Human rights violations and public support for sanctions},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00223433231201450},
	doi = {10.1177/00223433231201450},
	abstract = {Public pressure to take punitive action against human rights violators is often a driving force behind international sanctions. However, we know little about the way in which public support is shaped by varying types of abuse, the costs and effectiveness of sanctions and the differential harm they inflict upon the target population and leadership. Our study specifically addresses this gap by unpicking contextual factors that jointly sway the perception of morality and the cost-benefit calculus. We propose that there is no simple trade-off between instrumental and moral concerns. The context within which violations take place and the interactions between moral and instrumental dimensions shape preference formation. Findings from our paired conjoint experiment suggest that whether respondents support imposing sanctions depends on the category of human rights abuse and its perceived salience. Individuals also prefer sheltering the target population while punishing the leadership, but collective punishment becomes less unacceptable if the majority of the target population support the human rights infringements. The desire to do something against the perpetrators amplifies the appeal of punishing the leadership but assuages the moral concerns of harming the population.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-02-07},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Arı, Barış and Sonmez, Burak},
	year = {2024},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/HJVU84UA/Arı and Sonmez - 2024 - Human rights violations and public support for san.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{majnemerNamesNowhereFictitious2022,
	title = {Names from {Nowhere}? {Fictitious} {Country} {Names} in {Survey} {Vignettes} {Affect} {Experimental} {Results}},
	volume = {67},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	shorttitle = {Names from {Nowhere}?},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/doi/10.1093/isq/sqac081/6987670},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqac081},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Using fictitious country names in hypothetical scenarios is widespread in experimental international relations research. We survey sixty-four peer-reviewed articles to find that it is justified by reference to necessary “neutralization” compared to real-world scenarios. However, this neutralization effect has not been independently tested. Indeed, psychology and toponymy scholarship suggest that names entail implicit cues that can inadvertently bias survey results. We use a survey experiment to test neutralization and naming effects. We find not only limited evidence for neutralization, but also little evidence for systematic naming effects. Instead, we find that respondents were often more willing to support using force against fictitious countries than even adversarial real-world countries. Real-world associations may provide a “deterrent” effect not captured by hypothetical scenarios with fictitious country names. In turn, fictionalization may decrease the stakes as experienced by respondents. Researchers should therefore carefully explain rationales for and expected effects of fictitious country names, and test their fictitious names independently.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-02-07},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Majnemer, Jacklyn and Meibauer, Gustav},
	month = dec,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {sqac081},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/6Z3QDXDI/Majnemer and Meibauer - 2022 - Names from Nowhere Fictitious Country Names in Su.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{robertsStructuralTopicModels2014,
	title = {Structural {Topic} {Models} for {Open}‐{Ended} {Survey} {Responses}},
	volume = {58},
	issn = {0092-5853, 1540-5907},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12103},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12103},
	abstract = {Collection and especially analysis of open‐ended survey responses are relatively rare in the discipline and when conducted are almost exclusively done through human coding. We present an alternative, semiautomated approach, the structural topic model (STM) (Roberts, Stewart, and Airoldi 2013; Roberts et al. 2013), that draws on recent developments in machine learning based analysis of textual data. A crucial contribution of the method is that it incorporates information about the document, such as the author's gender, political affiliation, and treatment assignment (if an experimental study). This article focuses on how the STM is helpful for survey researchers and experimentalists. The STM makes analyzing open‐ended responses easier, more revealing, and capable of being used to estimate treatment effects. We illustrate these innovations with analysis of text from surveys and experiments.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-02-07},
	journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Roberts, Margaret E. and Stewart, Brandon M. and Tingley, Dustin and Lucas, Christopher and Leder‐Luis, Jetson and Gadarian, Shana Kushner and Albertson, Bethany and Rand, David G.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {1064--1082},
	file = {Accepted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/K9IWD8PV/Roberts et al. - 2014 - Structural Topic Models for Open‐Ended Survey Resp.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{wallstreetjournalUSVotersFollowing2022,
	title = {{US} {Voters} {Following} {Ukraine} {News} {Closely}},
	url = {https://web.archive.org/web/20220313084509/https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-11/card/wsj-poll-u-s-voters-following-ukraine-news-closely-cvFk7jhZIUS7Ob3U6qoQ.},
	author = {{Wall Street Journal}},
	month = mar,
	year = {2022},
}

@misc{gallupCountryRatingsRussia2023,
	title = {Country {Ratings}. {Russia}/{Soviet} {Union}, 1989–2023},
	url = {http://web.archive.org/web/20240201172735/https://news.gallup.com/poll/1624/perceptions-foreign-countries.aspx},
	author = {{Gallup}},
	month = feb,
	year = {2023},
}

@article{heinzelIncentivizingResponsesInternational2024,
	title = {Incentivizing {Responses} in {International} {Organization} {Elite} {Surveys}: {Evidence} from the {World} {Bank}},
	issn = {2052-2630, 2052-2649},
	shorttitle = {Incentivizing {Responses} in {International} {Organization} {Elite} {Surveys}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2052263023000398/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/XPS.2023.39},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Scholars of International Organizations (IOs) increasingly use elite surveys to study the preferences and decisions of policymakers. When designing these surveys, one central concern is low statistical power, because respondents are typically recruited from a small and inaccessible population. However, much of what we know about how to incentivize elites to participate in surveys is based on anecdotal reflections, rather than systematic evidence on which incentives work best. In this article, we study the efficacy of three incentives in a preregistered experiment with World Bank staff. These incentives were the chance to win an Amazon voucher, a donation made to a relevant charity, and a promise to provide a detailed report on the findings. We find that no incentive outperformed the control group, and the monetary incentive decreased the number of respondents on average by one-third compared to the control group (from around 8\% to around 5\%).},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-02-23},
	journal = {Journal of Experimental Political Science},
	author = {Heinzel, Mirko and Weaver, Catherine and Briggs, Ryan},
	month = jan,
	year = {2024},
	pages = {1--10},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/STMU4RTT/Heinzel et al. - 2024 - Incentivizing Responses in International Organizat.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{charronIntroductionUnitedNations2015,
	title = {Introduction: the {United} {Nations} and targeted sanctions},
	volume = {91},
	issn = {00205850},
	shorttitle = {Introduction},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/ia/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/1468-2346.12457},
	doi = {10.1111/1468-2346.12457},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2024-03-12},
	journal = {International Affairs},
	author = {Charron, Andrea and Giumelli, Francesco and Portela, Clara},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {1335--1337},
}

@article{snetkovLoudDissenterIts2015,
	title = {'{The} {Loud} {Dissenter} and its {Cautious} {Partner}': {Russia}, {China}, global governance and humanitarian intervention},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1470-482X, 1470-4838},
	shorttitle = {The {Loud} {Dissenter} and its {Cautious} {Partner}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/irap/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/irap/lcu018},
	doi = {10.1093/irap/lcu018},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-03-16},
	journal = {International Relations of the Asia-Pacific},
	author = {Snetkov, Aglaya and Lanteigne, Marc},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {113--146},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/MDLFFSYA/Snetkov and Lanteigne - 2015 - 'The Loud Dissenter and its Cautious Partner' - Ru.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{garwood-gowersChinaResponsibilityProtect2012,
	title = {China and the “{Responsibility} to {Protect}”: {The} {Implications} of the {Libyan} {Intervention}},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {2044-2513, 2044-2521},
	shorttitle = {China and the “{Responsibility} to {Protect}”},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S204425131200015X/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S204425131200015X},
	abstract = {The emerging principle of the “responsibility to protect” (R2P) challenges China's traditional emphasis on non-intervention in the domestic affairs of other states and non-use of force. This article considers the impact of the 2011 Libyan intervention on Beijing's evolving relationship with R2P, and assesses its implications for the future development of the doctrine itself. It argues that China's decision to allow the passage of Security Council resolution 1973, which authorized force in Libya, was shaped by an unusual set of political and factual circumstances, and does not represent a significant softening of Chinese attitudes towards R2P. More broadly, controversy over the scope of NATO's military action in Libya has raised questions about R2P's legitimacy, which have contributed to a lack of timely international action in Syria. In the short term, this post-Libya backlash against R2P is likely to constrain the Security Council's ability to respond decisively in civilian protection situations.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-03-16},
	journal = {Asian Journal of International Law},
	author = {Garwood-Gowers, Andrew},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {375--393},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/VXRZDQMI/Garwood-Gowers - 2012 - China and the “Responsibility to Protect” The Imp.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{martinChinasCivilianArmy2021,
	address = {Oxford},
	title = {China's civilian army: the making of wolf warrior diplomacy},
	isbn = {978-0-19-751370-5},
	shorttitle = {China's civilian army},
	abstract = {China's Civilian Army charts China's transformation from an isolated and impoverished communist state to a global superpower from the perspective of those on the front line: China's diplomats. They give a rare perspective on the greatest geopolitical drama of the last half century. In the early days of the People's Republic, diplomats were highly-disciplined, committed communists who feared revealing any weakness to the threatening capitalist world. Remarkably, the model that revolutionary leader Zhou Enlai established continues to this day despite the massive changes the country has undergone in recent decades. Little is known or understood about the inner workings of the Chinese government as the country bursts onto the world stage, as the world's second largest economy and an emerging military superpower. China's Diplomats embody its battle between insecurity and self-confidence, internally and externally. To this day, Chinese diplomats work in pairs so that one can always watch the other for signs of ideological impurity. They're often dubbed China's "wolf warriors" for their combative approach to asserting Chinese interests. Drawing for the first time on the memoirs of more than a hundred retired diplomats as well as author Peter Martin's first-hand reporting as a journalist in Beijing, this groundbreaking book blends history with current events to tease out enduring lessons about the kind of power China is set to become. It is required reading for anyone who wants to understand China's quest for global power, as seen from the inside},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Martin, Peter},
	year = {2021},
	annote = {Literaturhinweise Seite 231-288 Register Seite 289-298},
	annote = {The founder Shadow diplomacy War by other means Chasing respectability Between truth and lies Diplomacy in retreat Selective integration Rethinking capitalism The fightback Ambition realized Overreach},
	file = {Table of Contents PDF:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/9CQZSW7N/Martin - 2021 - China's civilian army the making of wolf warrior .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{dreznerUnitedStatesSanctions2021,
	title = {The {United} {States} of {Sanctions}: {The} {Use} and {Abuse} of {Economic} {Coercion}},
	volume = {100},
	url = {https://heinonline.org/HOL/P?h=hein.journals/fora100&i=1008},
	language = {eng},
	number = {5},
	journal = {Foreign Affairs},
	author = {Drezner, Daniel W.},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {142--154},
}

@misc{usdepartmentofthetreasury2021SanctionsReview2021,
	title = {2021 {Sanctions} {Review}},
	url = {https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/Treasury-2021-sanctions-review.pdf},
	author = {{US Department of the Treasury}},
	year = {2021},
}

@article{chenChinaRussiaR2P2020,
	title = {China and {Russia} in {R2P} debates at the {UN} {Security} {Council}},
	volume = {96},
	copyright = {https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open\_access/funder\_policies/chorus/standard\_publication\_model},
	issn = {0020-5850, 1468-2346},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/96/3/787/5712435},
	doi = {10.1093/ia/iiz229},
	abstract = {Abstract
            While China and Russia's general policies towards the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) are similar, the two reveal nuanced differences in addressing specific emergencies. Both express support for the first two pillars of R2P while resisting coercive intervention under its aegis, as they share anxieties of domestic political security and concerns about their international image. Nonetheless, addressing cases like the Syrian crisis, Russian statements are more assertive and even aggressive while Chinese ones are usually vague and reactive. This article highlights the two states’ different tones through computer-assisted text analyses. It argues that diplomatic styles reflect Russian and Chinese perceptions of their own place in the evolving international order. Experiences in past decades create divergent reference points and status prospects for them, which leads to their different strategies in signalling Great Power status. As Beijing is optimistic about its status-rising prospects, it exercises more self-restraint in order to avoid external containments and is reluctant to act as an independent ‘spoiler’. Meanwhile, Moscow interprets its Great Power status more from a frame of ‘loss’ and therefore is inclined to adopt a sterner approach to signal its status. Although their policies complement each other on many occasions, there is nothing akin to a Sino–Russian ‘bloc’.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2024-03-28},
	journal = {International Affairs},
	author = {Chen, Zheng and Yin, Hang},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {787--805},
}

@article{gilardiChatGPTOutperformsCrowd2023,
	title = {{ChatGPT} outperforms crowd workers for text-annotation tasks},
	volume = {120},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {https://pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2305016120},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.2305016120},
	abstract = {Many NLP applications require manual text annotations for a variety of tasks, notably to train classifiers or evaluate the performance of unsupervised models. Depending on the size and degree of complexity, the tasks may be conducted by crowd workers on platforms such as MTurk as well as trained annotators, such as research assistants. Using four samples of tweets and news articles (
              n
              = 6,183), we show that ChatGPT outperforms crowd workers for several annotation tasks, including relevance, stance, topics, and frame detection. Across the four datasets, the zero-shot accuracy of ChatGPT exceeds that of crowd workers by about 25 percentage points on average, while ChatGPT’s intercoder agreement exceeds that of both crowd workers and trained annotators for all tasks. Moreover, the per-annotation cost of ChatGPT is less than \$0.003—about thirty times cheaper than MTurk. These results demonstrate the potential of large language models to drastically increase the efficiency of text classification.},
	language = {en},
	number = {30},
	urldate = {2024-03-29},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Gilardi, Fabrizio and Alizadeh, Meysam and Kubli, Maël},
	year = {2023},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/AYLZ26Z8/Gilardi et al. - 2023 - ChatGPT outperforms crowd workers for text-annotat.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@misc{brockmeier-largeGermanForeignPolicy2024,
	title = {German {Foreign} {Policy} and the {Rwandan} {Genocide}: {A} {First} {Examination} of {Archival} {Records} from the {German} {Federal} {Foreign} {Office}},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/9ks5f},
	publisher = {Heinrich Böll Foundation/GPPi},
	author = {Brockmeier-Large, Sarah and Peez, Anton},
	month = mar,
	year = {2024},
}

@book{gourevitchWeWishInform1999,
	address = {New York},
	edition = {1. Picador paperback ed},
	title = {We wish to inform you that tomorrow we will be killed with our families: {Stories} from {Rwanda}},
	isbn = {978-0-312-24335-7},
	shorttitle = {We wish to inform you that tomorrow we will be killed with our families},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Picador USA},
	author = {Gourevitch, Philip},
	year = {1999},
}

@book{sibomanaHopeRwandaConversations1999,
	address = {London},
	series = {International studies, human rights},
	title = {Hope for {Rwanda}: conversations with {Laure} {Guilbert} and {Hervé} {Deguine}},
	isbn = {978-0-7453-1561-4 978-0-7453-1566-9 978-9976-973-61-7},
	shorttitle = {Hope for {Rwanda}},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Pluto Press [u.a.]},
	author = {Sibomana, André and Tertsakian, Carina and Guilbert, Laure and Deguine, Hervé and Sibomana, André},
	year = {1999},
	annote = {Includes bibliographical references (p. 173-179) and index},
}

@book{mcdoomPathGenocideRwanda2020,
	address = {New York},
	series = {African studies series},
	title = {The path to genocide in {Rwanda}: security, opportunity, and authority in an ethnocratic state},
	isbn = {978-1-108-49146-4 978-1-108-79832-7},
	shorttitle = {The path to genocide in {Rwanda}},
	abstract = {"The shocking characteristics of Rwanda's genocide in 1994 have etched themselves indelibly on the global conscience. The Path to Genocide in Rwanda combines extensive, original field data with some of the best existing evidence to evaluate the myriad theories behind the genocide and to offer a rigorous and comprehensive explanation of how and why it occurred, and why so many Rwandans participated in it. Drawing on interviews with over three hundred Rwandans, Omar Shahabudin McDoom systematically compares those who participated in the violence against those who did not. He contrasts communities that experienced violence early with communities where violence began late, as well as communities where violence was limited with communities where it was massive. His findings offer new perspectives on some of the most troubling questions concerning the genocide, while also providing a broader engagement with key theoretical debates in the study of genocides and ethnic conflict"--},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {McDoom, Omar Shahabudin},
	year = {2020},
	keywords = {Ethnic relations, Genocide, Hutu (African people), Politics and government, Rwanda, Tutsi (African people), Crimes against},
}

@book{boveComposingPeaceMission2020,
	address = {New York},
	edition = {1e},
	title = {Composing peace: mission composition in un peacekeeping},
	isbn = {978-0-19-879065-5},
	shorttitle = {Composing peace},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Bove, Vincenzo and Ruffa, Chiara and Ruggeri, Andrea},
	year = {2020},
}

@article{myrickExternalThreatsUnite2021,
	title = {Do {External} {Threats} {Unite} or {Divide}? {Security} {Crises}, {Rivalries}, and {Polarization} in {American} {Foreign} {Policy}},
	volume = {75},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {Do {External} {Threats} {Unite} or {Divide}?},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818321000175/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818321000175},
	abstract = {Abstract
            A common explanation for the increasing polarization in contemporary American foreign policy is the absence of external threat. I identify two mechanisms through which threats could reduce polarization: by revealing information about an adversary that elicits a bipartisan response from policymakers (information mechanism) and by heightening the salience of national relative to partisan identity (identity mechanism). To evaluate the information mechanism, study 1 uses computational text analysis of congressional speeches to explore whether security threats reduce partisanship in attitudes toward foreign adversaries. To evaluate the identity mechanism, study 2 uses public opinion polls to assess whether threats reduce affective polarization among the public. Study 3 tests both mechanisms in a survey experiment that heightens a security threat from China. I find that the external threat hypothesis has limited ability to explain either polarization in US foreign policy or affective polarization among the American public. Instead, responses to external threats reflect the domestic political environment in which they are introduced. The findings cast doubt on predictions that new foreign threats will inherently create partisan unity.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-04-14},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Myrick, Rachel},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {921--958},
}

@incollection{Zarakol_2022,
	address = {Cambridge},
	series = {{LSE} international studies},
	title = {What is the {East}?: {Theorising} {Sovereignty} and {World} {Orders} in {Asia} and {Eurasia}},
	booktitle = {Before the {West}: {The} {Rise} and {Fall} of {Eastern} {World} {Orders}},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Zarakol, Ayşe},
	year = {2022},
	pages = {1--44},
}

@incollection{morrisOriginsUnitedNations2018,
	title = {Origins of the {United} {Nations}},
	isbn = {978-0-19-880316-4},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/27974/chapter/211621378},
	abstract = {This chapter analyzes the transformational journey that plans for the United Nations undertook from summer 1941 to the San Francisco Conference of 1945 at which the UN Charter was agreed. Prior to the conference, the ‘Big Three’ great powers of the day—the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom—often struggled to establish the common ground on which the UN’s success would depend. However, their debates were only the start of the diplomatic travails which would eventually lead to the establishment of the world organization that we know today. Once gathered at San Francisco, the fifty delegations spent the next two months locked in debate over issues such as the role of international law; the relationship between the General Assembly and Security Council; the permanent members’ veto; and Charter amendment. One of modern history’s most important diplomatic events, its outcome continues to resonate through world politics.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-04-15},
	booktitle = {The {Oxford} {Handbook} on the {United} {Nations}},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Morris, Justin},
	editor = {Weiss, Thomas G. and Daws, Sam},
	collaborator = {Morris, Justin},
	month = jun,
	year = {2018},
	doi = {10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198803164.013.2},
	pages = {40--58},
}

@incollection{weissUnitedNationsContinuity2018,
	title = {The {United} {Nations}: {Continuity} and {Change}},
	isbn = {978-0-19-880316-4},
	shorttitle = {The {United} {Nations}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/edited-volume/27974/chapter/211620135},
	abstract = {This chapter makes the case for greater analytical precision and historical reflection about the balance between change and continuity within the United Nations since its founding in 1945. The most pertinent changes fall under four headings: the emergence of new threats and new technological opportunities; the increasing role of non-state actors; the reformulation of state sovereignty; and the emergence of a multipolar world. This chapter examines the nature and role of each of these in today’s international system and urges readers to keep in mind three distinct analytical problems: defining the nature of change; determining the meaning of success and failure; and tracking the ups-and-downs in world politics. It also introduces the forty-four chapters that follow in
              The Oxford Handbook on the United Nations
              .},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-04-15},
	booktitle = {The {Oxford} {Handbook} on the {United} {Nations}},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Weiss, Thomas G. and Daws, Sam},
	editor = {Weiss, Thomas G. and Daws, Sam},
	collaborator = {Weiss, Thomas G. and Daws, Sam},
	month = jun,
	year = {2018},
	doi = {10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198803164.013.1},
	pages = {2--40},
}

@book{teschkeMyth1648Class2009,
	address = {London New York},
	edition = {Paperback edition},
	title = {The myth of 1648: class, geopolitics, and the making of modern international relations},
	isbn = {978-1-84467-372-8},
	shorttitle = {The myth of 1648},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Verso},
	author = {Teschke, Benno},
	year = {2009},
	annote = {Teilw. zugl.: London, School of Economics and Political Science, Diss},
	file = {Table of Contents PDF:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/C7FDEDZ6/Teschke - 2009 - The myth of 1648 class, geopolitics, and the maki.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{sharmanGlobalSlaveryMaking2023,
	title = {Global {Slavery} in the {Making} of {States} and {International} {Orders}},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0003055423000424/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055423000424},
	abstract = {Despite having key implications for fundamental political science questions, slavery as a global phenomenon has received little attention in the field. We argue that slavery played an important role in state-building and international order formation. To counter a historical U.S./Atlantic bias, we draw evidence mostly from the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. We identify two slave-based paths to state construction. A “slaves as the state” logic saw slave soldiers and administrators used to overcome the constraints of indirect rule in centralizing power. In a “slaves under the state” model the economy was based on slave production, itself underpinned by institutionalized state coercion. Norms often prohibited enslavement within communities, thus externalizing demand. This led to militarized slaving, and fostered increasingly long-distance trade in slaves. The combination of these normative, military, and commercial factors formed international slaving orders.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-04-15},
	journal = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Sharman, J.C. and Zarakol, Ayşe},
	month = jun,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {1--13},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/STHC4UEY/Sharman and Zarakol - 2023 - Global Slavery in the Making of States and Interna.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{zvobgo2020race,
	title = {Race is critical to the field of international relations},
	volume = {237},
	url = {https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/19/why-race-matters-international-relations-ir/},
	journal = {Foreign Policy},
	author = {Zvobgo, Kelebogile and Loken, Meredith},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {11--13},
}

@incollection{buzanGreatPowersEnvironmental2022,
	title = {Great {Powers} and {Environmental} {Responsibilities}: {A} {Conceptual} {Framework}},
	isbn = {978-0-19-886602-2 978-0-19-189834-1},
	shorttitle = {Great {Powers} and {Environmental} {Responsibilities}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/book/38779/chapter/337593137},
	abstract = {This chapter develops a theoretical and conceptual framework for the study of great powers and great power responsibility in the international politics of climate change. It introduces the two main approaches—material and social—with which International Relations scholars have defined great powers and reviews some of the ambiguities in the great power concept. It explores the ongoing transformations in the international system that have changed our understanding of the role that great powers play and how great power capabilities can be mapped onto special rights and responsibilities in global international society. In a second step, the chapter then explores the role that great powers play in global environmental politics. It sets out a comprehensive understanding of environmental power that covers both its negative and positive uses and discusses what countries count as environmental great powers. The final section explores the question of great power responsibility and whether and how special responsibilities apply to great powers in the environmental field.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-04-17},
	booktitle = {Great {Powers}, {Climate} {Change}, and {Global} {Environmental} {Responsibilities}},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Buzan, Barry and Falkner, Robert},
	collaborator = {Buzan, Barry and Falkner, Robert},
	month = jan,
	year = {2022},
	doi = {10.1093/oso/9780198866022.003.0002},
	pages = {13--48},
}

@article{tourinhoCoConstitutionOrder2021,
	title = {The {Co}-{Constitution} of {Order}},
	volume = {75},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818320000466/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818320000466},
	abstract = {Abstract
            The idea of liberal international order as a world order is understood to be constituted as a result of disproportionate Anglo-American influences. This is in line with much of international relations (IR) theory, which typically characterizes the emergence of order as resulting from the diffusion or imposition of norms and institutions from the world's centers of power. This article argues otherwise, its premise being that the international order founded on sovereign equal nation-states was co-constituted as well by the influence of relatively weak actors through decentralized processes of contestation over core international norms. Drawing on international relations, history, and law, this article outlines a framework to interpret the actions and mechanisms by which supposedly weak actors shaped international order. It concisely traces the constitution of order as based on its fundamental norms and assesses the implications of the argument for the current crisis of liberal order, as well as IR theory more broadly, laying out a research agenda for the future.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-04-17},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Tourinho, Marcos},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {258--281},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/NPP776W8/Tourinho - 2021 - The Co-Constitution of Order.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{kissingerWorldOrderReflections2014,
	address = {London},
	title = {World {Order}: {Reflections} on the {Character} of {Nations} and the {Course} of {History}},
	isbn = {978-0-241-00427-2 978-0-241-00426-5},
	shorttitle = {World order},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Lane, Penguin},
	author = {Kissinger, Henry},
	year = {2014},
	annote = {Includes bibliographical references and index},
}

@article{saundersElitesMakingBreaking2022,
	title = {Elites in the {Making} and {Breaking} of {Foreign} {Policy}},
	volume = {25},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},
	issn = {1094-2939, 1545-1577},
	url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041719-103330},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-polisci-041719-103330},
	abstract = {Scholarship on elites and foreign policy has made important advances in identifying who elites are, what elites want, and how elites influence foreign policy. This review assesses these advances, focusing on the tension between elites’ expertise, on the one hand, and resentment of elites as selfish or unrepresentative of the people's interests, on the other. What remains missing in the literature on elites and foreign policy are the dynamics of elite politics. The same elites can behave very differently in different settings, and elites frequently do not get what they want on foreign policy despite strong preferences. To understand this variation, we need more research on three kinds of elite politics: how elites attain their positions; their incentives once they arrive in those positions; and how elites relate to each other and to mass publics. Without attending to elite politics, we miss important sources of state behavior.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-04-29},
	journal = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Saunders, Elizabeth N.},
	month = may,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {219--240},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/7M3CLRHC/Saunders - 2022 - Elites in the Making and Breaking of Foreign Polic.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{barnhartSuffragistPeace2020,
	title = {The {Suffragist} {Peace}},
	volume = {74},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818320000508/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818320000508},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Preferences for conflict and cooperation are systematically different for men and women: across a variety of contexts, women generally prefer more peaceful options and are less supportive of making threats and initiating conflict. But how do these preferences affect states’ decisions for war and patterns of conflict at the international level, such as the democratic peace? Women have increasingly participated in political decision making over the last century because of suffragist movements. But although there is a large body of research on the democratic peace, the role of women's suffrage has gone unexplored. Drawing on theory, a meta-analysis of survey experiments in international relations, and analysis of crossnational conflict data, we show how features of women's preferences about the use of force translate into specific patterns of international conflict. When empowered by democratic institutions and suffrage, women's more pacific preferences generate a dyadic democratic peace (i.e., between democracies), as well as a monadic peace. Our analysis supports the view that the enfranchisement of women is essential for the democratic peace.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-04-29},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Barnhart, Joslyn N. and Trager, Robert F. and Saunders, Elizabeth N. and Dafoe, Allan},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {633--670},
}

@article{meyerBureaucratsPassionatePublic2014,
	title = {Of bureaucrats and passionate public managers: {Institutional} logics, executive identities, and public service motivation},
	volume = {92},
	issn = {0033-3298, 1467-9299},
	shorttitle = {{OF} {BUREAUCRATS} {AND} {PASSIONATE} {PUBLIC} {MANAGERS}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9299.2012.02105.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9299.2012.02105.x},
	abstract = {Over recent decades, a number of managerial reform initiatives in continental Europe have aimed at moving away from the traditional Weberian model of public administration. Such shifting bases of legitimacy are brought about by changes in the institutional logics in place, which not only provide frames of reference but also social identities and vocabularies of motive for the actors in the field. In this article, we approach the expanding research on public service motivation (
              PSM
              ) by employing an institutional prism. Based on an executive survey in a continental European context, we examine the assumption that high
              PSM
              is associated with the traditional ethos and social identity in the public sector. What we find is that a Weberian legalistic‐bureaucratic logic supports neither a high attraction to policy‐making nor a high level of compassion. A managerial orientation, on the other hand, entails significantly higher scores on these two dimensions, as well as on overall
              PSM
              .},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-04-29},
	journal = {Public Administration},
	author = {Meyer, Renate E. and Egger‐Peitler, Isabell and Höllerer, Markus A. and Hammerschmid, Gerhard},
	month = dec,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {861--885},
}

@article{perry1990motivational,
	title = {The motivational bases of public service},
	volume = {50},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Public administration review},
	author = {Perry, James L. and Wise, Lois Recascino},
	year = {1990},
	note = {Publisher: American Society for Public Administration},
	pages = {367--373},
}

@article{perryRevisitingMotivationalBases2010,
	title = {Revisiting the {Motivational} {Bases} of {Public} {Service}: {Twenty} {Years} of {Research} and an {Agenda} for the {Future}},
	volume = {70},
	copyright = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions\#vor},
	issn = {0033-3352, 1540-6210},
	shorttitle = {Revisiting the {Motivational} {Bases} of {Public} {Service}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2010.02196.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1540-6210.2010.02196.x},
	abstract = {How has research regarding public service motivation evolved since James L. Perry and Lois Recascino Wise published their essay “The Motivational Bases of Public Service” 20 years ago? The authors assess subsequent studies in public administration and in social and behavioral sciences as well as evolving definitions of public service motivation. What have we learned about public service motivation during the last two decades? What gaps in our understanding and knowledge have appeared with respect to the three propositions offered by Perry and Wise? This essay charts new directions for public service motivation scholarship to help clarify current research questions, advance comparative research, and enhance our overall understanding of individuals’ public service motives.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2024-04-29},
	journal = {Public Administration Review},
	author = {Perry, James L. and Hondeghem, Annie and Wise, Lois Recascino},
	month = sep,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {681--690},
}

@book{waltHellGoodIntentions2018,
	address = {New York},
	title = {The {Hell} of good intentions: {America}'s foreign policy elite and the decline of {U}.{S}. primacy},
	isbn = {978-0-374-28003-1},
	shorttitle = {The {Hell} of good intentions},
	publisher = {Farrar, Straus and Giroux},
	author = {Walt, Stephen M.},
	year = {2018},
	keywords = {1989-, Foreign relations, United States, Political consultants},
	annote = {A dismal record -- Why liberal hegemony failed -- Defining the "blob" : what is the "foreign policy community"? -- Selling a failing foreign policy -- Is anyone accountable? -- How not to fix U.S. foreign policy -- A better way},
}

@book{gilpinWarChangeWorld1981,
	address = {Cambridge},
	title = {War and {Change} in {World} {Politics}},
	isbn = {978-0-511-66426-7},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Gilpin, Robert},
	year = {1981},
	note = {OCLC: 776965675},
}

@incollection{krasnerWestphaliaAllThat1993,
	address = {Ithaca, NY},
	title = {Westphalia and {All} {That}},
	isbn = {978-1-5017-2499-2},
	url = {https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.7591/9781501724992-011/html},
	urldate = {2024-05-14},
	booktitle = {Ideas and {Foreign} {Policy}},
	publisher = {Cornell University Press},
	author = {Krasner, Stephen D.},
	editor = {Goldstein, Judith and Keohane, Robert O.},
	year = {1993},
	doi = {10.7591/9781501724992-011},
	pages = {235--264},
}

@article{littleMeasuringDemocraticBacksliding2024,
	title = {Measuring {Democratic} {Backsliding}},
	volume = {57},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0},
	issn = {1049-0965, 1537-5935},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S104909652300063X/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S104909652300063X},
	abstract = {ABSTRACT
            Despite the general narrative that the world is in a period of democratic decline, there have been surprisingly few empirical studies that assess whether this is systematically true. Most existing studies of global backsliding are based largely if not entirely on subjective indicators that rely on expert coder judgment. Our study surveys objective indicators of democracy (e.g., incumbent performance in elections) and finds little evidence of global democratic decline during the past decade. To explain the discrepancy in trends between expert-coded and objective indicators, we consider the role of coder bias and leaders strategically using more subtle undemocratic action. Although we cannot rule out the possibility that the world is becoming less democratic exclusively in ways that require subjective judgment to detect, this claim is not justified by existing evidence.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-05-20},
	journal = {PS: Political Science \& Politics},
	author = {Little, Andrew T. and Meng, Anne},
	month = apr,
	year = {2024},
	pages = {149--161},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/C79MQZFY/Little and Meng - 2024 - Measuring Democratic Backsliding.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{kimmelThreeCriteriaUse1957,
	title = {Three criteria for the use of one-tailed tests.},
	volume = {54},
	issn = {1939-1455, 0033-2909},
	url = {https://doi.apa.org/doi/10.1037/h0046737},
	doi = {10.1037/h0046737},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-05-23},
	journal = {Psychological Bulletin},
	author = {Kimmel, Herbert D.},
	year = {1957},
	pages = {351--353},
}

@article{ikenberryThreeWorldsWest2024,
	title = {Three {Worlds}: the {West}, {East} and {South} and the competition to shape global order},
	volume = {100},
	copyright = {https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open\_access/funder\_policies/chorus/standard\_publication\_model},
	issn = {0020-5850, 1468-2346},
	shorttitle = {Three {Worlds}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/100/1/121/7506681},
	doi = {10.1093/ia/iiad284},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Among the many impacts of Russia's war on Ukraine, the most consequential may be in pushing the world in the direction of Three Worlds—the global West, the global East and the global South. One is led by the United States and Europe, the second by China and Russia, and the third by an amorphous grouping of non-western developing nations. These Three Worlds are not blocs or coherent negotiating groups, but loose, constructed and evolving global factions. This article makes four arguments. First, the Three Worlds system has the makings of a fairly durable pattern of global order, shaping struggles over rules and institutions. Second, the Three Worlds system will encourage a ‘creative’ politics of global order-building. The global West and global East will have incentives to compete for the support and cooperation of the global South. Third, there are deep principles of world order that provide a foundation for the Three Worlds competition. Finally, if the global West is to remain at the center of world order in the decades ahead, it will need to accommodate both the global East and the global South, and adapt itself to a more pluralistic world. But in the competition with the global East for the support of the global South, it has the advantage. The global South's critique of the global West is not that it offers the wrong pathway to modernity, but that it has not lived up to its principles or shared sufficiently the material fruits of liberal modernity.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-05-28},
	journal = {International Affairs},
	author = {Ikenberry, G John},
	month = jan,
	year = {2024},
	pages = {121--138},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/P8UE2INN/Ikenberry - 2024 - Three Worlds the West, East and South and the com.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{chinAfricanCoupsCOVID192023,
	title = {African coups in the {COVID}-19 era: {A} current history},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {2673-3145},
	shorttitle = {African coups in the {COVID}-19 era},
	url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpos.2023.1077945/full},
	doi = {10.3389/fpos.2023.1077945},
	abstract = {What explains the explosion of coup activity in Africa over the last few years? To answer this question, this article presents narrative summaries—a current history—of all eleven coups attempts in Africa between August 2020 and November 2022. We then discuss the most relevant causal explanations for the observed increase in coup frequency in Africa in this period. Though we find relatively little evidence of direct coup diffusion or democratic backsliding as coup triggers, our findings suggest that coup-struck African countries over the last few years are disproportionately poor, have a recent history of coups, and face ongoing dilemmas of democratic consolidation. Ongoing Islamist insurgencies may have helped precipitate recent coups in West Africa but not elsewhere.},
	urldate = {2024-06-02},
	journal = {Frontiers in Political Science},
	author = {Chin, John J. and Kirkpatrick, Jessica},
	month = mar,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {1077945},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/KN4IM46I/Chin and Kirkpatrick - 2023 - African coups in the COVID-19 era A current histo.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{buzasRacismAntiracismLiberal2021,
	title = {Racism and {Antiracism} in the {Liberal} {International} {Order}},
	volume = {75},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818320000521/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818320000521},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Formal racial equality is a key aspect of the current Liberal International Order (LIO). It is subject to two main challenges: resurgent racial nationalism and substantive racial inequality. Combining work in International Relations with interdisciplinary studies on race, I submit that these challenges are the latest iteration of struggles between two transnational coalitions over the LIO's central racial provisions, which I call racial diversity regimes (RDRs). The traditional coalition has historically favored RDRs based on racial inequality and racial nationalism. The transformative coalition has favored RDRs based on racial equality and nonracial nationalism. I illustrate the argument by tracing the development of the liberal order's RDR as a function of intercoalitional struggles from one based on racial nationalism and inequality in 1919 to the current regime based on nonracial nationalism and limited equality. Today, racial nationalists belong to the traditional coalition and critics of racial inequality are part of the transformative coalition. The stakes of their struggles are high because they will determine whether we will live in a more racist or a more antiracist world. This article articulates a comprehensive framework that places race at the heart of the liberal order, offers the novel concept of “embedded racism” to capture how sovereignty shields domestic racism from foreign interference, and proposes an agenda for mainstream International Relations that takes race seriously.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-06-05},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Búzás, Zoltán I.},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {440--463},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/DIW9YA5Y/Búzás - 2021 - Racism and Antiracism in the Liberal International.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{farrellJanusFaceLiberal2021,
	title = {The {Janus} {Face} of the {Liberal} {International} {Information} {Order}: {When} {Global} {Institutions} {Are} {Self}-{Undermining}},
	volume = {75},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {The {Janus} {Face} of the {Liberal} {International} {Information} {Order}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818320000302/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818320000302},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Scholars and policymakers long believed that norms of global information openness and private-sector governance helped to sustain and promote liberalism. These norms are being increasingly contested within liberal democracies. In this article, we argue that a key source of debate over the Liberal International Information Order (LIIO), a sub-order of the Liberal International Order (LIO), is generated internally by “self-undermining feedback effects,” that is, mechanisms through which institutional arrangements undermine their own political conditions of survival over time. Empirically, we demonstrate how global governance of the Internet, transnational disinformation campaigns, and domestic information governance interact to sow the seeds of this contention. In particular, illiberal states converted norms of openness into a vector of attack, unsettling political bargains in liberal states concerning the LIIO. More generally, we set out a broader research agenda to show how the international relations discipline might better understand institutional change as well as the informational aspects of the current crisis in the LIO.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-06-05},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Farrell, Henry and Newman, Abraham L.},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {333--358},
}

@article{weissDomesticPoliticsChina2021,
	title = {Domestic {Politics}, {China}'s {Rise}, and the {Future} of the {Liberal} {International} {Order}},
	volume = {75},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S002081832000048X/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S002081832000048X},
	abstract = {Abstract
            With the future of liberal internationalism in question, how will China's growing power and influence reshape world politics? We argue that views of the Liberal International Order (LIO) as integrative and resilient have been too optimistic for two reasons. First, China's ability to profit from within the system has shaken the domestic consensus in the United States on preserving the existing LIO. Second, features of Chinese Communist Party rule chafe against many of the fundamental principles of the LIO, but could coexist with a return to Westphalian principles and markets that are embedded in domestic systems of control. How, then, do authoritarian states like China pick and choose how to engage with key institutions and norms within the LIO? We propose a framework that highlights two domestic variables—centrality and heterogeneity—and their implications for China's international behavior. We illustrate the framework with examples from China's approach to climate change, trade and exchange rates, Internet governance, territorial sovereignty, arms control, and humanitarian intervention. Finally, we conclude by considering what alternative versions of international order might emerge as China's influence grows.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-06-05},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Weiss, Jessica Chen and Wallace, Jeremy L.},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {635--664},
}

@article{kentikelenisLegitimacyChallengesLiberal2021a,
	title = {Legitimacy challenges to the liberal world order: {Evidence} from {United} {Nations} speeches, 1970–2018},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1559-7431, 1559-744X},
	shorttitle = {Legitimacy challenges to the liberal world order},
	url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11558-020-09404-y},
	doi = {10.1007/s11558-020-09404-y},
	abstract = {Abstract
            The liberal international economic order has been facing high-profile legitimacy challenges in recent years. This article puts these challenges in historical context through a systematic analysis of rhetorical challenges towards both the order per se and specific global economic institutions. Drawing on Albert Hirschman’s classic typology of exit, voice and loyalty, we coded leaders’ speeches in the General Debate at the UN General Assembly between 1970 and 2018 as articulating intentions to abandon elements of the order, challenges or calls for reform, unequivocal support, or factual mentions of cooperation. Surprisingly, we find that explicit criticisms towards the liberal order are at an all-time low and that exit threats remain rare. An analysis of the historical evolution of criticisms to global economic institutions reveals a move away from the Cold War insider-outsider conflict towards insider contestation. For example, we find that as countries’ economies become more open, their leaders expressed more support for global economic institutions during the Cold War but less support since. Finally, we demonstrate consistency between the public policy positions leaders announce in UNGA General Debate speeches and their government positions on consequential reform debates on debt relief.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-06-05},
	journal = {The Review of International Organizations},
	author = {Kentikelenis, Alexander and Voeten, Erik},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {721--754},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/E72CERJG/Kentikelenis and Voeten - 2021 - Legitimacy challenges to the liberal world order .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{ritchieHegemonicNuclearOrder2019,
	title = {A hegemonic nuclear order: {Understanding} the {Ban} {Treaty} and the power politics of nuclear weapons},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {1352-3260, 1743-8764},
	shorttitle = {A hegemonic nuclear order},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13523260.2019.1571852},
	doi = {10.1080/13523260.2019.1571852},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-06-12},
	journal = {Contemporary Security Policy},
	author = {Ritchie, Nick},
	month = oct,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {409--434},
}

@article{allcottEffectsFacebookInstagram2024,
	title = {The effects of {Facebook} and {Instagram} on the 2020 election: {A} deactivation experiment},
	volume = {121},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	shorttitle = {The effects of {Facebook} and {Instagram} on the 2020 election},
	url = {https://pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2321584121},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.2321584121},
	abstract = {We study the effect of Facebook and Instagram access on political beliefs, attitudes, and behavior by randomizing a subset of 19,857 Facebook users and 15,585 Instagram users to deactivate their accounts for 6 wk before the 2020 U.S. election. We report four key findings. First, both Facebook and Instagram deactivation reduced an index of political participation (driven mainly by reduced participation online). Second, Facebook deactivation had no significant effect on an index of knowledge, but secondary analyses suggest that it reduced knowledge of general news while possibly also decreasing belief in misinformation circulating online. Third, Facebook deactivation may have reduced self-reported net votes for Trump, though this effect does not meet our preregistered significance threshold. Finally, the effects of both Facebook and Instagram deactivation on affective and issue polarization, perceived legitimacy of the election, candidate favorability, and voter turnout were all precisely estimated and close to zero.},
	language = {en},
	number = {21},
	urldate = {2024-06-18},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Allcott, Hunt and Gentzkow, Matthew and Mason, Winter and Wilkins, Arjun and Barberá, Pablo and Brown, Taylor and Cisneros, Juan Carlos and Crespo-Tenorio, Adriana and Dimmery, Drew and Freelon, Deen and González-Bailón, Sandra and Guess, Andrew M. and Kim, Young Mie and Lazer, David and Malhotra, Neil and Moehler, Devra and Nair-Desai, Sameer and Nait El Barj, Houda and Nyhan, Brendan and Paixao De Queiroz, Ana Carolina and Pan, Jennifer and Settle, Jaime and Thorson, Emily and Tromble, Rebekah and Velasco Rivera, Carlos and Wittenbrink, Benjamin and Wojcieszak, Magdalena and Zahedian, Saam and Franco, Annie and Kiewiet De Jonge, Chad and Stroud, Natalie Jomini and Tucker, Joshua A.},
	month = may,
	year = {2024},
	pages = {e2321584121},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/BPPJN9HA/Allcott et al. - 2024 - The effects of Facebook and Instagram on the 2020 .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{hirschmanExitVoiceLoyalty1970,
	address = {Cambridge, Massachusetts London},
	title = {Exit, voice, and loyalty: responses to decline in firms, organizations, and states},
	isbn = {978-0-674-27650-5 978-0-674-27660-4},
	shorttitle = {Exit, voice, and loyalty},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Harvard University Press},
	author = {Hirschman, Albert O.},
	year = {1970},
	annote = {Introduction and doctrinal background -- Exit -- Voice -- A special difficulty in combining exit and voice -- How monopoly can be comforted by competition -- On spatial duopoly and the dynamics of two-party systems -- A theory of loyalty -- Exit and voice in American ideology and practice -- The elusive mix of exit and voice},
}

@article{eichenbergGenderDifferenceAmerican2016,
	title = {Gender {Difference} in {American} {Public} {Opinion} on the {Use} of {Military} {Force}, 1982–2013},
	volume = {60},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/isq/sqv019},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqv019},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-07-01},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Eichenberg, Richard C.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {138--148},
}

@article{lizotteInvestigatingOriginsGender2019,
	title = {Investigating the {Origins} of the {Gender} {Gap} in {Support} for {War}},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {1478-9299, 1478-9302},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1478929917699416},
	doi = {10.1177/1478929917699416},
	abstract = {Gender is an important source of influence on foreign policy attitudes but has received less research attention than it deserves. In the United States, gender differences on support for military interventions average around 8 percent, with women less likely than men to support the use of force. This gap has surfaced in many conflicts, including World War II, the Korean and Vietnam wars, through to the Gulf War and the conflict in Iraq. The existence of a modest though persistent gender difference in support of the use of military force thus arouses considerable interest among political researchers. This piece critically discusses four explanations, the empirical evidence to date, and future directions for studying and testing the origins of this gender gap. The four explanations are economic/political marginalization, feminist identity, Social Role Theory, and value differences.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-07-01},
	journal = {Political Studies Review},
	author = {Lizotte, Mary-Kate},
	month = may,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {124--135},
}

@article{senningerWhichInformationPoliticians2024,
	title = {Which {Information} {Do} {Politicians} {Pay} {Attention} {To}? {Evidence} from a {Field} {Experiment} and {Interviews}},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},
	issn = {0007-1234, 1469-2112},
	shorttitle = {Which {Information} {Do} {Politicians} {Pay} {Attention} {To}?},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S000712342400005X/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S000712342400005X},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Politicians are exposed to a constant flow of information about societal problems. However, they have limited resources and need to prioritize. So, which information should they pay attention to? Previous research identifies four types of information that may matter: public concern about a problem, problem attention by rival parties, news stories about problems, and statistical problem indicators. We are the first to contrast the four types of information through a field experiment with more than 6,000 candidates and multiple elite interviews in Denmark. The candidates received an email invitation to access a specially tailored report that randomly highlighted one of the four types of information. Statistical indicators and public opinion were accessed the most (26.9 per cent and 26.5 per cent of candidates in the two conditions). Our results provide new and important evidence about the types of information politicians consider when addressing societal problems.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-07-01},
	journal = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Senninger, Roman and Seeberg, Henrik B.},
	year = {2024},
	pages = {1--18},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/LU23FWSF/Senninger and Seeberg - 2024 - Which Information Do Politicians Pay Attention To.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{vandermaas-peelerConstructingVictimsSuffering2024,
	title = {Constructing victims: {Suffering} and status in modern world order},
	volume = {50},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0},
	issn = {0260-2105, 1469-9044},
	shorttitle = {Constructing victims},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0260210522000596/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0260210522000596},
	abstract = {Abstract
            What is the basis of status in world order? Status is assumed to come from strength, even if strength is reconfigured to be social and normative, not just material. Status, however, can also come from perceived weakness – it is conferred to those recognised as ‘victims’. We make four theoretical contributions to the scholarship on status in world affairs. First, we examine how the category of victim is produced. Two, we expand the possible sources of status in world affairs by adding the category of victim. Three, focus on victimhood status further demonstrates that status is independent of material power. Lastly, victimhood as status exhibits the paradox that power depends on perceived powerlessness. We illustrate these arguments with three features of victim status in modern international politics: the changing desirability of victim status in Israel, the gendered construction of ideal victim in the Congo, and the hierarchy of victimhood in Bosnia.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-07-09},
	journal = {Review of International Studies},
	author = {Vandermaas-Peeler, Alex and Subotic, Jelena and Barnett, Michael},
	month = jan,
	year = {2024},
	pages = {171--189},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/MEQ2UM3I/Vandermaas-Peeler et al. - 2024 - Constructing victims Suffering and status in mode.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{canes-wroneConditionalNaturePresidential2004,
	title = {The {Conditional} {Nature} of {Presidential} {Responsiveness} to {Public} {Opinion}},
	volume = {48},
	issn = {00925853},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/1519928?origin=crossref},
	doi = {10.2307/1519928},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-07-15},
	journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Canes-Wrone, Brandice and Shotts, Kenneth W.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2004},
	pages = {690},
}

@article{ottatiWhenSelfperceptionsExpertise2015,
	title = {When self-perceptions of expertise increase closed-minded cognition: {The} earned dogmatism effect},
	volume = {61},
	issn = {00221031},
	shorttitle = {When self-perceptions of expertise increase closed-minded cognition},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022103115001006},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jesp.2015.08.003},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-07-15},
	journal = {Journal of Experimental Social Psychology},
	author = {Ottati, Victor and Price, Erika D. and Wilson, Chase and Sumaktoyo, Nathanael},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {131--138},
}

@article{fisherCurseExpertiseWhen2016,
	title = {The {Curse} of {Expertise}: {When} {More} {Knowledge} {Leads} to {Miscalibrated} {Explanatory} {Insight}},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {0364-0213, 1551-6709},
	shorttitle = {The {Curse} of {Expertise}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cogs.12280},
	doi = {10.1111/cogs.12280},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Does expertise within a domain of knowledge predict accurate self‐assessment of the ability to explain topics in that domain? We find that expertise increases confidence in the ability to explain a wide variety of phenomena. However, this confidence is unwarranted; after actually offering full explanations, people are surprised by the limitations in their understanding. For passive expertise (familiar topics), miscalibration is moderated by education; those with more education are accurate in their self‐assessments (Experiment 1). But when those with more education consider topics related to their area of concentrated study (college major), they also display an illusion of understanding (Experiment 2). This “curse of expertise” is explained by a failure to recognize the amount of detailed information that had been forgotten (Experiment 3). While expertise can sometimes lead to accurate self‐knowledge, it can also create illusions of competence.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2024-07-15},
	journal = {Cognitive Science},
	author = {Fisher, Matthew and Keil, Frank C.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {1251--1269},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/KZNWEITX/Fisher and Keil - 2016 - The Curse of Expertise When More Knowledge Leads .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{tetlockExpertPoliticalJudgment2006,
	address = {Princeton, NJ},
	title = {Expert political judgment: {How} good is it? {How} can we know?},
	isbn = {978-0-691-12871-9},
	shorttitle = {Expert political judgment},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Tetlock, Philip E.},
	year = {2006},
	annote = {Includes bibliographical references and index},
	file = {Table of Contents PDF:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/QKHFW9UX/Tetlock - 2006 - Expert political judgment How good is it How can.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{pereiraExpertiseParadoxHow2024,
	title = {The {Expertise} {Paradox}: {How} {Policy} {Expertise} {Can} {Hinder} {Responsiveness}},
	volume = {54},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},
	issn = {0007-1234, 1469-2112},
	shorttitle = {The {Expertise} {Paradox}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0007123423000303/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0007123423000303},
	abstract = {Abstract
            We argue that policy expertise constrains the ability of politicians to act on voter preferences. Representatives with more knowledge and experience in a given domain have more confidence in their own issue-specific positions. Enhanced confidence, in turn, may lead politicians to discount opinions they disagree with, producing a distorted image of the electorate. Two experiments with Swedish politicians support this argument. First, officials are more likely to dismiss appeals from voters in their areas of expertise and less likely to accept that opposing views may represent the majority opinion. Consistent with the proposed mechanism, in a second experiment we show that inducing perceptions of expertise increases self-confidence. The results suggest that representatives with more specialized knowledge in a given area may be less capable of acting as delegates in that domain. The study provides a novel explanation for variations in policy responsiveness.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-07-20},
	journal = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Pereira, Miguel M. and Öhberg, Patrik},
	month = apr,
	year = {2024},
	pages = {474--491},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/KDJDDG9I/Pereira and Öhberg - 2024 - The Expertise Paradox How Policy Expertise Can Hi.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{lakensWhenHowDeviate2024,
	title = {When and {How} to {Deviate} {From} a {Preregistration}},
	volume = {10},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0},
	issn = {2474-7394},
	url = {https://online.ucpress.edu/collabra/article/10/1/117094/200749/When-and-How-to-Deviate-From-a-Preregistration},
	doi = {10.1525/collabra.117094},
	abstract = {As the practice of preregistration becomes more common, researchers need guidance in how to report deviations from their preregistered statistical analysis plan. A principled approach to the use of preregistration should not treat all deviations as problematic. Deviations from a preregistered analysis plan can both reduce and increase the severity of a test, as well as increase the validity of inferences. I provide examples of how researchers can present deviations from preregistrations and evaluate the consequences of the deviation when encountering 1) unforeseen events, 2) errors in the preregistration, 3) missing information, 4) violations of untested assumptions, and 5) falsification of auxiliary hypotheses. The current manuscript aims to provide a principled approach to deciding when to deviate from a preregistration and how to report deviations from an error-statistical philosophy grounded in methodological falsificationism. The goal is to help researchers reflect on the consequence of deviations from preregistrations by evaluating the test’s severity and the validity of the inference.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-07-20},
	journal = {Collabra: Psychology},
	author = {Lakens, Daniël},
	month = may,
	year = {2024},
	pages = {117094},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/4TLCJBQZ/Lakens - 2024 - When and How to Deviate From a Preregistration.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{willrothBestLaidPlans2024,
	title = {Best {Laid} {Plans}: {A} {Guide} to {Reporting} {Preregistration} {Deviations}},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {2515-2459, 2515-2467},
	shorttitle = {Best {Laid} {Plans}},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/25152459231213802},
	doi = {10.1177/25152459231213802},
	abstract = {Psychological scientists are increasingly using preregistration as a tool to increase the credibility of research findings. Many of the benefits of preregistration rest on the assumption that preregistered plans are followed perfectly. However, research suggests that this is the exception rather than the norm, and there are many reasons why researchers may deviate from their preregistered plans. Preregistration can still be a valuable tool, even in the presence of deviations, as long as those deviations are well documented and transparently reported. Unfortunately, most preregistration deviations in psychology go unreported or are reported in unsystematic ways. In the current article, we offer a solution to this problem by providing a framework for transparent and standardized reporting of preregistration deviations, which was developed by drawing on our own experiences with preregistration, existing unpublished templates, feedback from colleagues and reviewers, and the results of a survey of 34 psychology-journal editors. This framework provides a clear template for what to do when things do not go as planned. We conclude by encouraging researchers to adopt this framework in their own preregistered research and by suggesting that journals implement structural policies around the transparent reporting of preregistration deviations.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-07-20},
	journal = {Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science},
	author = {Willroth, Emily C. and Atherton, Olivia E.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2024},
	pages = {25152459231213802},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/MI2GINTK/Willroth and Atherton - 2024 - Best Laid Plans A Guide to Reporting Preregistrat.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{coppedge2024v,
	title = {V-{Dem} {Methodology} (v14 – {March} 2024)},
	journal = {V-Dem Working Paper},
	author = {Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Knutsen, Carl Henrik and Lindberg, Staffan I and Teorell, Jan and Marquardt, Kyle L and Medzihorsky, Juraj and Pemstein, Daniel and Fox, Linnea and Gastaldi, Lisa and {others}},
	year = {2024},
}

@book{gertler2016impact,
	title = {Impact {Evaluation} in {Practice}},
	url = {https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/sief-trust-fund/publication/impact-evaluation-in-practice},
	publisher = {World Bank Publications},
	author = {Gertler, Paul J and Martinez, Sebastian and Premand, Patrick and Rawlings, Laura B and Vermeersch, Christel MJ},
	year = {2016},
}

@article{blackwellHowMakeCausal2018,
	title = {How to {Make} {Causal} {Inferences} with {Time}-{Series} {Cross}-{Sectional} {Data} under {Selection} on {Observables}},
	volume = {112},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0003055418000357/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055418000357},
	abstract = {Repeated measurements of the same countries, people, or groups over time are vital to many fields of political science. These measurements, sometimes called time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data, allow researchers to estimate a broad set of causal quantities, including contemporaneous effects and direct effects of lagged treatments. Unfortunately, popular methods for TSCS data can only produce valid inferences for lagged effects under some strong assumptions. In this paper, we use potential outcomes to define causal quantities of interest in these settings and clarify how standard models like the autoregressive distributed lag model can produce biased estimates of these quantities due to post-treatment conditioning. We then describe two estimation strategies that avoid these post-treatment biases—inverse probability weighting and structural nested mean models—and show via simulations that they can outperform standard approaches in small sample settings. We illustrate these methods in a study of how welfare spending affects terrorism.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-07-30},
	journal = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Blackwell, Matthew and Glynn, Adam N.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {1067--1082},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/QT8E2BLQ/Blackwell and Glynn - 2018 - How to Make Causal Inferences with Time-Series Cro.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{weidmannRecentEventsCoding2024,
	title = {Recent {Events} and the {Coding} of {Cross}-{National} {Indicators}},
	volume = {57},
	issn = {0010-4140, 1552-3829},
	url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00104140231193006},
	doi = {10.1177/00104140231193006},
	abstract = {Much research in political science relies on datasets produced by human coders. Many variables included in these datasets are not based on observable facts but rather require a considerable level of human judgment. This project studies the extent to which this judgment is affected by availability bias and how it influences the retrospective coding of historic cases. The analysis uses coder-level data from the V-Dem project, one of the few datasets collecting and releasing codings tagged with timestamps when they were produced. The results show that recent dramatic events in a country just prior to the coding have a small, but visible impact on coder ratings, but primarily for those variables that are directly related to the observed events. The magnitude of this effect, however, is small. This alleviates concerns that prominent events in world politics around the time of coding significantly affect the reliability of cross-national indicators.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2024-08-15},
	journal = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Weidmann, Nils B.},
	month = may,
	year = {2024},
	pages = {921--937},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/N3PSZQUW/Weidmann - 2024 - Recent Events and the Coding of Cross-National Ind.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{marshallPolityIV180019992002,
	title = {Polity {IV}, 1800–1999: {Comments} on {Munck} and {Verkuilen}},
	volume = {35},
	copyright = {http://journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license},
	issn = {0010-4140, 1552-3829},
	shorttitle = {Polity {IV}, 1800-1999},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/001041400203500103},
	doi = {10.1177/001041400203500103},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-08-19},
	journal = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Marshall, Monty G. and Gurr, Ted Robert and Davenport, Christian and Jaggers, Keith},
	month = feb,
	year = {2002},
	pages = {40--45},
}

@article{house2022freedom,
	title = {Freedom in the {World} 2022: the global expansion of authoritarian rule},
	url = {https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2022/global-expansion-authoritarian-rule},
	author = {{Freedom House}},
	year = {2022},
	note = {Publisher: Freedom House},
}

@article{cingranelli2010cingranelli,
	title = {The {Cingranelli} and {Richards} ({CIRI}) human rights data project},
	volume = {32},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Human Rights Quarterly},
	author = {Cingranelli, David L and Richards, David L},
	year = {2010},
	note = {Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press},
	pages = {401--424},
}

@techreport{arel-bundockWDIWorldDevelopment2022,
	type = {manual},
	title = {{WDI}: {World} development indicators and other world bank data},
	url = {https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=WDI},
	author = {Arel-Bundock, Vincent},
	year = {2022},
	annote = {R package version 2.7.8},
}

@article{ucdp/prioUCDPPRIOArmed2024,
	title = {{UCDP}/{PRIO} {Armed} {Conflict} {Dataset}, {V24}.1},
	url = {https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/},
	author = {{UCDP/PRIO}},
	year = {2024},
}

@misc{egerodHowManyEnough2024,
	title = {How many is enough? {Sample} {Size} in {Staggered} {Difference}-in-{Differences} {Designs}},
	copyright = {https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode},
	shorttitle = {How many is enough?},
	url = {https://osf.io/ac5ru},
	doi = {10.31219/osf.io/ac5ru},
	abstract = {In difference-in-differences designs with staggered treatment timing and dynamic treatment effects, the two-way fixed effects estimator fails to recover an interpretable causal estimate. A large number of estimators have been proposed to remedy this issue. The flexibility of these estimators, however, increases their variance. This can lead to statistical tests with low statistical power. As a consequence, small effects are unlikely to be discovered. Additionally, under low power, if a statistically significant estimate is recovered, the estimate is often wrongly signed and/or greatly exaggerated. Using simulations on real-world data on US States, we show that effect sizes of 10 to 15\% are necessary for the recently developed estimators for staggered difference-in-differences to produce statistical tests that achieve 80\% power. Further, conditional on statistical significance, when the intervention generates weak effects, estimators recover the wrong sign in approximately 10\% of the simulations and overestimate the true effect by several hundred percent on average. We use data on publicly traded firms to investigate which sample size is needed for a staggered difference-in-differences analysis to be informative. We find that depending on the dependent variable and effect size, even the most efficient estimators generally need more than 250 units to achieve reasonable power. We conclude with a discussion of how this type of ‘design analysis’ ought to be used by researchers before estimating staggered difference-in-differences models. We also discuss how power may under certain conditions be improved if a study is re-designed, e.g., by examining county-level outcomes with state-level interventions.},
	urldate = {2024-08-20},
	author = {Egerod, Benjamin and Hollenbach, Florian M},
	month = jun,
	year = {2024},
}

@article{earlyStillUnjustJust2018,
	title = {Still {Unjust}, {Just} in {Different} {Ways}: {How} {Targeted} {Sanctions} {Fall} {Short} of {Just} {War} {Theory}'s {Principles} {Get} access {Arrow}},
	volume = {21},
	doi = {10.1093/isr/viy012},
	number = {1},
	journal = {International Studies Review},
	author = {Early, Bryan R. and Schulzke, Marcus},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {57--80},
}

@article{steele2013revenge,
	title = {Revenge, affect, and just war},
	journal = {Just War: Authority, Tradition, and Practice},
	author = {Steele, Brent J},
	editor = {Lang, Anthony F. and O'Driscoll, Cian and Williams},
	year = {2013},
	note = {Publisher: Georgetown University Press Washington, DC},
	pages = {197--212},
}

@article{lowenheimRevengeInternationalPolitics2008,
	title = {Revenge in {International} {Politics}},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {0963-6412, 1556-1852},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636410802508055},
	doi = {10.1080/09636410802508055},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-08-29},
	journal = {Security Studies},
	author = {Löwenheim, Oded and Heimann, Gadi},
	month = dec,
	year = {2008},
	pages = {685--724},
}

@article{boyleRemakingWorldAmerica2021,
	title = {Remaking the {World} in {America}'s {Image}: {Surprise}, {Strategic} {Culture}, and the {American} {Ways} of {Intervention}},
	volume = {17},
	copyright = {https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open\_access/funder\_policies/chorus/standard\_publication\_model},
	issn = {1743-8586, 1743-8594},
	shorttitle = {Remaking the {World} in {America}'s {Image}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/fpa/article/doi/10.1093/fpa/oraa020/6111486},
	doi = {10.1093/fpa/oraa020},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Why does the United States seek to export its own political and economic system as part of an intervention? We argue that the United States has an ideologically inflected strategic culture which has yielded two “ways” of intervention over time. The limited model is cost-conscious and cedes control over the future of the state to local actors provided that they guarantee open markets and good government. The vindicationist model involves the United States paying costs to remake another society in its own image. We argue that the vindicationist way of intervention is activated by specific types of strategic surprises, which cause policymakers to react by gambling on interventions to remake another society. To empirically investigate this claim, we examine the record of America's major interventions from 1946 to 2005 and present two contrasting case studies of Cold War interventions in Lebanon and the Dominican Republic.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-08-29},
	journal = {Foreign Policy Analysis},
	author = {Boyle, Michael J and Lang, Anthony F},
	month = jan,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {oraa020},
	file = {Accepted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/TP34SHXY/Boyle and Lang - 2021 - Remaking the World in America's Image Surprise, S.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{peezReexaminingEffectsWestern2024,
	title = {Re-examining the {Effects} of {Western} {Sanctions} on {Democracy} and {Human} {Rights} in the 21st {Century}},
	copyright = {https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode},
	doi = {10.31219/osf.io/ge7at},
	abstract = {Whether and how severely imposed economic sanctions affect ordinary citizens in targeted countries is a central question of International Relations (IR) research on sanctions. Although frequently intended to bring about improvements to democracy and human rights, their record of doing so has historically been mixed at best. However, many of the canonical quantitative studies on this critical issue only cover the 1980s and 1990s. Since then, sanctions practice has undergone major innovations in design and implementation following debates on unintended consequences and humanitarian harm. Given these significant changes towards 'targeted' or 'smart' sanctions, it stands to reason that sanctions may today be achieving their intended purposes. Furthermore, more current and precise data on sanctions, human rights, and democracy has since been published and new methods for causal inference using observational data have been developed. I take up these policy-related and methodological innovations to re-examine the effects of Western sanctions explicitly intended to improve democracy and human rights. I study this type of sanctions in the 1990–2021 timeframe by applying matching and weighting to account for the strategic selection process of sanctions imposition. This builds on work examining coups and fraudulent elections as key ‘trigger events.’ I then estimate the effects of such sanctions on human rights and democracy using difference-in-differences analysis. The results suggest that the negative effects of sanctions on human rights and democracy persist in the 21st century. This provides an important update to the empirical literature on the subject. As sanctions continue to grow in popularity and usage, policymakers must continue devoting attention to minimizing the civilian harm they often cause. Beyond these substantive contribution, this paper presents a template for replicating and extending country-year research in IR in general.},
	urldate = {2024-08-29},
	journal = {OSF Preprints},
	author = {Peez, Anton},
	month = aug,
	year = {2024},
}

@article{peezEconomicSanctionsRevenge2024,
	title = {Economic {Sanctions} as {Revenge}: {Experimental} {Evidence} from the 2022–23 {Western} {Sanctions} against {Russia}},
	journal = {Working Paper (presented at APSA 2024)},
	author = {Peez, Anton and Bethke, Felix S.},
	year = {2024},
}

@article{akcinarogluEffectsRivalryRivalry2014,
	title = {The {Effects} of {Rivalry} on {Rivalry}: {Accommodation} and the {Management} of {Threats}},
	volume = {10},
	copyright = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm\_license\_1.1},
	issn = {17438586},
	shorttitle = {The {Effects} of {Rivalry} on {Rivalry}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/fpa/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/fpa.12007},
	doi = {10.1111/fpa.12007},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {Foreign Policy Analysis},
	author = {Akcinaroglu, Seden and Radziszewski, Elizabeth and Diehl, Paul F.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {81--100},
}

@article{bennettSecurityBargainingEnd1996a,
	title = {Security, {Bargaining}, and the {End} of {Interstate} {Rivalry}},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {00208833},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article-lookup/doi/10.2307/2600955},
	doi = {10.2307/2600955},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Bennett, D. Scott},
	month = jun,
	year = {1996},
	pages = {157},
}

@article{bennettDemocracyRegimeChange1997,
	title = {Democracy, regime change, and rivalry termination},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {0305-0629, 1547-7444},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03050629708434898},
	doi = {10.1080/03050629708434898},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {International Interactions},
	author = {Bennett, D. Scott},
	month = apr,
	year = {1997},
	pages = {369--397},
}

@article{bennettIntegratingTestingModels1998,
	title = {Integrating and {Testing} {Models} of {Rivalry} {Duration}},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {00925853},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/2991855?origin=crossref},
	doi = {10.2307/2991855},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Bennett, D. Scott},
	month = oct,
	year = {1998},
	pages = {1200},
}

@book{bouldingStablePeace1978,
	address = {Austin},
	title = {Stable peace},
	isbn = {978-0-292-76448-4},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Univ. of Texas Pr},
	author = {Boulding, Kenneth Ewart},
	year = {1978},
}

@article{copelandTradeExpectationsOutbreak1999,
	title = {Trade expectations and the outbreak of peace: {Détente} 1970–74 and the end of the cold war 1985–91},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {0963-6412, 1556-1852},
	shorttitle = {Trade expectations and the outbreak of peace},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636419908429394},
	doi = {10.1080/09636419908429394},
	language = {en},
	number = {1-2},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {Security Studies},
	author = {Copeland, Dale C.},
	month = sep,
	year = {1999},
	pages = {15--58},
}

@book{diehlWarPeaceInternational2001,
	address = {Ann Arbor},
	title = {War and peace in international rivalry},
	isbn = {978-0-472-08848-5},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Univ. of Michigan Press},
	author = {Diehl, Paul F. and Goertz, Gary},
	year = {2001},
	annote = {Includes bibliographical references and index},
}

@book{ripsmanPeacemakingPeaceEnding2016,
	address = {Ithaca (N.Y.)},
	series = {Cornell studies in security affairs},
	title = {Peacemaking from above, peace from below: ending conflict between regional rivals},
	isbn = {978-1-5017-0247-1},
	shorttitle = {Peacemaking from above, peace from below},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Cornell university press},
	author = {Ripsman, Norrin M.},
	year = {2016},
}

@article{fehrsLettingBygonesBe2014,
	title = {Letting {Bygones} be {Bygones}: {Rapprochement} in {US} {Foreign} {Policy}},
	copyright = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm\_license\_1.1},
	issn = {17438586},
	shorttitle = {Letting {Bygones} be {Bygones}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/fpa/article-lookup/doi/10.1111/fpa.12055},
	doi = {10.1111/fpa.12055},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {Foreign Policy Analysis},
	author = {Fehrs, Matthew},
	month = apr,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {n/a--n/a},
}

@book{kupchanHowEnemiesBecome2012,
	address = {Princeton},
	edition = {3. printing and 1. paperback printing},
	series = {Princeton studies in international history and politics},
	title = {How enemies become friends: the sources of stable peace},
	isbn = {978-0-691-15438-1},
	shorttitle = {How enemies become friends},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Princeton Univ. Press},
	author = {Kupchan, Charles},
	year = {2012},
	annote = {Literaturverz. S. 415 - 429},
	annote = {Stable peace -- From international anarchy to international society -- Anglo-american rapprochement -- Rapprochement: supporting cases -- Security community -- Union -- Making friends and choosing friends},
}

@article{aldarReframingRemorseReassurance2021,
	title = {Reframing, {Remorse}, and {Reassurance}: {Remedial} {Work} in {Diplomatic} {Crises}},
	volume = {17},
	copyright = {https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open\_access/funder\_policies/chorus/standard\_publication\_model},
	issn = {1743-8586, 1743-8594},
	shorttitle = {Reframing, {Remorse}, and {Reassurance}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/fpa/article/doi/10.1093/fpa/orab018/6287910},
	doi = {10.1093/fpa/orab018},
	abstract = {Abstract
            This paper suggests a framework for studying how remedial actions are deployed following diplomatic crisis. On the basis of thirty-four case studies and twenty-one interviews with senior statespersons, we offer a novel typology of remedial strategies employed for diffusing interstate tension and pinpoint the various calculations taken by decision-makers in performing them. The analysis reveals three primary strategies for restoring diplomatic relations, the last of which was neglected thus far in the literature: reframing, wherein state actors negotiate the definition of transgressions and their responsibility for its occurrence; remorse, wherein the accused actors acknowledge ranging degrees of responsibility for committing wrongdoing; and finally, reassurance, wherein actors channel the remedial focus to the future relationship between the involved parties. Moreover, statespersons articulated several considerations taken into account when selecting a specific remedial strategy: the perceived value of the offended party, domestic political criticism, levels of publicity, adjusting a specific remedy to the target audience, and self-image. We conclude by discussing the value of remedial work for the study of diplomatic crises.
            Cet article suggère un cadre pour l’étude de la manière dont des actions correctives sont déployées suite à une crise diplomatique. Nous nous sommes basés sur trente-quatre études de cas et vingt-et-un entretiens avec des hauts responsables d’État pour proposer une nouvelle typologie des stratégies correctives employées pour atténuer la tension entre États et identifier les divers calculs effectués par les décideurs pour les exécuter. Cette analyse révèle trois principales stratégies de restauration des relations diplomatiques, et la dernière d'entre elles a jusqu'ici été négligée par la littérature: celle du recadrage, dans laquelle les acteurs étatiques négocient la définition des transgressions et leur responsabilité dans leur manifestation; celle du remords, dans laquelle les acteurs accusés admettent leurs divers degrés de responsabilité dans l'engagement dans une mauvaise conduite; et enfin, celle de la réassurance, dans laquelle les acteurs canalisent leur attention corrective sur la future relation entre les parties impliquées. De plus, les responsables d’État ont articulé plusieurs considérations prises en compte lors de la sélection d'une stratégie corrective spécifique: la valeur perçue de la partie offensée, la critique politique intérieure, les niveaux de publicité, l'adaptation d'une action corrective spécifique au public cible et l'image de soi. Nous concluons par une discussion sur la valeur du travail correctif pour l’étude des crises diplomatiques.
            Este artículo sugiere un marco para estudiar cómo se implementan las acciones correctivas tras una crisis diplomática. Sobre la base de treinta y cuatro estudios de casos y veintiuna entrevistas con altos cargos del estado, ofrecemos una novedosa tipología de las estrategias correctivas empleadas para rebajar las tensiones interestatales y señalamos los distintos cálculos realizados por los responsables al llevarlas a cabo. El análisis revela tres estrategias principales para el restablecimiento de las relaciones diplomáticas, esta última se no se había tenido en cuenta hasta ahora en la bibliografía: el replantamiento, en el que los actores estatales negocian la definición de las transgresiones y su responsabilidad; el remordimiento, en el que los actores acusados reconocen distintos grados de responsabilidad por cometer delitos; y, por último, la reafirmación, en la que los actores canalizan el enfoque correctivo hacia la futura relación entre las partes implicadas. Además, los cargos del estado expresaron varias consideraciones que se tienen en cuenta a la hora de seleccionar una estrategia correctiva específica: el valor percibido por la parte ofendida, la crítica política interna, los niveles de publicidad, el ajuste de las acciones correctivas específicas al público y la imagen propia. Concluimos con el análisis del valor del trabajo correctivo para el estudio de las crisis diplomáticas.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {Foreign Policy Analysis},
	author = {Aldar, Lee and Kampf, Zohar and Heimann, Gadi},
	month = may,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {orab018},
}

@article{berenjiEmpathyRiskTakingConcessionMaking2023,
	title = {Empathy, {Risk}-{Taking}, and {Concession}-{Making}: {Gorbachev}’s {Bold} {Proposals} at {Reykjavik} to {End} the {US}-{Soviet} {Arms} {Race}},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {0963-6412, 1556-1852},
	shorttitle = {Empathy, {Risk}-{Taking}, and {Concession}-{Making}},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636412.2023.2153730},
	doi = {10.1080/09636412.2023.2153730},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {Security Studies},
	author = {Berenji, Shahin},
	month = mar,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {306--337},
}

@article{kertzerPricePeaceMotivated2020,
	title = {The {Price} of {Peace}: {Motivated} {Reasoning} and {Costly} {Signaling} in {International} {Relations}},
	volume = {74},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {The {Price} of {Peace}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818319000328/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818319000328},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Canonical models of costly signaling in international relations (IR) tend to assume costly signals speak for themselves: a signal's costliness is typically understood to be a function of the signal, not the perceptions of the recipient. Integrating the study of signaling in IR with research on motivated skepticism and asymmetric updating from political psychology, we show that individuals’ tendencies to embrace information consistent with their overarching belief systems (and dismiss information inconsistent with it) has important implications for how signals are interpreted. We test our theory in the context of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran, combining two survey experiments fielded on members of the American mass public. We find patterns consistent with motivated skepticism: the individuals most likely to update their beliefs are those who need reassurance the least, such that costly signals cause polarization rather than convergence. Successful signaling therefore requires knowing something about the orientations of the signal's recipient.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Kertzer, Joshua D. and Rathbun, Brian C. and Rathbun, Nina Srinivasan},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {95--118},
}

@article{kohamaCraftingInternationalApologies2023,
	title = {Crafting international apologies that work: {A} conjoint analysis approach},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {0738-8942, 1549-9219},
	shorttitle = {Crafting international apologies that work},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/07388942221094761},
	doi = {10.1177/07388942221094761},
	abstract = {Apologies by political leaders to the citizens of a victimized country have attracted attention in recent years as a means of improving relations between nations. Existing studies have identified several elements that make such an apology effective, but from the politician's point of view, it is difficult to issue a statement containing all these elements, and they must then be chosen while considering domestic backlash and relations with countries other than the victimized one. However, it is not sufficiently clear how the victimized country's citizens weigh the elements of the apology when they accept it and how the nature of the harm caused changes this. Therefore, we conducted a survey experiment in Japan, adopting a conjoint design using scenarios depicting fictional US presidential apologies to Japan. Our experiment demonstrated three attributes particularly regarded as important in determining whether people would accept an apology: the reparation amount, whether the apology was official (formality), and the voluntariness of the apology. However, when something that people consider “sacred” has been harmed, reparation proposals are counterproductive, and the optimal apology form may depend on the nature of the harm.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
	author = {Kohama, Shoko and Himichi, Toshiyuki and Inamasu, Kazunori and Mifune, Nobuhiro and Ohtsubo, Yohsuke and Tago, Atsushi},
	month = jul,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {419--440},
}

@article{bayerPeacefulTransitionsDemocracy2010,
	title = {Peaceful transitions and democracy},
	volume = {47},
	copyright = {http://journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license},
	issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
	url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343310370102},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343310370102},
	abstract = {While there has been extensive interest in the role of democracy in reducing interstate violence, the role of democracy in reaching higher levels of peace has received much less attention. Since many countries have less than amicable relations, it is necessary to consider how the quality of peace can be improved. The quality of peace becomes particularly relevant when assessing relations of countries with a bellicose past. In order to capture improvement in relations, this article relies upon a framework that captures the various levels of peace that countries experience. The study maintains that democracy contributes to former belligerents reaching the highest levels of peace but that it is not helpful at the lower levels especially if only one side is a democracy. The article tests arguments on a dataset that captures the transitions from one level of peace to another for all former belligerents since 1816 and relies upon event history analysis. The results for peace are not the opposite of what is found for war. The findings demonstrate that democracy plays a substantial role in peaceful transitions at all levels. However, while joint democracy is important for reaching the highest levels of peace, democracy can hamper the progress of relations at the lowest levels of peace.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Bayer, Reşat},
	month = sep,
	year = {2010},
	pages = {535--546},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/PNWZCJVZ/Bayer - 2010 - Peaceful transitions and democracy.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{lindNarrativesInternationalReconciliation2020,
	title = {Narratives and {International} {Reconciliation}},
	volume = {5},
	copyright = {https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open\_access/funder\_policies/chorus/standard\_publication\_model},
	issn = {2057-3170, 2057-3189},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/jogss/article/5/2/229/5727514},
	doi = {10.1093/jogss/ogz072},
	abstract = {Abstract
            In relations between Japan and South Korea, as well as between other former adversaries, observers frequently argue that “history stands in the way” of better relations. They expect that hostile historical narratives will prevent leaders from pursuing potentially advantageous cooperation. To evaluate this claim, in this article I define narratives and their elements, noting that they range from more hostile to more friendly. I outline and theoretically develop two perspectives: the view of history as an obstacle, and a view more optimistic about the potential for cooperation and narrative transformation. Evidence from Franco-German relations after World War II, as well as other cases across time and space, supports the latter, more optimistic, view. Finally, I hypothesize different strategic and domestic conditions that make cooperation and narrative change more or less likely. Ultimately, I argue that observers have exaggerated the constraining power of narratives and thus underestimated the potential for cooperation between former enemies. This has important implications for relations between longtime rivals all over the world, and particularly in East Asia, where a conventional wisdom expects historical memories to impede balancing against China's rise.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {Journal of Global Security Studies},
	author = {Lind, Jennifer},
	month = apr,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {229--247},
}

@misc{grauvogelPublicOpinionSanctions2024a,
	title = {Public {Opinion} on {Sanctions} {Compliance} and {Evasion}: {Experimental} {Evidence} from the 2022–23 {Russia} {Sanctions}},
	copyright = {https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode},
	shorttitle = {Public {Opinion} on {Sanctions} {Compliance} and {Evasion}},
	url = {https://osf.io/7dsx4},
	doi = {10.31219/osf.io/7dsx4},
	abstract = {Private companies play a critical role for making economic sanctions work. They may circumvent sanctions, comply, or even limit their business activities beyond what is legally required. This phenomenon of “overcompliance” has often been attributed to public pressure. However, there is little research on public opinion towards corporate behavior regarding sanctions. We theorize that the stigma and information cues associated with sanctions make individuals more likely to support domestic firms withdrawing from a foreign country’s market after the imposition of sanctions, and more likely to disapprove of companies continuing their operations. Two pre-registered survey experiments of public opinion on the post-2022 Russia sanctions show two key findings: First, Germans indeed care about whether firms engage with Russia and disapprove of those who do. Second, firms choosing to continue legal business with Russia cannot argue their way out of this negative public assessment. We establish the generalizability of these results with three replication experiments that vary the identity of the sanctioned state and the nature of the event triggering sanctions.},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	author = {Grauvogel, Julia and Attia, Hana and Peez, Anton and Brettfeld, Katrin and Richter, Thomas and Wetzels, Peter},
	month = sep,
	year = {2024},
}

@article{earlySanctionsAlwaysStigmatize2016,
	title = {Do {Sanctions} {Always} {Stigmatize}? {The} {Effects} of {Economic} {Sanctions} on {Foreign} {Aid}},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {0305-0629, 1547-7444},
	shorttitle = {Do {Sanctions} {Always} {Stigmatize}?},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03050629.2016.1093477},
	doi = {10.1080/03050629.2016.1093477},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {International Interactions},
	author = {Early, Bryan R. and Jadoon, Amira},
	month = mar,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {217--243},
}

@article{baldwinSanctionsDebateLogic2000,
	title = {The {Sanctions} {Debate} and the {Logic} of {Choice}},
	volume = {24},
	issn = {0162-2889, 1531-4804},
	url = {https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/24/3/80-107/11641},
	doi = {10.1162/016228899560248},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2024-09-03},
	journal = {International Security},
	author = {Baldwin, David A.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2000},
	pages = {80--107},
}

@book{dellmuth2022citizens,
	title = {Citizens, elites, and the legitimacy of global governance},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Dellmuth, Lisa and Scholte, Jan Aart and Tallberg, Jonas and Verhaegen, Soetkin},
	year = {2022},
}

@article{farjamBandwagonEffectOnline2021,
	title = {The {Bandwagon} {Effect} in an {Online} {Voting} {Experiment} {With} {Real} {Political} {Organizations}},
	volume = {33},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/},
	issn = {0954-2892, 1471-6909},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/ijpor/article/33/2/412/5857291},
	doi = {10.1093/ijpor/edaa008},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-12-08},
	journal = {International Journal of Public Opinion Research},
	author = {Farjam, Mike},
	month = aug,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {412--421},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/C2YW3GD7/Farjam - 2021 - The Bandwagon Effect in an Online Voting Experimen.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{findleyWhoControlsForeign2017,
	title = {Who {Controls} {Foreign} {Aid}? {Elite} versus {Public} {Perceptions} of {Donor} {Influence} in {Aid}-{Dependent} {Uganda}},
	volume = {71},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {Who {Controls} {Foreign} {Aid}?},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0020818317000273/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818317000273},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Does foreign aid enable or constrain elite capture of public revenues? Reflecting on prominent debates in the foreign aid literature, we examine whether recipient preferences are consistent with a view that foreign donors wield substantial control over the flow of aid dollars, making elite capture more difficult and mass benefits more likely. We compare elite and mass support for foreign aid versus government spending on development projects through a survey experiment with behavioral outcomes. A key innovation is a parallel experiment on members of the Ugandan national parliament and a representative sample of Ugandan citizens. For two actual aid projects, we randomly assigned different funders to the projects. Significant treatment effects reveal that members of parliament support government programs over foreign aid, whereas citizens prefer aid over government. Donor control also implies that citizens should favor foreign aid more and elites less as their perceptions of government clientelism and corruption increase. We explore this and report on other alternative mechanisms. Effects for citizens and elites are most apparent for those perceiving significant government corruption, suggesting that both sets of subjects perceive significant donor control over aid.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-12-08},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Findley, Michael G. and Harris, Adam S. and Milner, Helen V. and Nielson, Daniel L.},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {633--663},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/GRDMXRDN/Findley et al. - 2017 - Who Controls Foreign Aid Elite versus Public Perc.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{hamanakaSensitivityCasualtiesBattlefield2018,
	title = {Sensitivity to {Casualties} in the {Battlefield}: {The} {Case} of {Israel}},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {2057-8911, 2057-892X},
	shorttitle = {Sensitivity to {Casualties} in the {Battlefield}},
	url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2057891117725209},
	doi = {10.1177/2057891117725209},
	abstract = {This study examines how long the Israeli people support the government for an ongoing war. The rally-round-the-flag phenomenon, proclaiming that wartime governments can enjoy majority public support at the beginning of wars, is a challenging topic in the field of International Relations. Although this effect was noticed at the time of the Second Lebanon War, it remains unclear which particular condition determined the duration of public support in Israel. While the rally effect is a universal phenomenon, it is important to keep in mind the particularity of Israel. We hold on to an alternative theory, bandwagon effect, emphasizing the role of affectivity of individuals on the flow of information in crisis, in place of the standard rational expectation theory. An original experimental survey was conducted to examine the bandwagon effect in the rally phenomenon among Israeli citizens.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-12-08},
	journal = {Asian Journal of Comparative Politics},
	author = {Hamanaka, Shingo},
	month = mar,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {46--60},
}

@article{hafner-burtonDecisionMakerPreferences2014a,
	title = {Decision {Maker} {Preferences} for {International} {Legal} {Cooperation}},
	volume = {68},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S002081831400023X/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S002081831400023X},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Why do some decision makers prefer big multilateral agreements while others prefer cooperation in small clubs? Does enforcement encourage or deter institutional cooperation? We use experiments drawn from behavioral economics and cognitive psychology—along with a substantive survey focused on international trade—to illustrate how two behavioral traits (patience and strategic reasoning) of individuals who play key roles in negotiating and ratifying an international treaty shape their preferences for how treaties are designed and whether they are ratified. Patient subjects were more likely to prefer treaties with larger numbers of countries (and larger long-term benefits), as were subjects with the skill to anticipate how others will respond over multiple iterations of strategic games. The presence of an enforcement mechanism increased subjects' willingness to ratify treaties; however, strategic reasoning had double the effect of adding enforcement to a trade agreement: more strategic subjects were particularly likely to favor ratifying the agreement. We report these results for a sample of 509 university students and also show how similar patterns are revealed in a unique sample of ninety-two actual US policy elites. Under some conditions certain types of university student convenience samples can be useful for revealing elite-dominated policy preferences—different types of people in the same situation may prefer to approach decision-making tasks and reason through trade-offs in materially different ways.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2024-12-08},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. and LeVeck, Brad L. and Victor, David G. and Fowler, James H.},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {845--876},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/VHUZ7BEZ/Hafner-Burton et al. - 2014 - Decision Maker Preferences for International Legal.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{jost2018socialized,
	title = {Socialized hawks? {How} selection explains military attitudes on the use of force. {Working} paper.},
	url = {www.tylerjost.com/uploads/1/1/0/4/110425699/socializedhawks_full.pdf},
	author = {Jost, Tyler and Meshkin, Kaine and Schub, Robert},
	year = {2018},
}

@article{lanoue1998picking,
	title = {Picking the winners: perceptions of party viability and their impact on voting behavior},
	volume = {79},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Social Science Quarterly},
	author = {Lanoue, David J and Bowler, Shaun},
	year = {1998},
	note = {Publisher: JSTOR},
	pages = {361--377},
}

@article{marshBackBandwagonEffect1985,
	title = {Back on the {Bandwagon}: {The} {Effect} of {Opinion} {Polls} on {Public} {Opinion}},
	volume = {15},
	copyright = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms},
	issn = {0007-1234, 1469-2112},
	shorttitle = {Back on the {Bandwagon}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0007123400004063/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/S0007123400004063},
	abstract = {The bandwagon was the caravan in a circus that carried the band, and usually took the lead in a procession. It has come to stand as a symbol for a party or a cause which is successful; we talk of people wanting to climb on to a bandwagon when their desire to be associated with the winning party or cause is strong. A ‘bandwagon effect’ is the label given by social scientists to a situation where the information about majority opinion itself causes some people to adopt the majority view for whatever reason; conversely, an ‘underdog’ effect is held to exist if the information causes some people to adopt a minority view. Processes of this kind are of theoretical interest because they affect the possibility of stable prediction in the social sciences; if the very act of predicting that one party will win an election can be a self-fulfilling prophecy then the natural scientific model of the social sciences may be compromised. Bandwagon processes are also of practical importance to pollsters, since the professional nature of their trade might also be compromised if their predictions could be shown to be interfering in political reality. These effects have therefore received a fair amount of attention in the literature. The main context studied has been the effect of exposure to an opinion poll on the general public. In this article, I shall first examine the existing evidence for poll effects of this kind, and then present and discuss a study of such effects.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-12-08},
	journal = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Marsh, Catherine},
	month = jan,
	year = {1985},
	pages = {51--74},
}

@book{mutzImpersonalInfluenceHow1998,
	address = {Cambridge},
	series = {Cambridge studies in public opinion and political psychology},
	title = {Impersonal influence: how perceptions of mass collectives affect political attitudes},
	isbn = {978-0-521-63726-8 978-1-139-17507-4},
	shorttitle = {Impersonal influence},
	abstract = {People's perceptions of the attitudes and experiences of mass collectives are an increasingly important force in contemporary political life. In Impersonal Influence, Mutz goes beyond simply providing examples of how impersonal influence matters in the political process to provide a micro-level understanding of why information about distant and impersonal others often influence people's political attitudes and behaviors. Impersonal Influence is worthy of attention both from the standpoint of its impact on contemporary politics, and because of its potential to expand the boundaries of our understanding of social influence processes, and media's relation to them. The book's conclusions do not exonerate media from the effects of inaccurate portrayals of collective experience or opinion, but they suggest that the ways in which people are influenced by these perceptions are in themselves, not so much deleterious to democracy as absolutely necessary to promoting accountability in a large scale society},
	language = {eng},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Mutz, Diana Carole},
	year = {1998},
	doi = {10.1017/CBO9781139175074},
	annote = {Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015)},
}

@article{nadeauNewEvidenceExistence1993,
	title = {New {Evidence} {About} the {Existence} of a {Bandwagon} {Effect} in the {Opinion} {Formation} {Process}},
	volume = {14},
	copyright = {https://journals.sagepub.com/page/policies/text-and-data-mining-license},
	issn = {0192-5121, 1460-373X},
	url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/019251219301400204},
	doi = {10.1177/019251219301400204},
	abstract = {This study undertakes an empirical test of the "bandwagon effect"—individuals rallying to the majority opinion. The study is done outside the electoral context on two issues: abortion and the constitutional future of Quebec. A panel is used, as well as an experimental design in which respondents are told the state and direction of public opinion. Three methodological criteria are used as minimal requirements for a satisfac tory test of the bandwagon thesis. "Underdogging," as well as opinion movement due to factors outside the experiment, are both accounted for. Though the reasons for a bandwagon remain unclear, the authors demon strate that a bandwagon effect of 5-7 percent existed on both issues.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-12-08},
	journal = {International Political Science Review},
	author = {Nadeau, Richard and Cloutier, Edouard and Guay, J.-H.},
	month = apr,
	year = {1993},
	pages = {203--213},
}

@article{rikerPoliticalPsychologyRational1995,
	title = {The {Political} {Psychology} of {Rational} {Choice} {Theory}},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {0162895X},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/3791448?origin=crossref},
	doi = {10.2307/3791448},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2024-12-08},
	journal = {Political Psychology},
	author = {Riker, William H.},
	month = mar,
	year = {1995},
	pages = {23},
}

@article{rothschildArePublicOpinion2014,
	title = {Are public opinion polls self-fulfilling prophecies?},
	volume = {1},
	issn = {2053-1680, 2053-1680},
	url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053168014547667},
	doi = {10.1177/2053168014547667},
	abstract = {Psychologists have long observed that people conform to majority opinion, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the ‘bandwagon effect’. In the political domain people learn about prevailing public opinion via ubiquitous polls, which may produce a bandwagon effect. Newer types of information – published probabilities derived from prediction market contract prices and aggregated polling summaries – may have similar effects. Consequently, polls can become self-fulfilling prophecies whereby majorities, whether in support of candidates or policies, grow in a cascading manner. Despite increased attention to whether the measurement of public opinion can itself affect public opinion, the existing empirical literature is surprisingly limited on the bandwagon effects of polls. To address this gap, we conducted an experiment on a diverse national sample in which we randomly assigned people to receive information about different levels of support for three public policies. We find that public opinion as expressed through polls affects individual-level attitudes, although the size of the effect depends on issue characteristics.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-12-08},
	journal = {Research \& Politics},
	author = {Rothschild, David and Malhotra, Neil},
	month = jul,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {2053168014547667},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/DCQ9HELT/Rothschild and Malhotra - 2014 - Are public opinion polls self-fulfilling prophecie.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@incollection{schmitt-beckBandwagonEffect2015,
	title = {Bandwagon {Effect}},
	copyright = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm\_license\_1.1},
	isbn = {978-1-118-29075-0 978-1-118-54155-5},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781118541555.wbiepc015},
	abstract = {Abstract
            The term “bandwagon effect” denotes a phenomenon of public opinion impinging upon itself: In their political preferences and positions people tend to join what they perceive to be existing or expected majorities or dominant positions in society. It has been most intensely discussed with regard to elections and issue attitudes. Only in recent years have carefully designed studies succeeded in demonstrating that bandwagon effects really exist. However, the observed bandwagon effects have usually been rather weak, and contingent on specific conditions.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2024-12-08},
	booktitle = {The {International} {Encyclopedia} of {Political} {Communication}},
	publisher = {Wiley},
	author = {Schmitt‐Beck, Rüdiger},
	editor = {Mazzoleni, Gianpietro},
	month = jul,
	year = {2015},
	doi = {10.1002/9781118541555.wbiepc015},
	pages = {1--5},
}

@book{pageForeignPolicyDisconnect2006a,
	address = {Chicago},
	series = {American politics and political economy},
	title = {The foreign policy disconnect: what {Americans} want from our leaders but don't get},
	isbn = {978-0-226-64461-5 978-0-226-64462-2},
	shorttitle = {The foreign policy disconnect},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	author = {Page, Benjamin I. and Bouton, Marshall M.},
	year = {2006},
	note = {OCLC: ocm67239574},
	keywords = {United States, Foreign relations Decision making, 2001-2009, Foreign relations Public opinion, Public opinion},
	annote = {Introduction : what sort of foreign policy? -- Taking public opinion seriously -- The goals of security and justice -- Friends and foes in the world -- Military strength and the use of force -- Political cooperation -- Economic well-being and economic justice -- A disconnect between policy makers and the public? -- Conclusion : foreign policy and democracy},
}

@article{findleyChoiceAidDonors2017,
	title = {The choice among aid donors: {The} effects of multilateral vs. bilateral aid on recipient behavioral support},
	volume = {12},
	issn = {1559-7431, 1559-744X},
	shorttitle = {The choice among aid donors},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11558-017-9275-2},
	doi = {10.1007/s11558-017-9275-2},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2024-12-08},
	journal = {The Review of International Organizations},
	author = {Findley, Michael G. and Milner, Helen V. and Nielson, Daniel L.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {307--334},
}

@article{smetanaElitepublicGapsSupport2024,
	title = {Elite-public gaps in support for nuclear and chemical strikes: {New} evidence from a survey of {British} parliamentarians and citizens},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {2053-1680, 2053-1680},
	shorttitle = {Elite-public gaps in support for nuclear and chemical strikes},
	url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20531680241276795},
	doi = {10.1177/20531680241276795},
	abstract = {In this research article, we provide empirical evidence for the hypothesis that there are substantial elite-public gaps in attitudes toward the military use of nuclear and chemical weapons. We designed and preregistered an original survey investigating support for nuclear and chemical strikes in a hypothetical scenario and fielded it to representative samples of British citizens and parliamentarians. Our results provide strong empirical support for the elite-public gap hypothesis, with the parliamentarians expressing a significantly stronger aversion to nuclear and chemical use than the public respondents. These findings contribute to contemporary scholarly debates on the nature and strength of nuclear and chemical weapon “taboos” in world politics.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2024-12-08},
	journal = {Research \& Politics},
	author = {Smetana, Michal and Vranka, Marek and Rosendorf, Ondrej},
	month = jul,
	year = {2024},
	pages = {20531680241276795},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/UC99P66I/Smetana et al. - 2024 - Elite-public gaps in support for nuclear and chemi.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{peezDoesPublicOpinion2025,
	title = {Does {Public} {Opinion} on {Foreign} {Policy} {Affect} {Elite} {Preferences}? {Evidence} from the 2022 {US} {Sanctions} against {Russia}},
	volume = {69},
	copyright = {https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},
	issn = {0020-8833, 1468-2478},
	shorttitle = {Does {Public} {Opinion} on {Foreign} {Policy} {Affect} {Elite} {Preferences}?},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/doi/10.1093/isq/sqae145/7929343},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqae145},
	abstract = {Abstract
            Does public opinion on international affairs affect elites’ policy preferences? Most research assumes that it does, but this key assumption is difficult to test empirically given limited research access to elite decision-makers. We examine elite responsiveness to public opinion on sanctioning Russia during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. We fielded a preregistered experiment within the 2022 TRIP survey of US foreign policy practitioners, offering a rare opportunity for a fairly large elite survey experiment (\$N = 253\$). We used contemporary public polling highly supportive of increasing sanctions as an information treatment. Our research design, involving a salient issue and real-world treatment, substantially expands on previous work. Exposure to the treatment raises elite support for increasing sanctions from 68.0 percent to 76.3 percent (+8.3 pp.). While meaningful, this effect is smaller than those identified elsewhere. We argue that this difference is driven by pretreatment dynamics related to issue salience and ceiling effects and is therefore all the more notable. We provide evidence for substantial treatment effect heterogeneity depending on subject-matter expertise, degree of involvement in political decision-making, and gender, but not party identification. While our results support previous research, they highlight issues of external validity and the context-dependence of elite responsiveness.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2025-01-20},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Peez, Anton and Bethke, Felix S.},
	year = {2025},
	pages = {sqae145},
}

@article{meiLeadercontingentSanctionsCause2024,
	title = {Leader-contingent sanctions as a cause of violent political conflict},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},
	issn = {2049-8470, 2049-8489},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S204984702400013X/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/psrm.2024.13},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              Economic sanctions are a policy tool that great powers frequently use to interfere with domestic politics of another state. Regime change has been a primary goal of economic sanctions over the past decades. This article studies the relationship between
              leader-contingent sanctions
              —sanctions that are designed to impede the flow of revenue to a specific leader—and violent political conflict in target countries. I build a theoretical model to illuminate two mechanisms by which leader-contingent sanctions destabilize a regime—the
              Depletion Mechanism
              and the
              Instigation Mechanism
              . The Depletion Mechanism works when sanctions mechanically deplete the government's resources so that it becomes unable to buy off domestic opposition even by making the largest possible offer. The Instigation Mechanism implies that as sanctions decrease the benefit of negotiated settlement relative to war, the government may strategically choose to repress rather than buy off the opposition even when it is able to do so. Leader-contingent sanctions lead to bargaining failure by rewarding the opposition for revolt while reducing the government's ability and willingness to appease the opposition.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2025-01-21},
	journal = {Political Science Research and Methods},
	author = {Mei, Yu},
	year = {2024},
	pages = {1--20},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/3RT3TTI9/Mei - 2024 - Leader-contingent sanctions as a cause of violent .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{beiser-mcgrathSeparationRareEvents2022,
	title = {Separation and {Rare} {Events}},
	volume = {10},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/},
	issn = {2049-8470, 2049-8489},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2049847020000461/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/psrm.2020.46},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              When separation is a problem in binary dependent variable models, many researchers use Firth's penalized maximum likelihood in order to obtain finite estimates (Firth, 1993; Zorn, 2005; Rainey, 2016). In this paper, I show that this approach can lead to inferences in the opposite direction of the separation when the number of observations are sufficiently large and both the dependent and independent variables are rare events. As large datasets with rare events are frequently used in political science, such as dyadic data measuring interstate relations, a lack of awareness of this problem may lead to inferential issues. Simulations and an empirical illustration show that the use of independent “weakly-informative” prior distributions centered at zero, for example, the Cauchy prior suggested by Gelman
              et al.
              (2008), can avoid this issue. More generally, the results caution researchers to be aware of how the choice of prior interacts with the structure of their data, when estimating models in the presence of separation.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2025-01-21},
	journal = {Political Science Research and Methods},
	author = {Beiser-McGrath, Liam F.},
	year = {2022},
	pages = {428--437},
	file = {Full Text:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/9D2VBDSS/Beiser-McGrath - 2022 - Separation and Rare Events.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{thoemmesSystematicReviewPropensity2011,
	title = {A {Systematic} {Review} of {Propensity} {Score} {Methods} in the {Social} {Sciences}},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {0027-3171, 1532-7906},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00273171.2011.540475},
	doi = {10.1080/00273171.2011.540475},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2025-02-24},
	journal = {Multivariate Behavioral Research},
	author = {Thoemmes, Felix J. and Kim, Eun Sook},
	month = feb,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {90--118},
}

@misc{greiferMatchItGettingStarted2025,
	title = {{MatchIt}: {Getting} {Started}},
	url = {https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/MatchIt/vignettes/MatchIt.html},
	author = {Greifer, Noah},
	year = {2025},
}

@article{diamondGeneticMatchingEstimating2013,
	title = {Genetic {Matching} for {Estimating} {Causal} {Effects}: {A} {General} {Multivariate} {Matching} {Method} for {Achieving} {Balance} in {Observational} {Studies}},
	volume = {95},
	issn = {0034-6535, 1530-9142},
	shorttitle = {Genetic {Matching} for {Estimating} {Causal} {Effects}},
	url = {https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article/95/3/932-945/58101},
	doi = {10.1162/REST_a_00318},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2025-02-24},
	journal = {Review of Economics and Statistics},
	author = {Diamond, Alexis and Sekhon, Jasjeet S.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {932--945},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/HBV7PMSB/Diamond and Sekhon - 2013 - Genetic Matching for Estimating Causal Effects A .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{hansenOptimalFullMatching2006,
	title = {Optimal {Full} {Matching} and {Related} {Designs} via {Network} {Flows}},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1061-8600, 1537-2715},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/106186006X137047},
	doi = {10.1198/106186006X137047},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2025-02-24},
	journal = {Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics},
	author = {Hansen, Ben B and Klopfer, Stephanie Olsen},
	month = sep,
	year = {2006},
	pages = {609--627},
	file = {Submitted Version:/Users/Anjo/Zotero/storage/RRFP65ZM/Hansen and Klopfer - 2006 - Optimal Full Matching and Related Designs via Netw.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{heissUltimatePracticalGuide2023,
	title = {The ultimate practical guide to conjoint analysis with {R}},
	copyright = {https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode},
	shorttitle = {Conjoint analysis with {R}},
	url = {https://www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2023/07/25/conjoint-bayesian-frequentist-guide},
	doi = {10.59350/xgwjy-dyj66},
	abstract = {In my research, I study international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs) and look at how lots of different institutional and organizational factors influence INGO behavior. For instance, many authoritarian regimes have passed anti-NGO laws and engaged in other forms of legal crackdown, which has forced NGOs to change their programming strategies and their sources of funding.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2025-02-26},
	journal = {Andrew Heiss' Blog},
	author = {Heiss, Andrew},
	year = {2023},
	note = {10.59350/xgwjy-dyj66},
}

@misc{hlavacOaxacaBlinderOaxacaDecomposition2014,
	title = {oaxaca: {Blinder}-{Oaxaca} {Decomposition}},
	shorttitle = {oaxaca},
	url = {https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=oaxaca},
	doi = {10.32614/CRAN.package.oaxaca},
	abstract = {An implementation of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition for linear regression models.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2025-03-12},
	author = {Hlavac, Marek},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	note = {Institution: Comprehensive R Archive Network
Pages: 0.1.5},
}

@article{huberPublicPerceptionsWomen2024,
	title = {Public {Perceptions} of {Women} {Peacekeepers} in {Troop} {Contributing} {Countries}},
	volume = {21},
	copyright = {https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open\_access/funder\_policies/chorus/standard\_publication\_model},
	issn = {1743-8586, 1743-8594},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/fpa/article/doi/10.1093/fpa/orae037/7934795},
	doi = {10.1093/fpa/orae037},
	abstract = {Abstract
            A belief that women's representation increases legitimacy informs United Nations peacekeeping policies and the foreign policy agendas of many states. However, we do not know how women's participation alters support for UN peacekeeping within troop contributing countries. Based on gender stereotypes, the public may assume that women peacekeepers indicate that peacekeeping missions are more legitimate, which may increase support. Yet, if women peacekeepers are harmed, this may decrease support due to the gendered protection norm. Moreover, exposure to women peacekeepers may challenge gender roles. Using survey experiments in India and South Africa, this study finds that women peacekeepers’ deployment or death does not impact support for peacekeeping. However, exposure to women's casualties increases support for women's rights to some extent. Further, a survey of representatives of the UN Special Committee on Peacekeeping Operations reveals gaps between decision-makers’ beliefs about how women peacekeepers impact public support and the experimental findings.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2025-04-11},
	journal = {Foreign Policy Analysis},
	author = {Huber, Laura},
	month = oct,
	year = {2024},
}

@article{kangEconomicSanctionsRepression2023,
	title = {Economic sanctions, repression capacity, and human rights},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {1475-4835, 1475-4843},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14754835.2022.2096404},
	doi = {10.1080/14754835.2022.2096404},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2025-05-06},
	journal = {Journal of Human Rights},
	author = {Kang, Sinjae and Lee, Sangmin and Whang, Taehee},
	month = mar,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {174--197},
}

@article{petersonTakingCueResponse2014a,
	title = {Taking the cue: {The} response to {US} human rights sanctions against third parties},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {0738-8942, 1549-9219},
	shorttitle = {Taking the cue},
	url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0738894213503432},
	doi = {10.1177/0738894213503432},
	abstract = {Although scholars have suggested that sanctions could have an international symbolic effect in which they inform third parties of sender preferences and resolve, studies have not examined whether and when sanctions against one state lead other states to change similar proscribed behavior. In this paper, I examine whether abusive regimes change their respect for physical integrity rights when they witness US human rights sanctions against third parties. Synthesizing contributions from the literatures on sanction effectiveness, reputation and human rights promotion, I develop a new theory asserting that human rights sanctions can motivate leaders in non-sanctioned states to improve their human rights practices proactively—or at least to prevent worsened abuse—when they perceive themselves as sufficiently similar to the sanction target. I find support for my expectations in stratified Cox proportional hazards models using data spanning 1976–2000.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2025-05-06},
	journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
	author = {Peterson, Timothy M.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {145--167},
}

@article{marinov2015sanctions,
	title = {Sanctions and democracy},
	volume = {41},
	number = {4},
	journal = {International Interactions},
	author = {Marinov, Nikolay and Nili, Shmuel},
	year = {2015},
	note = {Publisher: Taylor \& Francis},
	pages = {765--778},
}

@article{cordaIngroupWeTrust2024,
	title = {In-group we trust, no more? {How} senders’ legitimacy shapes the success of sanctions-based democracy promotion},
	issn = {0010-8367, 1460-3691},
	shorttitle = {In-group we trust, no more?},
	url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00108367241298929},
	doi = {10.1177/00108367241298929},
	abstract = {For decades, pro-democracy states and organizations have been using coercive measures such as sanctions to promote and uphold democratic governance worldwide, yet not always successfully. Recent research has improved our knowledge on such ‘democracy sanctions’, but our understanding of how the different identities of sanctioners shape their success is not complete yet. Focusing on Africa, one of the biggest recipients of such measures but also a primary sender of them especially through the African Union, this article aims to systematically compare how the sanctioning behaviour of regional and extra-regional actors has impacted on the democratic status of the continent since the 1990s. The empirical analysis reconsiders the comparative advantage of regional actors’ legitimacy to explain the likelihood of democracy sanctions success. It shows that ‘in-group’ democracy sanctions in which regional organizations are involved have bigger chances of success than those imposed by higher-capacity yet less-legitimate extra-regional actors only. However, it also shows in-group legitimacy can erode and that cooperation with such local organizations can help contain global democratic erosion, but hardly achieve democratic deepening, due to soft, face-saving compliance criteria and different understandings democracy and its promotion have across the world.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2025-05-06},
	journal = {Cooperation and Conflict},
	author = {Corda, Tiziana},
	month = nov,
	year = {2024},
	pages = {00108367241298929},
}

@article{portelaWhereWhyDoes2005a,
	title = {Where and why does the {EU} impose sanctions?},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {1623-6297},
	shorttitle = {Where and why does the {EU} impose sanctions?},
	url = {https://www.cairn.info/revue-politique-europeenne-2005-3-page-83.htm?ref=doi},
	doi = {10.3917/poeu.017.0083},
	abstract = {This article explores whether the EU behaves differently as a sanctioning actor towards its geographic vicinity than to regions further afield. It looks at the security relevance of the objectives advanced by sanctions, as well as the interplay between objectives and the geographic proximity of the targets to the EU in its autonomous sanctions practice (1987-2003). It identifies a pattern of geographic differentiation: Eastern Europe has been targeted for the widest variety of reasons, while in the Southern Mediterranean the only focus has been on terrorism. In Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa most sanctions have been geared towards the promotion of democracy and Human Rights.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2025-05-06},
	journal = {Politique européenne},
	author = {Portela, Clara},
	month = sep,
	year = {2005},
	pages = {83--111},
}

@article{grauvogelClaimsLegitimacyCount2014,
	title = {Claims to legitimacy count: {Why} sanctions fail to instigate democratisation in authoritarian regimes},
	volume = {53},
	copyright = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions\#vor},
	issn = {0304-4130, 1475-6765},
	shorttitle = {Claims to legitimacy count},
	url = {https://ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1475-6765.12065},
	doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12065},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              International sanctions are one of the most commonly used tools to instigate democratisation in the post‐
              C
              old
              W
              ar era. However, despite long‐term sanction pressure by the
              E
              uropean
              U
              nion, the
              U
              nited
              S
              tates and/or the
              U
              nited
              N
              ations, non‐democratic rule has proven to be extremely persistent. Which domestic and international factors account for the regimes' ability to resist external pressure? Based on a new global dataset on sanctions from 1990 to 2011, the results of a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (
              fsQCA
              ) provide new insights for the research on sanctions and on authoritarian regimes. Most significantly, sanctions strengthen authoritarian rule if the regime manages to incorporate their existence into its legitimation strategy. Such an unintended ‘rally‐round‐the‐flag’ effect occurs where sanctions are imposed on regimes that possess strong claims to legitimacy and have only limited economic and societal linkages to the sender of sanctions.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2025-05-19},
	journal = {European Journal of Political Research},
	author = {Grauvogel, Julia and Von Soest, Christian},
	month = nov,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {635--653},
}
